Noel’s Weekend Winners: Identifying 2-Year-Old Turf Standouts at Woodbine

Gambling
Natalma Stakes, Summer Stakes, Woodbine, Charles Appleby, Eclipse Sportswire
Albahr, above, won the 2021 Summer Stakes for Charles Appleby and the Europe-based trainer is poised to have another big day at Woodbine this Saturday. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1.25 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.


Six Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
  2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you.
  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, Sept. 16

weekend TV schedule

Thursday, Sept. 14: 1-4 and 5:30-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Friday, Sept. 15: 1-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Sept. 16: 1-6:30 p.m. on FS2; 5-6 p.m. on NBC; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Sept. 17: 1-4 p.m. on FS2; 4-6 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday at Woodbine is Canada’s premier prep race day on the road to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships with three Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re in” races on the turf on the 12-race card. The headline race is the Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Woodbine Mile, and there will also be a pair of $500,000 juvenile races on the program that are prep races for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. While the featured Woodbine Mile drew a six-horse field topped by a big favorite, the 2-year-old stakes on the card, the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes and the Grade 1 Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes, both stack-up as excellent betting races that will award Breeders’ Cup starting berths to the winners. Best of luck and enjoy a great day of racing and wagering Saturday at Woodbine.

Woodbine, Race 6, $500,000 bet365 Summer Stakes, 3:57 p.m. ET

The Grade 1 Summer Stakes drew an 11-horse field of 2-year-olds ready to go one mile on the grass, and the field includes four fillies that have been cross-entered later on the card in the Natalma Stakes. If some or all of those fillies end up in this spot it will be to avoid an expected big favorite in the Natalma, but this spot certainly will not be any easier thanks to the presence of #2 Carson’s Run, trained by Christophe Clement. Carson’s Run won at first asking going long on the turf at Saratoga and exits a runner-up finish as the favorite in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes, which is the premier juvenile turf stakes run at the Saratoga meet. Carson’s Run actually had the lead in deep stretch in the With Anticipation until getting caught late by a deep closer at 1 1/16 miles, but perhaps the slightly shorter one-mile distance of this race will be enough to make the difference. The x-factor in the Summer Stakes will be #3 My Boy Prince, who comes into the race on a two-race winning streak in sprints on Woodbine’s all-weather surface, first winning a maiden race by six lengths going five furlongs and then winning the $200,000 Simcoe Stakes going 6 ½ furlongs wire-to-wire by 14 lengths last time out. This will be his first attempt stretching out in distance and first try on the turf, but he has already shown obvious talent and Joel Rosario is here to pick up the mount for trainer Mark Casse. If My Boy Prince handles the stretch-out on turf, the rest of this field could be in trouble.

The Play: Bet to win on #2 Carson’s Run (4-1) and play him in an exacta box with #3 My Boy Prince (3-1).

Woodbine, Race 8, $500,000 Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes, 5:07 p.m. ET

Charles Appleby, Woodbine, Natalma Stakes, Dazzling Star
Trainer Charles Appleby (Eclipse Sportswire)

The Grade 1 Natalma Stakes has drawn an overflow field of 15 2-year-old fillies set to go one mile on the Woodbine turf course, and even with some of these fillies cross-entered in the Summer Stakes we can still expect a deep field no matter what. The favorite and horse to beat in the Natalma will be #1 Dazzling Star, an English invader sent over by trainer Charlie Appleby for Godolphin with regular rider William Buick along for the trip. Dazzling Star was a maiden winner at Newmarket two races ago and exits a third-place finish in the Group 3 Bateaux London Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot last time out. Dazzling Star is a difficult horse to go against at probable low odds due to the astounding success that Appleby has had at Woodbine in recent years, with a seven-race winning streak in Woodbine Grade 1 races that already includes Natalma victories in 2018 with La Pelosa and in 2021 with Wild Beauty. With Appleby in the race with a handpicked invader, the Natalma becomes more about finding horses for the exacta and trifecta. The top challenge to Dazzling Star should come from #4 Brocknardini, who won her career debut going 1 1/16 miles on the turf at Saratoga on Aug. 2 and since was entered in Saratoga’s P.G. Johnson Stakes but then scratched when the race came off the turf. The third-place finisher behind Brocknardini in her debut win, Bernietakescharge, came back to win her next start by 8 ½ lengths at Saratoga. Trainer Chad Brown is represented in the Natalma field with #13 Dea Matrona, a French invader coming out of a maiden win who gets Joel Rosario aboard. Finally, of the local Woodbine contingent, the best of the bunch could be #6 Airosa, who is 2-for-2 on the Woodbine turf including a win last time out over some of these same horses in the 6 ½-furlong Catch a Glimpse Stakes.

The Play:  Bet #1 Dazzling Star (3-1) to win and box her in the exacta with #4 Brocknardini (12-1). Play trifectas keying Dazzling Star on top and using Brocknardini, #6 Airosa (4-1) and #13 Dea Matrona (10-1) underneath.


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