The Grade 1, $500,000 Champagne Stakes features a field of 10 2-year-olds vying for an automatic spot in the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA in four weeks.
All 10 are trying the distance of one mile for the first time, with Chancer McPatrick and Colonel Bob having won at seven furlongs to date and the rest at shorter distances. However, it must be noted the one-mile distance at Aqueduct is run around one turn, so the trip is more like a sprint than a traditional route. Chancer McPatrick also has won at the highest level of any entrant in the Champagne field, emerging victorious last month in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes. There are two other stakes winners in the field and one of them, J J Zo Zo, was an impressive 8 ½-length winner in the Smoke Glacken Stakes four weeks ago. The other stakes winner is Mo Plex, who won the Funny Cide Stakes near the end of August to bring his record to a perfect 3-for-3. Colonel Bob, Executive Order, Lethal Speed, Tip Top Thomas, Uncaged, and Vekoma Rides all won their most recent races and are moving up from the maiden ranks to stakes ranks. Chancer McPatrick, Mo Plex, and J J Zo Zo all won stakes following maiden wins so this is not an improbable task. Smoken Wicked has finished second, third and fourth, respectively, in stakes races following his debut win.
Analysis & Contenders:
Noting that it is not out of the ordinary for 2-year-olds to go from maiden winner immediately to stakes winner, I think Vekoma Rides can post the upset in this field. Evidence this is a strong possibility comes by examining the record of Chancer McPatrick, who won his debut on July 27, earning an 82 Equibase Speed Figure at the time, before improving to a 92 speed figure five weeks later on Sept. 2 when victorious in the Hopeful Stakes. Vekoma Rides earned the same 82 Equibase Speed Figure for winning his debut on Sept. 14, and the manner in which he ran the race, as well as how easily he won, bodes well for another top effort. Showing a lot of maturity in his first career start, Vekoma Rides was third after a quarter-mile, about one length off the top two, then was within a head of the lead although still third after a half-mile. Showing tremendous acceleration, Vekoma Rides was 3 ½ lengths in front after another eighth of a mile, before coasting home by five lengths in “eased up” fashion. Considering how easily he won, he could have run much faster and considering first-crop sire Vekoma is the father of division leader Jonathan’s Way, who captured the Iroquois Stakes last month, there’s little doubt Vekoma Rides has the pedigree to win this race.
Chancer McPatrick is certainly the horse to beat on paper, having rallied from 10th to win in his debut then from eighth of nine to win the Hopeful Stakes last month, while earning a field-high 92 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Trainer Chad Brown has won the Champagne four times in the past eight years and certainly knows how to bring a horse into the race for a top effort, and jockey Flavien Prat rides as he did for both of the colt’s wins. There are a number of horses in this field who have led or been very close up early in their races, so if an early pace battle ensues Chancer McPatrick could pass the entire field as easily as he did in both of his races, making up more than nine lengths in each.
J J Zo Zo may come in a bit under the radar of some bettors as he has been running in New Jersey and not New York like most of the others. After a third- and fifth-place finish to start his career, J J Zo Zo led from the start then showed a lot of mental fitness when passed in the stretch before reengaging to win by a head. That effort earned a strong 91 figure just one point shy of the 92 figure Chancer McPatrick earned winning the Hopeful Stakes. Proving that effort was no fluke, J J Zo Zo won the Smoke Glacken Stakes on Sept. 7 by 8 ½ lengths, suggesting the 88 figure earned could have been higher had he been asked to run harder in the last 100 yards. Drawing the inside post for the Champagne, it is conceivable J J Zo Zo might get the lead from the start. If other horses and their jockeys decide not to engage this colt, he could get very brave and win.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Colonel Bob (67), Executive Order (87), Mo Plex (83), Lethal Speed (70), Smoken Wicked (86), Tip Top Thomas (80) and Uncaged (81).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Vekoma Rides
Chancer McPatrick
J J Zo Zo
Daily Double
5-10
5-10
$11
Consolation Pick 3
5-2-10
5-2-10
$11
Superfecta
10-2-4-7
10-2-4-7
$10
Trifecta
10-2-4
10-2-4
$13
Daily Double
5-10
5-10
$11
Consolation Pick 3
5-2-10
5-2-10
$11
Superfecta
10-2-4-7
10-2-4-7
$10
Trifecta
10-2-4
10-2-4
$13
