The $400,000, Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes Saturday at Gulfstream Park features the return of Forte, last year’s 2-year-old male Eclipse Award winner. Forte earned that distinction by winning three Grade 1 races, including the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance in his final two starts of 2022. Forte is likely to be the heavy betting favorite, but he has not run since Breeders’ Cup Friday on Nov. 4 and faces nine other contenders trying to make their mark in the division as well as earn important Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifying points.
Leading the charge to try to defeat Forte are two recent stakes winners at Gulfstream, Rocket Can and General Jim. Rocket Can won the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes four weeks ago at the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Fountain of Youth while General Jim won the Grade 3 Claiborne Farm Swale Stakes on the same day at seven furlongs. Holy Bull runner-up Shadow Dragon as well as fourth- and fifth-place finishers Legacy Isle and Il Miracolo, respectively, hope to improve in the Fountain of Youth. Cyclone Mischief, sent to post as the heavy favorite in the Holy Bull, tries to make amends off his poor seventh-place effort. Blazing Sevens finished fourth of 10 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Forte and also returns off the same four-month layoff. Dangerous Ride steps up in class off a win in an allowance race over the track and Mage stakes a bigger step up in class off of a maiden win.
Analysis and main win contenders:
Before discussing the horses I think have the highest probability to win this year’s Fountain of Youth, I want to talk about the likely favorite, Forte, who I don’t believe is one of the top three contenders to win although the public at large undoubtedly will. So far this year in Kentucky Derby prep races, three horses returning for their first starts of 2023 failed at low odds – Giant Mischief (Rebel Stakes), Dubyuhnell (Sam F. Davis Stakes) and Arctic Arrogance (Jerome Stakes). All were bet heavily and as if they were returning off of just a few weeks of rest instead of a couple months or more. Horses are athletes, and in particular newly-turned 3-year-olds often need a race following a layoff before running well enough to win when compared to horses of similar caliber which have run in the past month or so.
History bears this out as well, because only one top Breeders’ Cup Juvenile top finisher has returned to win the Fountain of Youth, and that was in 2011 when Union Rags won this race after a runner-up effort in the Juvenile four months earlier. One other horse won this race in his sophomore debut off a long layoff and that was Promises Fulfilled in 2018, who had finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes the previous fall. Most if not all of the other editions of the Fountain of Youth Stakes have seen horses returning from three to four months off fare poorly. What that tells me is Forte will have his work cut out for him in order to pick up where he left off with an effort good enough to repeat his career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, although he certainly could be in the top three to fill out the exacta or trifecta.
Therefore, General Jim is by far the horse with the highest probability to win this year’s Fountain of Youth Stakes in my opinion. As with a number of top 3-year-olds over the past few years, General Jim ran on turf as a 2-year-old, winning his first race around two turns in the second start of his career last September. Coming right back to win a highly rated two-turn turf race in October, General Jim earned a career best 99 Equibase Speed Figure which is the third-highest figure earned by any horse in this field behind Forte and Cyclone Mischief. After a third-place effort in the Central Park Stakes on turf in November, General Jim shortened up to a one-turn mile for a fourth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes when moving back to dirt. He arguably might have won the Mucho Macho Man as the 2.30-1 betting favorite if he hadn’t been blocked for most of the stretch run. Trainer Shug McGaughey tried blinkers for the colt’s next start, four weeks ago in the Swale Stakes over Gulfstream’s dirt track and the result was a strong win accompanied by a 92 figure. Jockey Luis Saez has been in the saddle for all three of the colt’s wins and he rides back Saturday. General Jim drew the ground-saving rail and has a pedigree (by sire Into Mischief and out of a Curlin mare) which suggests he will love this distance (and longer) on dirt. There’s also history in favor of General Jim moving from a seven-furlong stakes to winning the Fountain of Youth, because at one time the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes was a prep for this race as the Swale is now, and in 2014 Wildcat Red used the Hutcheson as a prep to winning this race.
Trainer Bill Mott has a pair of top contenders in the form of Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon, the one-two finishers in the Holy Bull Stakes four weeks ago on the same day General Jim won the Swale. Historically, Holy Bull runners have had a big impact in the Fountain of Youth. Gunnevera (2018), Ete Indien (2020), Scat Daddy (2007) and last year’s winner Simplification all prepped in the Holy Bull before emerging victorious in this race. Both Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon are making their second starts off layoffs and can be expected to improve, and Mott has had a lot of success in Derby prep races with 3-year-olds making their second starts of the year, amassing three wins and three runner-up finishers from eight starters the past few years. Although Rocket Can earned an 89 Equibase Speed Figure compared to 88 for Shadow Dragon – both much lower than the career-best 99 figure General Jim has earned – both colts deserve the same amount of respect in this race if for no other reason that their Hall of Fame trainer has enough confidence to enter both in this situation.
The rest of the field, most who have the ability to compete effectively in this race (with their best Equibase Speed Figures): Blazing Sevens (98), Cyclone Mischief (101), Dangerous Ride (82), Il Miracolo (81), Legacy Isle (82) and Mage (88).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
General Jim
Rocket Can
Shadow Dragon
Pick 3
9-10-4
9-10-4
$384
Pick 4
1-9-10-1/4
1-9-10-1/4
$1,983
Pick 5
COAST TO COAST: 9-6-10-3-1/4
COAST TO COAST: 9-6-10-3-1/4
$11,057
Pick 5
6-1-9-10-1/4
6-1-9-10-1/4
$12,105
Pick 5
6-1-9-10-1/4
6-1-9-10-1/4
$56
Pick 6 Jackpot
9-6-1-9-10-1/4
9-6-1-9-10-1/4
$31,053
Daily Double
10-4
10-4
$15
Superfecta
4-8-9-7
4-8-9-7
$34
Super High Five
4-8-9-7-3
4-8-9-7-3
$699
Pick 3
9-10-4
9-10-4
$384
Pick 4
1-9-10-1/4
1-9-10-1/4
$1,983
Pick 5
COAST TO COAST: 9-6-10-3-1/4
COAST TO COAST: 9-6-10-3-1/4
$11,057
Pick 5
6-1-9-10-1/4
6-1-9-10-1/4
$12,105
Pick 5
6-1-9-10-1/4
6-1-9-10-1/4
$56
Pick 6 Jackpot
9-6-1-9-10-1/4
9-6-1-9-10-1/4
$31,053
Daily Double
10-4
10-4
$15
Superfecta
4-8-9-7
4-8-9-7
$34
Super High Five
4-8-9-7-3
4-8-9-7-3
$699
