Fall racing returns to Keeneland Race Course as the annual October season gets ready to open for its 17-day meet from Friday, Oct. 4 to Saturday, Oct. 26.  Keeneland will attract big fields and quality horses to offer something for all horseplayers, including top 2-year-old racing, great turf racing, and top-rung racing and wagering at all levels in the heart of Bluegrass country in Lexington, Ky.

Keeneland’s 22 fall stakes races will offer combined purses of $9.85 million and will include six Grade 1 races – five of which are run on opening “Fall Stars Weekend,” Oct. 4-6. The Keeneland fall meet also will be extremely important in terms of the Breeders’ Cup with Fall Stars Weekend hosting eight Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” races.

As good as Keeneland’s opening weekend will be, there will still be three great weeks of racing to follow for racing fans and handicappers to enjoy. Let’s look at some factors that can help you make winning bets at the Keeneland fall meet.

Keeneland main track winning trends

Keeneland’s race meet comes and goes fast, so the time is now for handicappers to start brushing up on the things they need to know to cash tickets during the fall season.

Horses break from the starting gate on the main track at Keeneland. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Let’s start by looking at sprints in order to find the preferred Keeneland main track running styles. In dirt sprints, Keeneland definitely is one of the tracks where you don’t want to bet on horses trying to come from too far off the pace. Horses benefit by staying within four lengths of the front, and speed horses on the lead or within a length of the pace have the best chance to win.

In 137 dirt sprints run at the last two Keeneland meets (2023 fall meet and 2024 spring meet), 76 were won by horses on or close to the pace accounting for 55% of the winners. Stalkers won 50 times accounting for 36% of the dirt sprint wins. Late runners closing from four or more lengths off the lead won only 11 races for 8%. With an average dirt sprint field size of 8.66 runners per race, there was little or no favoritism in terms of inside, middle, or outside post positions.

Dirt routes at Keeneland over the course of the last year have also been fair in terms of post positions with an average field size of 7.72 runners per race. An analysis of the preferred running styles in dirt routes shows front-end favoritism, but not nearly as strong as in sprints. Horses on or close to the lead won 34 of the 78 dirt routes run the last year accounting for 44%. Stalkers won 26 races accounting for 33% of the wins, and closers won 18 times (23% of the races).

Based on these stats in both main track sprints and routes therefore, a horses’ chances of winning decrease based on how far off the pace it will be in the race.

Keeneland fall turf tips

One of the staples of the quality day-to-day racing at Keeneland is high-quality turf racing, which typically features full competitive fields.

Horses race on the turf course at Keeneland. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The winning track profile is different in Keeneland turf routes than it is in dirt races. All running styles and post positions have decent chances in Keeneland turf routes based on stats from the past year, but there is a running style preference toward off-the-pace horses. In 69 turf routes run at the 2023 fall and 2024 spring meets, stalkers had the edge with horses racing between 1-4 lengths off the pace winning 29 times accounting for 42% of the races. Late runners coming from at least four lengths off the pace won 21 races (30%), and horses racing on or close to the pace fared the worst with 19 wins in the 69 turf routes (28%).

Turf routes had an average field size of 10.4 horses per race and inside, middle, and outside posts have all been fair the past year in Keeneland turf routes. If there is any handicapping angle to be found in those post position statistics, it’s that outside draws starting at post-position 7 actually did the best, winning 39% of the turf routes as opposed to posts 1-3 that yielded winners in 35% of the races and posts 4-6 that yielded winners in 26% of the races. Many handicappers downgrade the chances of outside horses in turf routes, and if that’s the case, you should be able to find live overlays on overlooked outside horses in Keeneland turf routes.

Keeneland doesn’t card many turf sprints. There were only a total of 27 turf sprints run at the 2023 fall and 2024 spring meets combined, and a total of 53 turf sprints run dating back two years. Early speed, stalking, and closing running styles all had similar success in the turf sprints. The one statistical advantage shown in these races during the last two years favored outside horses drawn in posts 7 and higher. Those horses from outside posts did the best, winning 22 of the 53 races to account for wins in 42% of the turf sprints.

Keeneland fall meet jockeys to watch

Gaffalione after a win last fall at Keeneland. (Eclipse Sportswire)

The jockey title at the corresponding 2023 Keeneland fall meet was won by Tyler Gaffalione who had 25 winners to top runner-up Luis Saez’s 20 winners. Saez, who won the 2022 Keeneland fall meet title 21 wins to 20 over Gaffalione, was returning from an injury last year and missed the first few days of the meet. This sets up an interesting battle to see who will prevail atop the jockey standings this season with Gaffalione and Saez very likely leading the way.

Flavien Prat finished third at the 2023 fall meet with 16 winners, followed by John Velazquez with 10 winners. Ricardo Santana Jr. rounded out the top 5 with eight wins.

Other jockeys who could make their presence felt in the 2024 Keeneland jockey standings include Joel Rosario (five wins in 2023 and 13 wins in 2022), Florent Geroux (six wins in 2023 and 12 wins in 2022), and Brian Hernandez Jr. (six wins each of the past two fall meets).

Keeneland fall leading trainer trends

Brad Cox at Keeneland. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Brad Cox won the corresponding Keeneland fall meet training title in 2023 with 13 winners from 57 starters for 23%. Chad Brown was second with seven winners from 23 starters, but it should be noted he had a significantly higher 30% win percentage. Cox also won the 2022 Keeneland fall meet training title with 11 wins as Todd Pletcher and Wesley Ward finished close behind with 10 wins apiece. Cox, Brown, Pletcher, and Ward all should be among the top trainers at the 2024 Keeneland fall meet.

Besides Brown, some of the other trainers who earned high win percentages at last year’s Keeneland fall meet included Chris Hartman (6-for-24, 25%), Tom Amoss (5-for-18, 28%), Phil Bauer (4-for-9, 44%), and Ben Colebrook (4-for-12, 33%). Illinois-based Armando Hernandez won three of his four starts.

Handicappers also might be interested to know something about the trainers who had disappointing seasons at the Keeneland fall meet in 2023. That group included Rusty Arnold (0-for-22 after going 1-for-26 in 2022), D. Wayne Lukas (0-for-15), Ron Moquett, (0-for-20), Al Stall Jr. (0-for-14), Wayne Catalano (0-for-15), Saffie Joseph Jr. (1-for-16), and Brian Lynch (1-for-17).

Hopefully these tips and trends from Keeneland can help you have a successful fall season in 2024. Enjoy the meet and best of luck.