Inaugurated in 2021, the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes for 2-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds is one of the youngest Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve prep races. Yet it’s already proved worthy as an important Kentucky Derby qualifier.

The first edition of the Gun Runner produced Rich Strike and Epicenter, the 1-2 finishers in the 2022 Kentucky Derby. The second edition yielded two starters in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, and the third turned out a 2024 Kentucky Derby starter.

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The fourth renewal of the Gun Runner takes place Saturday, Dec. 21, and drew a small but promising five-horse field. I rank #5 Admiral Dennis as the most likely winner.

Conditioned by Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox, Admiral Dennis debuted on Sept. 19 in a maiden special weight sprint at Churchill Downs. Nothing went his way that day; every effort he made to find racing room down the homestretch was thwarted. Despite never getting a clear run, he fought on to finish third while beaten by two lengths.

That performance stamped Admiral Dennis as the odds-on favorite to win his second start in a one-mile maiden special weight race Nov. 7 at Churchill. This time he received a clear trip in a nine-horse field, tracking an honest pace from third before taking over to win by 3 1/2 lengths in the sharp time of 1:35.87. The form of that race was flattered when the third-place finisher, Monet’s Magic, returned to win his next start at the same track and class level.

Admiral Dennis has since shipped to Fair Grounds, where he worked five-eighths of a mile in 1:00.60 on Dec. 7. That was the fastest time of 50 that morning at the distance. From all appearances, Admiral Dennis is poised to produce another strong run for the hot jockey-trainer duo of Luis Saez and Cox, who have teamed up to win at a lofty 30% rate over the last two months per Brisnet statistics.

If you’re planning to bet the Gun Runner Stakes, we recommend throwing all of your support behind Admiral Dennis, counting on him to visit the winner’s circle. One strategy to consider is betting Admiral Dennis on top of a superfecta, which requires selecting the top four finishers in order.

Magnitude winning in November at Churchill. (Coady Media)

Which horses should we use for second, third, and fourth place? One obvious contender is #3 Magnitude from the barn of Steve Asmussen, who has won two of the first three editions of the Gun Runner Stakes. Magnitude faltered in his first try in a Kentucky Derby points race, finishing seventh in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill. But he bounced back in a 1 1/16-mile, $100,000 allowance-optional claiming race at Churchill last month, pressing the pace before taking over to win by one length. The runner-up pulled 15 lengths clear of the rest of the field, so it’s safe to say Magnitude ran well.

#2 Render Judgment is bound to draw betting support, too. After rallying to finish second in his debut dashing seven-eighths of a mile at Keeneland, he stretched out for a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Churchill and charged from just off the pace to win by half a length. He then picked up a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying point when rallying mildly to finish fifth in Churchill’s 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

Don’t underestimate #1 Built, who defeated Render Judgment by 1 1/2 lengths in the above-mentioned seven-furlong sprint at Keeneland. That win followed Built’s debut over three-quarters of a mile at Ellis Park, in which he rallied to finish fourth (upgraded to third via disqualification) against subsequent Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity winner East Avenue.

Built is stretching out meaningfully in distance for the Gun Runner, but his pedigree suggests he’ll relish the longer journey. Sharp workouts since his victory over Render Judgment suggest this promising bay colt is a major contender in the Gun Runner. He showed excellent early speed when breaking his maiden, and there’s a good chance he’ll set the Gun Runner pace while breaking from the inside post. From there, he may prove tricky to pass.

Depending on your budget, here are two superfecta tickets to consider playing in the Gun Runner:

Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget

$2 superfecta: 5 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 (total cost $12)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 7th race, $2 superfecta 5 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$5 superfecta: 5 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 (total cost $30)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 7th race, $5 superfecta 5 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 with 1,2,3

Good luck, and enjoy the race!