The $500,000, Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun at Saratoga Race Course isn’t a Grade 1 race, but the recent roster of winners reads like “who’s who” of top-class racehorses. The last three editions have been won by past or future champions Forte (2023), Epicenter (2022), and Essential Quality (2021), while the 2020 edition went to future Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide.

The 2024 Jim Dandy this Saturday appears primed to produce a winner of similar acclaim. Although only six horses were entered in the 1 1/8-mile race, three of them are Grade 1 winners, including one who is a champion and one who is a Triple Crown race winner. The small field notwithstanding, the Jim Dandy is shaping up as the most exciting race of the weekend.

Fierceness, outside, training at Saratoga. (Coglianese Photos/Susie Raisher)

Any analysis must begin with #6 Fierceness, the brilliant but inconsistent champion 2-year-old male of 2023. On his best day, Fierceness is fantastic — remember his championship-defining victory in the 2023 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, in which he crushed Grade 1 winners Muth, Locked, and Timberlake by 6 1/4 lengths? And don’t forget about his demolition of the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, in which he defeated eight opponents by a record-breaking 13 1/2 lengths.

But Fierceness doesn’t always produce his top-tier effort. In the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last fall, he started as a heavy favorite but faded badly to finish seventh. In between the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby, he was beaten to third place in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. And though Fierceness started as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, he faded after vying for the early lead to finish a distant 15th.

It seems like when Fierceness is able to work out a comfortable trip, either on the lead or racing close to a reasonable pace, he’s able to produce a gigantic performance. In all three of his defeats, he got off to troubled starts and never appeared to recover. He overcame hopping at the start reasonably well in the Kentucky Derby but wound up engaging in a quick pace instead of settling down, and that may have been his undoing.

This presents a problem for Fierceness because the Jim Dandy field is absolutely loaded with speed. #2 Seize the Grey led all the way to win the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths before fading from a pacesetting position to finish seventh in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. #3 Batten Down has scored both of his victories in front-running fashion, including when setting a quick pace in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. #4 Pony Express led all the way to win a fast 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park by nine lengths, and Ohio Derby runner-up #5 Gould’s Gold has done his best work when racing close to the pace.

In other words, the Jim Dandy seems very likely to unfold at a fast pace, making it difficult for Fierceness to secure an easy lead through modest fractions like he did in the Florida Derby. Even a pressing trip like he employed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile may place Fierceness too close to a hot pace. And if Fierceness fails to break alertly, that could further exacerbate the challenge of securing a favorable trip.

Sierra Leone training at Saratoga. (NYRA/Coglianese Photos)

For all these reasons, #1 Sierra Leone looms as the most likely winner of the Jim Dandy. He’s not quite as accomplished as Fierceness, and he’s a bit slower in terms of Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings. But as the only late runner in a field packed with speed, Sierra Leone figures to receive a perfect setup.

Sierra Leone has put together an excellent 3-year-old campaign. He started the year by launching big rallies to win the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Then in the Kentucky Derby, he rallied boldly despite drifting in through the stretch to finish second by a nose against ground-saving winner Mystik Dan. Sierra Leone also ran well in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, closing to finish third by 1 1/2 lengths behind winner Dornoch and Mindframe, who came back to finish first and second in the Belmont Stakes.

It’s possible racing 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont stretched the limits of Sierra Leone’s stamina just a bit. Cutting back slightly to 1 1/8 miles for the Jim Dandy may sharpen his finishing kick. Regardless, if a fast pace unfolds as expected this Saturday, Sierra Leone should have every chance to reel in the leaders late and score his third graded stakes victory.

We recommend taking a straightforward approach to betting the Jim Dandy. Since Fierceness figures to attract plenty of betting support, the odds on Sierra Leone should be respectable even in this small field. A win bet ought to generate an acceptable return on investment.

Bettors investing a bit more capital should also consider betting a small exacta using Fierceness for second place.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #1 Sierra Leone

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 10, $10 to win on #1 Sierra Leone

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$25 to win on #1 Sierra Leone

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 10, $10 to win on #1 Sierra Leone

$5 exacta: 1 with 6

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 10, $10 exacta 1 with 6

Good luck, and enjoy the race!