Some races are difficult to handicap because identifying the most likely winner is challenging. Other races are difficult for a different reason: the most likely winner is obvious, but as a result they’re a heavy favorite in the betting and making a meaningful profit isn’t easy.
Saturday’s $1 million, Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing falls into the second category. Eight horses were entered in the 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-old fillies. #6 Thorpedo Anna is a standout. The daughter of Fast Anna has compiled a stellar record this year, trouncing fillies by blowout margins in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes, Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks, Grade 1 DK Horse Acorn Stakes, and Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks before finishing second by a head against males in the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes.
Thorpedo Anna ran an awesome race in the Travers. She had to wait in traffic around the far turn. By the time she got out into the clear, reigning champion 2-year-old male Fierceness had opened up a clear lead. She gamely chased him down the homestretch and might have passed him had the race been a few strides longer. Back against fellow 3-year-old fillies in the Cotillion, Thorpedo Anna looks mighty tough to defeat.
Of course, Thorpedo Anna’s obvious merits mean she’ll start at short odds. Betting her to win is unlikely to yield much of a return; a $20 win bet might yield $28 or so. A 40% profit is nothing to sneeze at, but there are a lot of uncertainties in horse racing, and bettors usually want a higher return on investment to compensate for the risk involved.
What does this mean? It means we need to solve an exotic wager like the trifecta (select the top three finishers in order), which yields a bigger payoff than a win bet. But this requires identifying which fillies will finish second and third behind Thorpedo Anna, a task easier said than done.
A couple of fillies are obvious contenders. Stretch-running #1 Power Squeeze never threatened Thorpedo Anna in the Kentucky Oaks or the Acorn, finishing sixth and third, respectively. But she’s since won the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks and Grade 1 Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales by narrow margins. In the Alabama, Power Squeeze rallied resiliently to defeat Grade 1 winner Candied by a head. Look for Power Squeeze to be gaining ground strongly in the Parx stretch.
#3 Tarifa shouldn’t be underestimated either. True, she never threatened when finishing ninth in the Kentucky Oaks, and her runner-up finish when returning from a layoff in the Audubon Oaks last month was only so-so. But during the winter and spring Tarifa rattled off back-to-back victories in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-Tipton and Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks Presented by Fasig-Tipton, so we know she’s capable of competing at a high level on her best day. Sharp workouts since the Audubon Oaks suggest she’ll move forward in her second start back.
There also are less heralded fillies with a chance to factor in the Cotillion. Two in particular are appealing: #8 Mystic Lake and #5 Sidamara.
Mystic Lake has shown excellent form sprinting. Since May, she’s sandwiched romping victories in the Grade 3 Miss Preakness Stakes and Grade 2 Charles Town Oaks around a runner-up finish (beaten by only three-quarters of a length) in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes. Some bettors might hesitate to support Mystic Lake because she’s lost both of her starts running one mile or farther, but those efforts came on synthetic and turf surfaces, and Mystic Lake seems clearly best on dirt. The Cotillion marks her first attempt to run long on dirt, and it’s possible she’ll relish the configuration and run a big race on the front end.
As for Sidamara, the daughter of champion Arrogate has won two of her last three starts for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. After rallying to win a maiden special weight race and an allowance-optional claiming race, both racing 1 1/16 miles, she stepped up in class for the Delaware Oaks and finished second by a nose against Power Squeeze. Sidamara is improving steadily and has been freshened since July, opening the door for a strong showing in her rematch with Power Squeeze.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$2 trifecta: 6 with 1 with 3,5,8 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 12, $2 trifecta 6 with 1 with 3,5,8
$2 trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 1 ($4)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 12, $2 trifecta 6 with 5,8 with 1
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$6 trifecta: 6 with 1 with 3,5,8 ($18)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 12, $6 trifecta 6 with 1 with 3,5,8
$6 trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 1 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 12, $6 trifecta 6 with 5,8 with 1
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 3
1-1/2-6
1-1/2-6
$14
Superfecta
6-7-3-8
6-7-3-8
$35
Pick 3
1-1/2-6
1-1/2-6
$14
Superfecta
6-7-3-8
6-7-3-8
$35
