The $1 million, Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes April 8 at Keeneland drew a field of 11 3-year-olds aspiring to make their marks and move on to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve in four weeks. The winner’s share of 100 points on the “Road to the Derby” makes it a certainty that said winner can run in the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” next month, but even finishing third (worth 30 points) could be enough for some horses which already accumulated some points in previous races. As of April 6, the current 20th-ranked horse on the Derby leaderboard sits at 34 points, and aside from the Blue Grass, the last two major points races will also be held Saturday in the form of the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct and the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.
Leading the Blue Grass field is Tapit Trice (50 points to date), winner of the Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby last month, which was his third consecutive victory. Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Classic Car Wash (26 points) hopes to run as well or better in the Blue Grass and make his way on to the big dance on May 6. Raise Cain (54 points) is another strong contender, having proven he belongs near the top of the division with a decisive 7 ½-length win last month in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes in New York. Verifying (14 points) was stakes-placed last year as a 2-year-old when second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes and finished fourth as the betting favorite in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in his most recent race. Blazing Sevens (16 points) won the Champagne last fall before a fourth-place effort in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. However, his only start this year resulted in an eighth of nine finish in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Sun Thunder (34 points) got on everyone’s radar with a big finish closing from 10th to second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque Crescent City Ford in February, but that was followed up by a non-threatening fifth place effort in the Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby two weeks ago. Hayes Strike (7 points) just won the non-graded Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park in Maryland and he was competitive last fall as a 2-year-old when third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, so he appears to fit with these. Scoobie Quando (8 points) rallied fast in the stretch for second in the John Battaglia Stakes five weeks ago and is another lightly raced and potentially improving prospect. Clear the Air (5 points) earned five points when rallying for fifth in the Gotham and appears to need a lot of improvement in order to earn significant points in this race. Mendelssohns March and Major Blue complete the field of 11, and both are entering stakes competition for the first time.
Analysis and top contenders:
I am going to start with Classic Car Wash, not because he’s superior to the three likely public choices in Tapit Trice, Verifying and Raise Cain, but because it is very likely he will offer the highest odds of the quartet. The colt continues to improve with every start, having raised his Equibase Speed Figures in four straight races, from 77, to 80, to 86 and then to 95. That last effort came when finishing second of 12 behind Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks ago. In that race, Classic Car Wash began in ninth in the field of 12, advanced to fourth with a quarter mile to run, was third with an eighth of a mile to run, and then made the lead and was accelerating before Tapit Trice showed his late kick to go by in the final sixteenth of a mile. I particularly like it when horses lead late in a race even if beaten by another horse or two because it shows they understand what their task is and they can respond to the jockey’s cues to accelerate when needed. Now, he gets the services of Javier Castellano and considering that his last-race 95 figure is just three points below the top last-race speed figure (98, by Tapit Trice) in the Blue Grass field, Classic Car Wash only has a slightly lesser probability to win than the morning-line favorite, but will offer about four times the return. That is why he is my top choice to win this year’s Blue Grass Stakes.
Tapit Trice started showing excellent physical ability and mental toughness in the second start of his career last December when he battled head-and-head with Wood Memorial starter Slip Mahoney in the final eighth of a mile before prevailing by a neck. The 96 figure earned he in that race was very strong for a 2-year-old in December, comparable to the 98 figure Blazing Sevens earned winning the Champagne Stakes last October. In his third career start, Tapit Trice pulled off to an eight length win with the same 96 figure, and then when he was sent to post as the prohibitive betting choice in the Tampa Bay Derby, he did not disappoint. Starting out 11th of 12 in that race, Tapit Trice showed little early speed until about three-sixteenths of a mile to run when reminded to start running harder by jockey Luis Saez. Continually passing horses, the colt went from 4 ½ lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go to draw off and win by two lengths, using big strides to gobble up the ground. Horses have won the Blue Grass Stakes coming from far back, and certainly Tapit Trice’s field-high last-race 98 figure earned in the Tampa Bay Derby can be improved upon. On the other hand, the pace in the Blue Grass projects to be slower than average, and that has the potential to hamper the same kind of late kick Tapit Trice showed in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Verifying was highly regarded in the Rebel Stakes near the end of February, entering the gate as the 3-2 betting choice. That support was based on his 3-year-old debut in January at Oaklawn Park, which he won easily by 5 ¼ lengths with an extremely strong 102 Equibase Speed Figure. Last fall, Verifying proved he fit with the best 2-year-olds when he made the lead late in the Champagne Stakes before being passed by winner Blazing Sevens, but he (as well as Blazing Sevens) did not follow through on that promise when finishing sixth of 10 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Allowed to mature over the winter, Verifying returned to win in the above-mentioned race at Oaklawn before he ran fourth in the Rebel. Although his Rebel effort was disappointing, he is eligible to bounce back in the Blue Grass, as he was not aggressively ridden in the Rebel and never established a good position – particularly in the critical early stages of the race when he was in traffic and weaved in and out behind other horses to find a clear path. With a jockey change Saturday to Tyler Gaffalione, this half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou ($7.4 million in earnings) may be able to get the lead shortly after the start, which makes him a threat to lead all the way and redeem himself in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Raise Cain burst on the scene last month in the Gotham Stakes with an upset win at 23.50-1 odds. He had run well when second at similar odds two races prior in the Gun Runner Stakes (earning a 92 Equibase figure), but after he finished a non-threating fifth in another stakes on Turfway Park’s synthetic track it appeared to bettors he was not improving. That was not the case, and Raise Cain showed a lot of moxie as he rallied from seventh in the Gotham with a quarter mile to go, got completely stopped in traffic, then re-accelerated to forge to the front and draw off to win by 7 ½ lengths and earn a 91 Equibase Speed Figure. Since that race, Raise Cain has been working very nicely at Keeneland in the morning, and he gets the services of Joel Rosario Saturday, so can be expected once again to be passing many horses, if not all of them, in the Blue Grass stretch run.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Blazing Sevens (98), Clear the Air (94), Hayes Strike (91), Mendelssohns March (83), Major Blue (91), Scoobie Quando (94) and Sun Thunder (94).
Win Contenders:
Classic Car Wash
Tapit Trice
Verifying
Raise Cain
Pick 4
2-2-8/13-1
2-2-8/13-1
$66
Pick 5
9-2-2-8/13-1
9-2-2-8/13-1
$695
Pick 5
9-2-2-8/13-1
9-2-2-8/13-1
$9
Pick 6
6-9-2-2-8/13-1
6-9-2-2-8/13-1
$82
Pick 6
6-9-2-2-8/13-1
6-9-2-2-8/13-1
$12,557
Superfecta
1-3-8-7
1-3-8-7
$22
Pick 4
2-2-8/13-1
2-2-8/13-1
$66
Pick 5
9-2-2-8/13-1
9-2-2-8/13-1
$695
Pick 5
9-2-2-8/13-1
9-2-2-8/13-1
$9
Pick 6
6-9-2-2-8/13-1
6-9-2-2-8/13-1
$82
Pick 6
6-9-2-2-8/13-1
6-9-2-2-8/13-1
$12,557
Superfecta
1-3-8-7
1-3-8-7
$22
