The $1 million, Grade 1 Whitney Stakes Saturday at Saratoga lives up to its historical billing in having a strong field of 12 entered, with the winner earning an automatic starting spot in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic this fall in addition to $550,000 in earnings.
Leading the field in terms of earnings to date is National Treasure (over $5.2 million), who has won four of 13 races and enters off a win over Saratoga’s track in the Grade 1 Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap just under two months ago. Two of the other 10 horses have earned less money in their careers but have double the number of career wins as National Treasure and must be considered strongly. The first of those is Skippylongstocking, who won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap in April. The other is Post Time, who was second behind National Treasure in the Metropolitan but who won the Grade 2 Carter Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets just prior to that.
There is more talent in this full field, as First Mission won the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes Presented by TwinSpires in May and Bright Future won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes last summer at Saratoga. An up-and-coming star may be Arthur’s Ride, the most lightly raced horse in the Whitney field who has three wins and two runner-up finishes in six races and will be making his first start in a stakes race Saturday. Disarm has earned just over $1 million to date, with his biggest effort coming last July at Saratoga when second in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. Il Miracolo is approaching the three-quarters of a million mark in career earnings, with his best effort this year a victory in the Grade 3 Ghostzapper Stakes in March, a race fellow Whitney starter Tumbarumba finished second in. Back in January, Tumbarumba won the Grade 3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes Presented by Whispering Angel. Warrior Johny hasn’t had success in three stakes races in his career but enters the Whitney off a strong win over Saratoga’s track last month. Crupi won the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in June at Saratoga before a runner-up effort behind the incomparable Next in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes four weeks ago. Charge It won the 2022 Suburban but has not finished better than third in five races since then.
Analysis and Contenders:
Simply put, if the race and effort Arthur’s Ride put forth in his most recent start on June 7 is believable, he can post the upset in this year’s Whitney Stakes. I think that can happen, considering that in four of his other five races to date, Arthur’s Ride won or finished second, and he’s 3-for-3 on fast tracks at a mile or more on dirt in his career. As with many of the 4-year-olds in this year’s Whitney field, Arthur’s Ride may not yet have run his fastest race, and that is saying something considering his last effort earned a 115 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the highest last-race figure among any horse in the Whitney. Put in perspective, Arthur’s Ride June 7 effort was faster than National Treasure’s win in the Metropolitan Handicap one day later at Saratoga, which earned a 110 figure.
Arthur’s Ride had been away from the races from February 2023 until March of this year, yet when he returned he won as if he had never been away, earning a 96 figure. After a disappointing ninth-of-12 finish two months later, Arthur’s Ride ran fast from start to finish in his win at Saratoga in June, being eased up in the last 110 yards after achieving an insurmountable margin and coasting to a 12 ¾-length length win. That was at the distance of 1 ¼ miles, so his ability to run the same, or better, at the Whitney’s 1 1/8-mile distance is of no concern. To show he’s still in top shape, Arthur’s Ride put in a half-mile drill a few days ago which was the fourth best of 57 at the distance on the day.
Another interesting note about Arthur’s Ride is that last year when Bright Future won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, that colt was a 4-year-old making his seventh career start, which is the same age and total starts as Arthur’s Ride is and has in this year’s Whitney. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott amazingly has never won this race, although his starters have won eight of 35 Grade 1 dirt route stakes in the past three years. Arthur’s Ride gives Mott the chance to add the Whitney Stakes to his awesome résumé.
Bright Future, one of three entrants from the potent barn of Todd Pletcher (the other two being Crupi and Charge It), has won five of nine career starts. He really peaked at this time last year in his sixth and seventh career starts, winning a 1 1/8-mile Saratoga allowance race in July and then taking the Jockey Club Gold Cup with a career-best 112 Equibase Speed Figure. Two months later in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Bright Future found himself too far back in the early stages when 10th of 12 but managed to pass half the field and was beaten just under four lengths at the end, earning a 111 figure. After that, he was rested until June when he was entered in the Salvator Mile Stakes, likely with the Whitney as the target for his second start of the year. In the Salvator Mile, he rallied from sixth to win going away and earned a 104 figure that he’s highly likely to improve upon in his second start off a long layoff and also back over the track where he has won both of his starts.
National Treasure is another horse whose trainer, Bob Baffert, decided to run over Saratoga’s track to set him up for his best in the Whitney. When he returned from 3 ½ months off in the Metropolitan Handicap in June, National Treasure had to battle for early supremacy in the opening quarter-mile but then got into a steady stride and drew off to win by more than six lengths, earning a 110 figure that he is likely to improve upon in his second start off the longer layoff. Last summer, National Treasure ran poorly when fifth in the Travers Stakes, but in his 2024 debut he won the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Whitney, earning a 114 figure that’s good enough to possibly win this race if repeated. Although National Treasure earned his first two wins, including in the 2023 Preakness Stakes, leading from start to finish, he demonstrated the ability to relax off the pace when second in the early stages of the Pegasus, and those may be the tactics employed in this year’s Whitney if Junior Alvarado and Arthur’s Ride go for the lead from the start, a strategy that proved so successful in his most recent win.
There are a number of other really good horses in the field. One of those is First Mission, who disappointed badly as the odds-on favorite on June 29 in the 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster Stakes but won the Alysheba Stakes and Essex Handicap back-to-back prior to that. He earned 115 figures in each of those races, which would make him competitive in the Whitney if repeated. Skippylongstocking earned a 114 figure winning the Oaklawn Handicap at the distance of the Whitney in April but also underachieved in the Foster when finishing third with no excuse, although it must be noted he only missed second by a head after fading from second to fourth on the far turn. Post Time has only finished further back than second one time in 11 races and shows up every time he runs, with his best efforts earning 116 figures in January and February of this year. Then there’s Warrior Johny, likely to go to post at high odds. Although he’s winless in three stakes tries, he sports a two-for-three record at Saratoga, with both wins coming at the Whitney’s 1 1/8-mile trip, the most recent just three weeks ago with a 113 figure.
The rest of the Whitney Field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Charge It (114), Crupi (109), Disarm (107), Il Miracolo (108) and Tumbarumba (108).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Arthur’s Ride
Bright Future
National Treasure
Pick 5
(NYRA TURF)1/5/6-4-ALL-ALL-ALL
(NYRA TURF)1/5/6-4-ALL-ALL-ALL
$3
Superfecta
11-7-1-2
11-7-1-2
$605
Trifecta
11-7-1
11-7-1
$479
Pick 5
(NYRA TURF)1/5/6-4-ALL-ALL-ALL
(NYRA TURF)1/5/6-4-ALL-ALL-ALL
$3
Superfecta
11-7-1-2
11-7-1-2
$605
Trifecta
11-7-1
11-7-1
$479
