A small but strong field has turned out for Saturday’s $750,000, Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga. The 1 ½-mile turf race awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf on Nov. 2 at Del Mar, and this prize – coupled with the rich purse – has attracted a pair of accomplished runners from the globally powerful Godolphin stable.

The two horses carrying Godolphin’s royal blue silks are #2 Measured Time (7-5) and #4 Silver Knott (1-1). They bring differing strengths to the table, but there’s a strong chance they’ll finish first and second in the Sword Dancer. The question is, which one will win?

Silver Knott is the slim morning-line favorite, at least in part because he’s proven over the Sword Dancer distance. Runner-up by a nose in the 2022 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Silver Knott went 0-for-6 while competing over middle distances from one mile to 1 ¼ miles in 2023. But since stretching out over longer trips in 2024, Silver Knott has been unstoppable.

Indeed, the 4-year-old gelding opened 2024 with a pace-pressing victory in the 1 ½-mile, Grade 2 VisitLEX Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland, after which he rated behind a runaway leader on his way to a 4 ½-length drubbing of the 1 3/8-mile, Grade 2 Man o’ War Stakes at Belmont at the Big A. Finishing third that day was Nations Pride, who recently won the Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes.

Silver Knott’s latest victory came in the 1 3/8-mile, Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes at Saratoga. In a small, paceless field, Silver Knott set an honest tempo up front before edging away to win by 2 ½ lengths, earning a career-best 107 Brisnet Speed rating. Regular rider Flavien Prat is retaining the mount in the Sword Dancer, and another strong showing should be in the offing.

Measured Time is the second choice on the morning line, but there’s a chance he’ll be favored by post time. True, he lost his lone start over 1 ½ miles, finishing second in the Racing TV Floodlit Stakes at Kempton Park in England last fall. But that race took place over a synthetic track, and Measured Time has done his best work on turf.

Silver Knott (Eclipse Sportswire)

During the winter and spring in Dubai, Measured Time displayed excellent form racing 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles). He won the Group 2 Al Rashidya Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths, then took the Group 1 Jebel Hatta Stakes over stablemate Ottoman Fleet, who has since won the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes and Grade 3 Arlington Stakes in addition to finishing third in the Grade 1 FanDuel Fourstardave Handicap.

Measured Time ended his Dubai campaign with a fourth-place finish against tough international competition in the Group 1 Dubai Turf, where he was beaten only 1 ¼ lengths. Then, following a two-month break, he journeyed to the U.S. for the 1 3/16-mile, Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga, in which he vied for early command before edging clear to beat the above-mentioned Nations Pride by two lengths.

Winning the Manhattan earned Measured Time a 104 Brisnet Speed rating. Technically, that’s a little slower than Silver Knott ran in the Bowling Green. But as a son of British superstar Frankel out of the Street Cry mare Minidress, Measured Time has the pedigree to shine while stretching out over 1 ½ miles on turf, so there’s a good chance he’ll improve over the Sword Dancer distance. Don’t forget, Minidress has previously foaled Rebel’s Romance, winner of the 2022 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf and a nine-time winner over 1 ½ miles.

So how should we bet the Sword Dancer? By the narrowest margin, we prefer the chances of Measured Time over Silver Knott. Bettors playing on a small budget (say, $10) should consider an exacta using Measured Time in first place and Silver Knott in second place.

But if you have more capital to invest (say, $30), we recommend a different strategy. Rather than try to split Measured Time and Silver Knott, we suggest playing them together in the first two slots of a trifecta ticket while adding #1 Soldier Rising (8-1) for third place.

Soldier Rising couldn’t keep up with Silver Knott in the Bowling Green, finishing second by 2 ½ lengths. But the 6-year-old son of Frankel has repeatedly run well against Grade 1 competition over the last few years. He’s finished second or third in no fewer than six Grade 1 races, including the last two editions of the Sword Dancer.

As a late runner, Soldier Rising won’t be helped by the small field and likely slow pace of this year’s Sword Dancer, which should favor Silver Knott and Measured Time. But he appears likely to close for third place and produce a respectable trifecta payoff.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 exacta: 2 with 4

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 9th race, $10 exacta 2 with 4

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$15 trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1 ($30)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 9th race, $15 trifecta 2,4 with 2,4 with 1

Good luck, and enjoy the race!