The Stonestreet Lexington Stakes is the last qualifying race on the Road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby schedule offering points toward securing a starting spot in the run for the roses, and the 1 1/16-mile race drew an intriguing mix of Derby trail veterans and lightly raced up-and-comers.
In fact, six of the 11 entrants for the Lexington Stakes April 15 at Keeneland have competed in at lead one qualifying points race; however, only Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby runner-up Disarm has a realistic chance to qualify for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.
#6 Disarm earned all of his 40 points in the Louisiana Derby and needs six points to jump ahead of Jace’s Road for the final available spot in the 20-horse field, although a few defections could make his path easier.
The Lexington Stakes offers 20 points to the winner and 8-6-4-2 qualifying points to the next four places, so a third from Disarm would punch his ticket to Louisville on May 6.
Disarm very likely will be the favorite or the second betting choice at least, and the chestnut Gun Runner colt is absolutely a serious win candidate for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen coming off a second to Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby. Disarm was compromised by a front-running leader allowed to set a leisurely pace and he was really the only runner in the race who made up significant ground late at Fair Grounds March 25.
Can Disarm duplicate or improve upon that race on three weeks rest? Perhaps, but I’m a little skeptical and so I’ll look to a of lightly raced 3-year-old to try to beat him, #8 Empirestrikesfast, and another lightly raced entrant, #5 First Mission, to pair up in exotic bets like the exacta and trifecta.
I will admit that I was slightly intrigued, as a Star Wars fan, by Empirestrikesfast’s name, but I am certainly not a bettor who plunks down a $20 or more win bet based upon name (if that’s your approach, I’m not here to criticize). I went back and re-watched twice the Empire Maker gelding’s lone start to date, March 11 at Gulfstream Park, and a few things jumped out at me.
First, when heavily favored Dreamlike surged past Empirestrikesfast approaching the stretch, almost any first-time starter would have thrown in the towel, but he fought back resolutely on the inside to win at 23.90-1 odds for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.
Empirestrikesfast’s win was flattered when Dreamlike finished third by a head in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino April 8 at Aqueduct.
It was a heck of a debut at the same 1 1/16-mile distance of the Lexington Stakes with a strong final sixteenth of a mile in 6.20 seconds. Mott is typically a patient trainer, so my guess is he will be even better in his second start with five weeks rest. He has good tactical speed and he’s my win play.
I also was very encouraged by First Mission’s 6 ¾-length maiden win March 18 at Fair Grounds for two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox. The Godolphin homebred Steet Sense colt showed push-button acceleration and pulled well clear in the stretch after a very good second sprinting in his career debut a month earlier.
For my exotic bets, I’ll try to beat Disarm and Bob Baffert’s California invader #11 Arabian Lion and look to spruce up the payouts with a couple of horses that should come from off the pace that I expect to offer value in #3 Demolition Duke and #7 Denington.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 win on #8 Empirestrikesfast
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $10 to win on #8
Exacta Strategy on a $20 Budget
$4 exacta box: 5,8 ($8)
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $4 exacta 5,8
$2 exacta: 5,8 with 3,5,7,8 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $2 exacta part wheel 5,8 with 3,5,7,8
Trifecta Strategy on a $30 Budget
$2.50 trifecta: 5,8 with 3,5,7,8 with 3,5,7,8 ($30)
What to say at the betting window: Keeneland, Race 9, $2.50 trifecta part wheel 5,8 with 3,5,7,8 with 3,5,7,8
Daily Double
10-5
10-5
$15
Superfecta
5-11-6-7
5-11-6-7
$38
Trifecta
5-11-6
5-11-6
$27
Daily Double
10-5
10-5
$15
Superfecta
5-11-6-7
5-11-6-7
$38
Trifecta
5-11-6
5-11-6
$27
