The $1.25 million, Grade 1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga dates all the way back to 1864, which means it’s older than the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes. The historic race annually attracts some of the best 3-year-old Thoroughbreds in the country and is practically an extra leg of the Triple Crown, so you don’t want to miss Saturday’s renewal of the 1 1/4-mile “Mid-Summer Derby.”

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The Travers can be a tricky race to handicap. The rich purse and great prestige combine to attract a wide variety of horses from around the country, ranging from established Grade 1 stars to exciting up-and-comers.

If you’re wondering which types of horses are more likely than others to visit the Travers winner’s circle, you’ve come to the right place. A deep dive into the history of the Travers reveals trends and tendencies uniting past winners, and we can use these data-driven gems to our advantage when handicapping the race.

Without further ado, let’s crunch the numbers and review our findings:

Any running style can win the Travers

No single running style has a clear-cut advantage in the Travers. The race often attracts a large field, which can — depending on the year — favor pacesetters, deep closers, or any runner in between.

Speed certainly isn’t a disadvantage in the Travers; we’ve seen two gate-to-wire winners since 2010, with another five winners rallying from second or third place after the opening half-mile. But we’ve also seen horses like Code of Honor, V. E. Day, Will Take Charge, and Afleet Express rally from midpack or even farther behind to reach the winner’s circle, suggesting the right horse can prevail with any running style.

Triple Crown participants perform well, but aren’t unbeatable

The Travers typically draws a strong group of alumni from the Triple Crown races: the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes. But horses with Triple Crown experience aren’t unbeatable in the “Mid-Summer Derby.” Eight of the last 14 winners started in a Triple Crown race, but the remaining six did not, suggesting up-and-comers are almost as likely as established spring stars to claim victory in the Travers.

Avoid the Haskell winner (and even Haskell starters)

The prestigious Grade 1 Haskell Stakes, held one month prior to the Travers at Monmouth Park in New Jersey, seems like a perfect steppingstone for the Travers. But among the last 14 Travers winners, only Keen Ice prepped in the Haskell, finishing second. And the last horse to win both races was Point Given in 2001, indicating the Haskell isn’t typically a productive prep race for the Travers.

Favor horses who last raced in New York

Forte winning Jim Dandy at Saratoga. (Eclipse Sportswire)

New York has long been an epicenter of high-class summer racing.  Since the Travers takes place in New York, it’s not surprising to see local runners dominate the proceedings on a regular basis. Ten of the last 14 Travers winners (71%) prepped for the race in New York, as did 22 of the last 39 trifecta finishers (56%). On three occasions in the last decade, New York runners ran 1-2-3 in the Travers.

The Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga has been an especially productive steppingstone toward the Travers. Since 2010, six Jim Dandy starters have gone on to win the Travers, including four horses —Stay Thirsty, Alpha, Essential Quality, and Epicenter — who won both races.

Bet on jockey Javier Castellano

No jockey has won more editions of the Travers than Javier Castellano, who has visited the winner’s circle aboard Bernardini (2006), Afleet Express (2010), Stay Thirsty (2011), V. E. Day (2014), Keen Ice (2015), and Catholic Boy (2018). Only Bernardini and Stay Thirsty were favored in the betting; Castellano’s other four victories came aboard longshots ranging in price from 7-1 to 16-1.

Favor horses entering off victories

Did you know 10 of the past 14 Travers winners (including the last seven in a row) entered off a victory? Horses in hot form tend to excel in the Travers. Even the four exceptions could be described as entering the Travers in encouraging form; all had placed second or third in their prep run, with three of them placing in a graded stakes.

Upgrade sons of Grade 1 winners at 1 1/8 miles or farther

With few exceptions, Travers winners tend to be sons of stallions who achieved Grade 1 success running 1 1/8 miles or farther. Eleven of the last 14 Travers winners were sired by stallions who matched this criterion, and two of the three rule-breaking stallions placed in graded stakes running 1 1/8 miles or farther. The other rule-breaker, Not This Time, ran second in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Respect favorites, but don’t dismiss longshots at 6-1 or higher

Favorites have performed well in recent editions of the Travers, with five betting favorites visiting the winner’s circle since 2010. That includes the last three winners: Tiz the Law, Essential Quality, and Epicenter.

But don’t count longshots out of the mix. Since 2010, Arrogate (11.70-1), Keen Ice (16-1), V. E. Day (19.50-1), and Golden Ticket (33.50-1) have all won the Travers at double-digit odds, while four other winners started at 6-1 or higher. If you fancy a non-favored runner in the Travers, don’t hesitate to give them a try.

Conclusions

The 2023 Travers appears to have attracted a strong field. For the first time since 2017, the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets winners are set to face off in the “Mid-Summer Derby.” Leadership of the 3-year-old division is on the line.

Kentucky Derby winner Mage is obviously a key contender, but he has several historical knocks on his profile. Rather than prepping in New York, Mage comes to the Travers by way of the Haskell Stakes, in which he rallied for second place.

Preakness Stakes hero National Treasure is the second classic winner in the prospective field, but he hasn’t raced since finishing sixth in the Belmont Stakes, and horses entering off defeats haven’t enjoyed much success in recent editions of the Travers. He is, however, more appealing from a historical perspective than Mage.

Arcangelo at Saratoga Race Course. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Arcangelo looks like the strongest of the three classic winners. He was last seen riding the rail to victory in the Belmont Stakes, putting a last-out victory in New York on his resume. As a son of record-shattering 2016 Travers winner Arrogate, Arcangelo brings a suitable pedigree to the table, and he’ll be ridden by Javier Castellano. The historical trends suggest Arcangelo is the most likely winner of the Travers.

Forte is another strong win threat from a historical perspective. After finishing second with a very wide trip in the Belmont Stakes, Forte bounced back to win the Jim Dandy Stakes presented by DK Horse at Saratoga. Overall, he’s the most accomplished entrant in the Travers field and is very likely to be favored in the betting, just like each of the last three Travers winners. The only real negative is the fact Forte’s sire, Violence, failed to win a Grade 1 race at 1 1/8 miles or farther, although he did win the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity racing 1 1/16 miles.

We also have to mention Scotland as a live longshot. An improving son of 2018 Haskell winner Good Magic, Scotland enters the Travers off a decisive 3 1/4-length victory in the 1 1/8-mile Curlin Stakes at Saratoga. He’ll almost certainly be higher than 6-1 in the betting, so Scotland is an excellent match for the historical profile of a Travers upset winner. Don’t count this talented gelding out of the mix.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!