The $1 million, Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby Saturday at Fair Grounds drew a full field of 12 3-year-olds trying to earn significant points on the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, with the points earned from first to fifth (100-40-30-20-10) likely to enable even the runner-up or third place finisher to enter the starting gate on the first Saturday in May if they have already scored some points in earlier races.
Seven of the dozen entered have done that, and the group is led by Instant Coffee (32), who won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in January in his most recent race. Sun Thunder (24 points) finished second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Lincoln and Lamarque City Ford last month over this track, a race in which Tapit’s Conquest (10 points) was fourth. Curly Jack was eighth of 14 in the Risen Star but won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes and was second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall behind Instant Coffee, and he has earned 17 points. Single Ruler earned five points for a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star. Others with Derby qualifying points are Jace’s Road (15) and Denington (8). Jace’s Road won the Gun Runner Stakes on this track in December before posting a fifth-place finish in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at the end of January, while Denington earned points for a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club, a third-place effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes and a fourth-place finish in the Lecomte. Among those moving to this level for the first time, Kingsbarns is undefeated in two starts and is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Louisiana Derby four times in his career. Cagliostro enters the race off a narrow loss to Denington in an allowance race last month, while both Shopper’s Revenge and Disarm similarly ran second in their most recent starts at that same level. Baseline Beater rounds out the field, stepping up in class off a maiden win last month in his fifth career start.
Analysis and main win contenders:
Sun Thunder appears ready for his best effort based on a strong pattern of improvement and the fact that he has run the best of any horse in the field at the distance 1 1/8 miles, just one sixteenth of a mile less than the 1 3/16-mile distance of the Louisiana Derby. Stretched out to two turns in the second start of his career on New Year’s Eve at Oaklawn Park, Sun Thunder won convincingly by 6 ½ lengths in a field of 12 while earning an 83 Equibase Speed Figure. Next out, he finished fourth of eight in the Southwest Stakes near the end of January, but in terms of speed figures he improved, this time earning a 92. Running at Fair Grounds for the first time five weeks ago in the Risen Star Stakes, Sun Thunder improved again to a 94 figure when finishing second of 14. In addition to this forward pattern, Sun Thunder showed a lot of physical and mental prowess as he rallied from 10th with three-eighths of a mile to go to lead in the stretch – a and while he was being passed late and lost by one length, he still clearly held second. Being a son of Into Mischief (the sire of 2021 Louisiana Derby winner Mandaloun), there is no doubt Sun Thunder has what it takes to win this race and with just logical improvement off his most recent effort the colt can do just that.
Kingsbarns is the most lightly-raced horse in the field, having run just twice. In spite of that, he may have what it takes to win the Louisiana Derby based on his most recent effort. In his first race around two turns, last month at Tampa Bay Downs, he won easily by nearly eight lengths. The 100 figure earned in victory is the best last-race figure in this field and second-best among any horse in the race, behind Jace’s Road’s 101 figure earned when winning the Gun Runner Stakes in December. Trained by Todd Pletcher, whose most recent win in the Louisiana Derby came in 2018 with Noble Indy, Kingsbarns is another colt with breeding to succeed in this race as sire Uncle Mo produced 2022 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Mo Donegal and 2020 Risen Star Stakes winner Modernist. According to Stats Race Lens, Kingsbarns exits the fastest prep race for the Louisiana Derby in terms of early fractional times, and the Race Lens pace projector suggests he has a good chance to assume the lead from the start on Saturday. Considering that he did not slow down in the last eighth of a mile in that race at Tampa, Kingsbarns may have the late kick needed to hold off the closers such as Sun Thunder and win this year’s Louisiana Derby.
Instant Coffee has won three of four races, including two important stakes races in a row. The first of the pair was in November when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and earned a 83 Equibase Speed Figure. After maturing over the next two months, Instant Coffee returned to win the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds rather decisively by 2 ½ lengths, improving to earn a 99 figure which is the second highest last race figure (behind Kingsbarns) in the field. My only concern with Instant Coffee surrounds his two-month absence from Kentucky Derby preps when he could have run in the Risen Star Stakes last month. However, trainer Brad Cox (who also saddles Jace’s Road and Tapit’s Conquest) has a fine record with horses coming off layoffs in big events and in Kentucky Derby preps, including a win in the 2020 Louisiana Derby with Wells Bayou. Jockey Luis Saez, who has been aboard for the colt’s last two wins, rides back. If he improves off his last effort in the Lecomte and that 99 figure, Instant Coffee can be the one getting his picture taken in the winner’s circle after the Louisiana Derby.
Honorable mention goes to a trio of horses perhaps just a cut below the top three. Those are Cagliostro, Denington and Jace’s Road. Denington and Cagliostro were separated by a neck at the wire when first and second, respectively, in an allowance race at Fair Grounds last month run on the same day as the Risen Star. They earned 94 and 93 figures for those efforts, which do match up nicely with the 94 figure Sun Thunder earned later on the same day when second in the Risen Star. Denington previously finished fifth and was only 1 ½ lengths behind Instant Coffee in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall. Two races later, he was fourth behind the same horse in the Lecomte, so perhaps with a confidence booster under his belt he could be a contender. By a similar token, Cagliostro was close enough to Denington in his most recent start to believe he has a shot as well. Jace’s Road showed he could compete at this level when winning the Gun Runner Stakes in January over the track before a mustering a fifth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Back at Fair Grounds Saturday, he might revert to his previous form.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Baseline Beater (88), Curly Jack (91), Disarm (85), Shopper’s Revenge (95), Single Ruler (92) and Tapit’s Conquest (98).
Win Contenders:
Sun Thunder
Kingsbarns
Instant Coffee
Pick 4
3-5-1-6
3-5-1-6
$1,108
Pick 5
6-3-5-1-6
6-3-5-1-6
$5,451
Pick 6
10-6-3-5-1-6
10-6-3-5-1-6
$434
Pick 6
10-6-3-5-1-6
10-6-3-5-1-6
$51,901
Superfecta
6-5-11-1
6-5-11-1
$351
Trifecta
6-5-11
6-5-11
$192
Pick 4
3-5-1-6
3-5-1-6
$1,108
Pick 5
6-3-5-1-6
6-3-5-1-6
$5,451
Pick 6
10-6-3-5-1-6
10-6-3-5-1-6
$434
Pick 6
10-6-3-5-1-6
10-6-3-5-1-6
$51,901
Superfecta
6-5-11-1
6-5-11-1
$351
Trifecta
6-5-11
6-5-11
$192
