This Saturday, Aqueduct hosts the final marquee card in New York for 2024, with four graded stakes on tap headlined by the Cigar Mile Handicap Presented by Twinspires.com. Two other stakes races on the card – the Remsen Stakes and the Demoiselle Stakes – are key early preps for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve and the Longines Kentucky Oaks, respectively.

The Remsen and Demoiselle are both held at 1 1/8 miles around two turns, making them the only prep races for juveniles held at that distance. In the Demoiselle’s case, this distance is the same as the Kentucky Oaks May 2 at Churchill Downs. Since Churchill Downs created the Road to the Kentucky Oaks points series in 2012, one filly has won both races – Malathaat in 2020-’21, and two Demoiselle winners finished second in the Oaks (Wonder Gadot in 2017-’18 and Nest in 2021-’22).

This year’s Demoiselle drew 10 2-year-old fillies and has a clear morning-line favorite in #1 Muhimma, who ships to New York from trainer Brad Cox’s base at Churchill Downs. The Munnings filly has been dominant in both of her starts leading up to this stakes debut, romping by 7 ½ lengths in a 6 ½-furlong maiden Sept. 10 at Churchill and then basically repeating that effort when taking a seven-furlong allowance-optional claiming race under the Twin Spires by 5 ½ lengths Nov. 1.

In both races, Muhimma pressed the early pace before taking over at will heading out of the turn, and her pedigree suggests that she’ll be able to extend that tactical speed around two turns Saturday. Her dam (mother) set a course record for 1 5/16 miles (a distance longer than the Kentucky Derby) back in 2019, albeit on turf at Kentucky Downs. And her second dam is top-class turf mare Pure Clan, who won two Grade 1 route stakes back in the 2000s and earned more than $1.9 million.

Muhimma looks very formidable in the Demoiselle, but she’ll probably be bet even farther down from her 4-5 morning-line odds at post time.

Which filly or fillies have the potential to upset the favorite? Two are worth considering: #6 Bless the Broken and #8 Beauty Reigns. Bless the Broken won her debut at lower-tier track Evangeline Downs back in July in a sprint and was then transferred to up-and-coming trainer Will Walden in Kentucky. She was backed at odds of 3.53-1 in her bluegrass debut at Keeneland, but did not fire in a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race and finished a distant eighth of nine runners. But in her second start, another 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill Downs on Nov. 15, the Laoban filly closed well into a slow pace to finish a head behind Amarth. That effort was encouraging enough for Bless the Broken’s connections to ship her to New York for the Demoiselle, and she has a solid pedigree for route racing as her dam is a half-sister to 2013 Kentucky Oaks winner and millionaire Princess of Sylmar. Bless the Broken, a 12-1 longshot on the morning line, will also race with blinkers removed in the Demoiselle.

Beauty Reigns won her debut in eye-catching fashion going 6 ½ furlongs Nov. 8 at Aqueduct for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who managed 2023 champion 2-year-old filly Just F  Y I. The daughter of Into Mischief broke well and then raced just behind the early pacesetter before making a move for the lead on the turn. She was joined by My Sherrona on her outside in early stretch and briefly lost the lead, but responded to gamely turn back that rival and prevail by a half-length.

Beauty Reigns wins on Nov. 8. (Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

Beauty Reigns’ final time was more than two seconds slower than Muhimma’s maiden win at the same distance, but betting on 2-year-olds is all about spotting potential and I think this filly can improve substantially in her second start under the guidance of one of the best trainers in the sport’s history. Beauty Reigns, 9-2 on the morning line, is also bred to race longer – her unraced dam is by Tapit and her second dam (maternal grandmother), by “Iron Horse” Giant’s Causeway, is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup route winners Sweet Catomine and Life Is Sweet.

If you’re considering making a trifecta bet, there are a couple of fillies that I think have a chance to finish third in #2 Liam in the Dust (10-1) and #10 Ballerina d’Oro (8-1). The former nearly won the one-mile Pocahontas Stakes back in September at Churchill Downs and finished second to Muhimma in her Nov. 1 allowance win, while the latter has had poor starts in all three of her races run on turf but made up ground late in each of them, winning a one-mile event at Kentucky Downs in September and finishing three lengths behind talented May Day Ready in the Jessamine Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales in October. She’ll make her dirt debut in the Demoiselle for four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown.

However, I’m going to focus on exacta bets in this race, limited to a $30 budget. I’ll box Muhimma, Bless the Broken, and Beauty Reigns in a $4 exacta, totaling $24, and then box the two higher-priced fillies in a $3 exacta box, totaling $6. If Muhimma wins and either Bless the Broken or Beauty Reigns finishes second, I’ll hopefully make back most of my expenditure. But if either Bless the Broken or Beauty Reigns wins and Muhimma finishes second, I should make a profit on the race – and if my upset candidates finish 1-2 either way, I’ll have a nice $7 exacta to cash and winnings to allocate toward profligate holiday spending.

Betting strategy on a $30 budget:

$4 exacta box: Muhimma, Bless the Broken, and Beauty Reigns ($24)

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 8, $4 exacta box, 1,6,and 8

$3 exacta box: Bless the Broken and Beauty Reigns ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 8, $3 exacta box, 6 and 8