Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you.
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

The most important race of the summer is here. The $1.25 million, Grade 1 Travers Stakes is set at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, Aug. 26, and the “Mid-Summer Derby” will play a large part in deciding the 3-year-old champion for 2023. Beyond that, the Travers will also help determine some of the leading contenders for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park. The Travers headlines one of the premier days of racing and wagering of the entire year. The Travers Day card contains five Grade 1 races, and all are important top-level races in their own right, including the other 3-year-old feature on the card, the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. Let’s take a closer look at the Travers Stakes and the Jerkens Memorial. If we can get the winners of these two key races, we should be well on our way to a successful and fun day of racing and wagering this Saturday at the Spa. Best of luck.

Saratoga Race Course, Race 9, $500,000 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes, post time 4:19 p.m. ET

A field of six top 3-year-olds are set for this Grade 1 sprint at seven furlongs, and it should be an amazing race that showcases horses that don’t want to go as far as 1 ¼ miles in the Travers but who are nonetheless standout high-quality horses in the loaded 3-year-old division. Bob Baffert ships in two contenders for this race and the horse to beat in the Jerkens is #6 Arabian Lion, who has really come into his own in back-to-back wins in the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico and in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun last time out at Belmont Park, which was a decisive victory over #1 Drew’s Gold at this seven-furlong distance that generated a big speed figure. Arabian Lion won’t be beaten with another, similar effort. The biggest competition in the race is likely to come from Baffert’s other entrant, #4 Fort Bragg, who won a thrilling battle by a nose over Saudi Crown last time in the Grade 3 Dwyer Stakes while the pair was 11 lengths clear of the other horses. Fort Bragg has never raced as short as seven furlongs in any of his three career first-place finishes, but he has shown the ability to rate in the recent races and that should keep him safely out of any potential pace meltdown in this race if one were to happen, which means he’ll have plenty left in the tank late at this distance. Speaking of the pace, the leader should be #5 New York Thunder, who blazed to the lead and never looked back when crushing the Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes at Saratoga last time out. He’ll be tough if he’s able to repeat that effort, but the Baffert big guns who did not show up to face him last time will both be breathing down his neck this Saturday.

The Play: Bet to win on #6 Arabian Lion (2-1) and play him in an all-Baffert exacta box with #4 Fort Bragg (5-2).

Saratoga Race Course, Race 12, $1,250,000 Travers Stakes, post time 6:11 p.m. ET

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Three different horses won the three different Triple Crown races this year, and all three of those winners will square-off head-to-head for the first time with Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner #4 Mage, Preakness Stakes winner #5 National Treasure, and Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets winner #2 Arcangelo all among the principal Travers Stakes contenders. The Travers is not only a Triple Crown rubber match, however. The likely favorite and horse to beat in the race is none of the above-mentioned trio: it is 2022 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner #1 Forte, who will be out for revenge after being forced to miss two-thirds of the Triple Crown due to a bruised foot. In all, a field of seven has been drawn and is ready to go 1 ¼ miles on Saturday. Forte is the top-ranked contender for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic and can solidify that position with a win in the Travers. He’s already a Grade 1 winner at Saratoga as a 2-year-old in the Hopeful Stakes, and he exits a gritty victory at Saratoga when he bulled through traffic last time to win the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by DK Horse. When Forte scratched out of the Kentucky Derby and then Mage went on to win the run for the roses, it actually raised Forte’s stature instead of damaging it. That’s because Forte was 2-for-2 in head-to-head matchups against Mage this winter at Gulfstream Park in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. When Forte came up short in the Belmont Stakes, it was off a 10-week layoff after his entire racing and training routine was upset by his last-minute Derby scratch. Other than that, Forte has been rock solid and he is clearly the horse to beat.

Speaking of Mage, he’s racked-up a lot more losses than wins this year, losing to Forte twice at Gulfstream, losing to National Treasure in the Preakness, and then losing to Geaux Rocket Ride in the TVG.com Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park despite having the benefit of a 61.70-1 rabbit in the race that KO’d pacesetter Arabian Knight. Mage’s jockey, Javier Castellano, is off to ride Arcangelo in the Travers. Of all the challengers to Forte, Arcangelo looks like the top contender. Lightly raced up to this point in time, Arcangelo has pointed to this race ever since crossing the wire first in the Belmont Stakes, defeating Forte. Castellano certainly seems to like his chances. The final Travers contender worth mentioning is #6 Disarm trained by Steve Asmussen. He adds blinkers for the Travers and has speed figures that are right in the ballpark of the other top contenders in the race. He’s been looking for a legitimate pace to chase in his recent losses and should finally get a favorable set-up with National Treasure likely to be challenged up front by #7 Scotland. In a crazy year where a different 3-year-old seems to win every key race, wouldn’t it just be fitting if Disarm were to upset the apple cart and win the Travers?

The Play:  Bet #1 Forte (7-5) along with #2 Arcangelo (5-2) and #6 Disarm (8-1) in three-horse exacta and trifecta boxes.