There’s a chance a short-priced horse will win Friday’s $600,000, Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes on opening day of the Keeneland fall meet. But a longshot winner might be almost as likely an outcome.
Eight 2-year-old fillies were entered the Alcibiades, a 1 1/16-mile dirt race that serves as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Nov. 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and also as a stop on the 2024-’25 Road to the Longines Kentucky Oaks.
There are some prominent names in the entries, including the top three finishers from the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes Aug. 31 at Saratoga Race Course.
But according to Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings, none of the Alcibiades entrants is particularly fast. And when you see a Grade 1 race in which the favorites aren’t especially fast, then longshots typically won’t need much improvement — if any — to vie for victory.
That’s why we’re thinking outside the box with #1 Continuity (20-1) as our top choice to win the Alcibiades. True, she’s the longest shot in the field. But her past performances suggest she has the potential to surprise while stepping up in class.
Continuity debuted July 13 in a $50,000 maiden optional-claiming race sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Ellis Park. After dueling for the lead, she fought gamely down the homestretch to prevail by half a length in the slow time of 1:13.42.
Of course, a win is a win, and the good news is Continuity improved significantly in her second start on Aug. 16. In a $50,000 allowance optional-claiming race at the same three-quarters of a mile distance, this time at Colonial Downs, she settled a couple lengths off the early pace, then finished fast to seize command and dominate by seven lengths in 1:09.74. That effort earned a 93 Brisnet Speed rating (the highest number in the Alcibiades field) and a 79 Beyer Speed Figure, not far off the highest number in the Alcibiades.
Stretching out over 1 1/16 miles is a question mark, but Continuity’s pedigree suggests she’ll handle the challenge. Her sire, Speightster, won the one-mile, Grade 3 Dwyer Stakes. Her dam, Shady Reflection, previously produced Cary Street, winner of the 1 3/4-mile, Grade 2 Las Vegas Marathon Stakes and 1 1/2-mile, Grade 3 Greenwood Cup Stakes.
The tactical speed Continuity has shown in sprints should serve her well while stretching out in distance for the Alcibiades, allowing her to set or press the pace from her inside post position. From there, Continuity can kick on down the homestretch and hold off any late runners to spring a double-digit upset.
Since Continuity is a longshot, a simple win bet will yield an excellent return on investment if she visits the winner’s circle. But we also suggest playing her for first and second place in an exacta, giving us a chance to cash if Continuity runs well but settles for second place.
The other filly we’ll play in the exacta is #8 Immersive (2-1), the undefeated favorite on the morning line. A homebred racing for the powerful Godolphin stable, Immersive is conditioned by two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, who has won two of the last five editions of the Alcibiades.
Immersive started her career in a maiden special weight sprinting three-quarters of a mile on July 21 at Saratoga. She settled two lengths off the early pace, then charged home to win by the same margin in 1:12.60.
It wasn’t a particularly fast or flashy performance, so Immersive was a 12.70-1 longshot when she stepped up in class for the Aug. 31 Spinaway racing seven-eighths of a mile at Saratoga. Despite her long odds, Immersive closed from fifth place on a muddy track to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths in 1:25.31, earning a 90 Brisnet Speed rating and an 84 Beyer Speed Figure.
Immersive was aided in the Spinaway by a decelerating pace — the early leaders were slowing down significantly in the stretch — but she defeated all comers in comfortable fashion and has upside for further improvement in the Alcibiades. As a daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a mare by Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner Bernardini, Immersive is bred to relish racing 1 1/16 miles.
Depending on how much you want to spend betting the Alcibiades, here are two strategies to consider:
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$6 to win on #1 Continuity
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $6 to win on 1
$3 exacta: 8 with 1
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $3 exacta 8 with 1
$1 exacta: 1 with 8
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $3 exacta 1 with 8
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #1 Continuity
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $15 to win on 1
$10 exacta: 8 with 1
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $10 exacta 8 with 1
$5 exacta: 1 with 8
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, 9th race, $5 exacta 1 with 8
Good luck and enjoy the race!
Consolation Pick 3
1-2-8
1-2-8
$3
Superfecta
8-6-7-1
8-6-7-1
$24
Consolation Pick 3
1-2-8
1-2-8
$3
Superfecta
8-6-7-1
8-6-7-1
$24
