The Grade 2, $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes features a field of 10 vying for important “Road to the Derby” qualifying points as well as excellent prize money.
In terms of name recognition among this talented field of 2-year-olds, Jonathan’s Way is first as he won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs in September before a seventh-place finish in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile presented by TAA on Nov. 1. Another previous stakes winner is He’s Not Joking, who won the Grade 3 bet365 Grey Stakes at Woodbine in Canada four weeks ago. A number of the other horses have stakes experience, that group led by Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes runner-up First Resort, who finished fourth in the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes in his most recent race. Similarly, Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes runner-up Tiztastic aims to improve a bit, as does Dapper Moon, who led with an eight of a mile left in the Street Sense before fading to fourth. Filoso closed well from 10th of 11 to get third in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity last month and is another perhaps needing slight improvement to win at this level. Clock Tower has led from the start in all four career starts, most recently hanging on for third in the Grade 2 Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes. Render Judgment and Sonic Skidaddle both step up in class to the stakes level for the first time off recent maiden wins. Redacted finished second in a maiden race in his debut a little more than two weeks ago and is attempting to earn his first career win in this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
Top contenders:
Three horses in the field have won stakes races, those being He’s Not Joking, Jonathan’s Way and Tiztastic. Of the trio, He’s Not Joking is the only one of the three entering the race following a win in his most recent race. That win came in the Grey Stakes at Woodbine in Canada in which He’s Not Joking earned a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, which was not only the best of his career but also came in his first race around two turns. Although the Grey Stakes was run on all-weather Tapeta Footings surface at Woodbine, I have no doubt the colt can run as well on dirt, as he’s a son of Practical Joke, who has produced two colts that ran well in graded stakes on dirt on the Road to the Kentucky Derby: 2023 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move and 2024 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner Domestic Product. In the Grey Stakes, He’s Not Joking responded readily when asked by his jockey after a half-mile had been run, moving up quickly from sixth to third before taking the lead and drawing off to win by four lengths. Getting the ground-saving rail post position, He’s Not Joking has the benefit off a strong early pace to close into because Clock Tower has led through the opening six furlongs in all three of his route races and also because First Resort also has a “need the lead” style. Additionally, Redacted stretches out from seven furlongs from the outside post in the field of 10 and so will be forced to use some early speed to get good position before the first turn. Last, but not least, trainer Josie Carroll doesn’t ship out of Woodbine very often to run her horses on dirt, but a Race Lens query reveals her starters have won four of 16 races on dirt over the last few years. As such, He’s Not Joking may be tough to beat with improvement that should occur in his second consecutive race around two turns.
Jonathan’s Way was very impressive winning the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs in September, and he did so with a field-high 100 speed figure. That race was run at a mile around one turn, so he was trying two turns for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at the start of this month. In that race, Jonathan’s Way started fifth and never made any headway, ending up seventh while earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure. Since then, he has put in a spectacular five-furlong workout at Churchill, in :58.80, the best of 76 timed workouts on the day at the distance. This certainly tells us he’s fit, but there’s still no way to say for sure he will run as well at this two-turn trip as he did around one turn. If Jonathan’s Way repeats his last effort and He’s Not Joking repeats his most recent effort, then He’s Not Joking very likely wins. On the other hand, if his Iroquois effort is repeated, Jonathan’s Way might win, but only if He’s Not Joking doesn’t improve off the experience of his first race at the distance.
Then there are a pair of interesting runners, both with less probability to win than either He’s Not Joking or Jonathan’s Way.
The first of the pair is Sonic Skidaddle, who didn’t run much in his debut at Churchill Downs in a sprint two months ago when finishing seventh. He then was an entirely different horse in his second career start on Nov. 1. In that race at seven furlongs, Sonic Skidaddle rallied from 10th after a half-mile and was six paths wide on the far turn but still swooped by the field to win by almost 4 ¾ lengths, earning an 85 speed figure. Stretching out to two turns should not pose a problem as a Race Lens query reveals both foals out of his dam are dirt-route winners. Trainer Brendan Walsh is excellent at knowing when his last-out maiden winners are ready for the big leagues, having won the Breeders’ Futurity in October with East Avenue at this distance following a win in a dirt sprint. Notably, jockey Luan Machado rode East Avenue for the maiden win before Tyler Gaffalione got on for the stakes win. The pattern is similar for Sonic Skidaddle, who had Machado aboard for the maiden win and now gets Gaffalione.
The other interesting horse is Tiztastic, who won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes on grass in September with a 90 speed figure before earning an 88 figure when second to five-length winner Sovereignty in the Street Sense Stakes at this distance on Oct. 27. He’s certainly got talent and, with just slight improvement off his last two efforts, could have a say in the outcome.
The rest of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes field (with best Equibase Speed Figure in similar race): Clock Tower (93), Dapper Moon (87), Filoso (88), First Resort (98)¸ Redacted (78) and Render Judgment (86).
Win Contenders:
He’s Not Joking
Jonathan’s Way
Superfecta
8-2-3-4
8-2-3-4
$50
Super High Five
8-2-3-4-9
8-2-3-4-9
$3,494
Superfecta
8-2-3-4
8-2-3-4
$50
Super High Five
8-2-3-4-9
8-2-3-4-9
$3,494
