Forte Formidable in Florida Derby, But Several Runners Have Upset Potential

March 28th, 2023 by Ellis Starr

Fountain of Youth Stakes Florida Derby Forte Mage Cyclone Mischief Gulfstream Park Kentucky Derby Triple Crown

The field for the Fountain of Youth Stakes rounds the first turn March 4 at Gulfstreaam Park, and three of the top four finishers return Saturday for the Florida Derby. (Gulfstream Park/Sonny Hughes)

The Grade 1, $1 million Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa brings together a field of 12 vying for the winner’s share of the purse and valuable Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifying points. The winner of the race gets 100 points, which guarantees a starting spot in the gate on the first Saturday in May. However, even the 20 points that goes to the fourth-place finisher and 10 that go to the fifth-place finisher could be quite important in helping a horse’s connections choose to start in the run for the roses considering the 19^th-place horse on the list (Classic Car Wash) has 26 points. The 20^th-place horse on the list is Continuar, who has accepted an automatic invitation to the Kentucky Derby.

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The heavy betting favorite in this year’s Florida Derby will be Forte, who has 90 points to date and who won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month in his first race since a victory in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA in November. Among the other 11, just three have in-the-money finishes in graded stakes for 3-year-olds this year. Cyclone Mischief is one of those, having led for the first mile in the Fountain of Youth before fading to third. Mage finished fourth of nine in the same race and, this being his third career start and second around two turns, he may have significant improvement forthcoming. West Coast Cowboy finished third of eight in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes in January and could show improvement in his second start following two months off. Dubyuhnell has positive experience at the level when winning the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last fall. However, he followed that with an eighth of 11 finish in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February. Similarly, Fort Bragg, who was entered in the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby March 26 but was rerouted to this race, finished third in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity last December before a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes four weeks ago. The other six look a bit overmatched but 3-year-olds at this time of year do have the ability to really improve from one race to the next. Those are Il Miracolo, Jungfrau, Mr. Peeks, Mr. Ripple, Nautical Star, and Shaq Diesel.

Analysis and main win contenders:

There’s no doubt Forte is the horse to beat. He returned last month from a four-month rest to easily win the Fountain of Youth Stakes by 4 1/2 lengths as if he’d never been away. Last year, after winning the Hopeful Stakes around one turn in September with a 95 Equibase Speed Figure, Forte truly blossomed when stretched out to two turns, winning the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity with a 102 figure and then the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a 105 figure. There’s not much to add because his resume speaks for itself. The colt has demonstrated a tremendous burst of speed whenever jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. asks him, as evidenced in the Fountain of Youth when the colt went from fourth, two lengths behind the leader with a quarter-mile to run, to third (just a half-length back) to draw off. The ONLY knock, if there is one, is that Forte drew post-position 11 in a field of 12 for this 1 1/8-mile trip, which at Gulfstream Park starts fairly close to the first turn. However, considering Forte usually races in fifth to seventh in the early stages, he just needs to get past a few horses to not lose too much ground around the first turn. From then on, his mental and physical ability could do the rest.

Mage (Gulfstream Park/Jeff Zamaiko)

All that being said, considering Forte will be the prohibitive betting favorite, a horse like Mage is very interesting, particularly as he is very likely to be ignored by many bettors. Comparing the much more lightly raced Mage with Forte, Mage, like Forte, won his career debut in very easy fashion, earning an 88 speed figure at the time. When winning in his debut last May, Forte earned a 91 figure, before regressing to 80 when fourth in the Sanford Stakes last July. Forte then proceeded to earned 95, 102, 105, and 106 figures starting with his Hopeful Stakes win last September. Mage also improved significantly, to earn a 95 figure, when stepped up in class last month in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in only the second start of his career and first around two turns. Hitting the stall gate as the race started, Mage was away last of nine then rushed up to be fourth after a quarter-mile had been run. He then made a bid at the leaders to get within a half-length on the far turn before running evenly. Although the number of lengths behind the leader from an eighth of a mile to go until the finish increased from one to 6 3/4, that was a bit deceiving as Forte drew off by 4 1/2 lengths. Early pacesetter Cyclone Mischief faded to third, beaten 5 ¾ lengths, with Mage just one length farther back. Thinking about what might have occurred if Mage had not gotten away last and rushed up mid-race, but rather had that burst of speed in the stretch, it is entirely conceivable the colt could have finished second. There is little doubt Mage has the pedigree to run this 1 1/8-mile trip, as his dam’s sire is 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown and his sire is 2018 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Good Magic. Given the pattern of improvement from an 88 figure in his debut to 95 (with trouble) in only the second start of his career, and in a graded stakes race, Mage has a big shot to get into the 102 range which is certainly good enough for second here if Forte improves off his last effort. If, on the other hand, Forte only repeats his last effort, Mage has a chance to post an upset.

Dubyuhnell has a similarly disadvantageous post as Forte, having drawn the outside in this field of 12. Sent to post as the favorite in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 11, following more than two months off, Dubyuhnell had significant traffic trouble on the first turn which caused him to fall back to 10th and he could not recover thereafter. However, he’s worked strongly in the mornings since that last race. Considering he won the Remsen Stakes at the distance of the Florida Derby last fall with a 101 figure and that his most recent effort might be an outlier, Dubyuhnell could have a say in the outcome of this race.

Nautical Star is a very interesting longshot in this year’s Florida Derby, very likely to be at least 20-1 odds when the field enters the starting gate. He is one of four horses in the race trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., and he shared ownership with one of those, Mr. Peeks. Nautical Star has run twice to date, both sprints at the distance of six furlongs. In his most recent effort when improving to a 93 speed figure, Nautical Star rallied from seventh of 11 to win by a nose. Both Nautical Star and Mr. Peeks were privately purchased following their most recent races. Given that Mr. Peeks (who is still a maiden) is stretching out to two turns, as well as has had the lead from the start through the first five furlongs in both career starts, it appears he is entered to ensure an honest pace for Nautical Star to close into. Sire Dixie Chatter stands in Oklahoma for a pretty low ($2,500) stud fee but won two graded stakes in his career, including the Grade 2 Norfolk Stakes at 1 1/16 miles as a 2-year-old, and a Race Lens query reveals Dixie Chatter has sired nine dirt route winners from just 22 foals to run in dirt routes. I’m not predicting Nautical Star can win the Florida Derby in a huge upset, but it appears very plausible the colt could rally into second or third as many horses tire late, therefore providing for a nice payout in the exacta or trifecta. I also wouldn’t hesitate to bet $2 or $5 to win in the rare case he did post the upset.

The rest of the field (with best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Cyclone Mischief (101), Fort Bragg (100), Il Miracolo (80), Jungfrau (87), Mr. Peeks (90), Mr. Ripple (96), Shaq Diesel (84), and West Coast Cowboy (85).

Win Contenders in preference order:

Mage

Forte

Dubyuhnell

Longshot consideration: Nautical Star