The $1.7 million, Grade 2 FanDuel Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes Saturday at Kentucky Downs will likely run with a full field of 12 considering there are four other horses entered, all of whom are also-eligible (who run if a horse in the main body of the race withdraws).
The 1 ½-mile race not only offers big prize money but also an automatic entry into the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf in November. Three millionaires are among the group, led by the winner of the 2022 Kentucky Turf Cup, Red Knight, who most recently closed fast to finish third in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes. That race was won by Therapist, who is an 8-year-old, the same age as Red Knight was when he won this race last year. Foreign Relations finished sixth in the United Nations but won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes at this distance in May. Santin won the Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes in 2022 and recently finished second in the 2023 renewal so he fits at this level; however, it’s worth noting that this is his first ever attempt at the mile and one-half distance. Verstappen won the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes in April at the distance and was recently second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes, in which Never Explain finished third. Me and Mr. C won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes last month and has now won 10 of 33 races. Cellist is one of the also-eligibles, but he fits here if he draws into the race as he was second by a neck behind Me and Mr. C in the Preview Turf Cup and won the 2022 Louisville Stakes. Spooky Channel, who won the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Nation in March, is another horse who excels at these marathon distances as he has won three of six races at 1 ½ miles including the Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes in 2021. Kitodan is one of a few horses with positive experience at Kentucky Downs, having captured the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Derby last year. Another Mystery finished fast from 10th to get third and miss winning by a neck behind Red Knight in last year’s Turf Cup and is another possible contender. Get Smokin is another who has never run this far but he has run well at the level as he was second in the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes in July. Sy Dog (one of the also-eligibles) won the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes last year as a 3-year-old but is winless in six races since. Nautilus, as well as also-eligibles Highest Honors and Red Run, round out the field.
Analysis and win contenders:
Three trainers who have entrants in this race have proven to have their horses ready for this mile and one-half test over the past 10 years. Paulo Lobo, who saddles Nautilus, won this race in 2021 with Imperador. Chris Block won this race in 2014 with Suntracer and will have Another Mystery this year. Then there’s trainer Mike Maker, with five wins in the past 10 years, including Red Knight last year. In addition to Red Knight coming back for a repeat bid, Maker also entered Therapist and Me and Mr. C.
Among the group above, Me and Mr. C is the most intriguing as he enters the Turf Cup on a three-race winning streak and has now won 10 of 33 starts in his career. Jockey Gerardo Corrales has ridden Me and Mr. C in his last two races and stays aboard, although he was also the one who guided Red Knight to win the 2022 Turf Cup. Additionally, Me and Mr. C appears to be on the same pattern as Red Knight last year. Me and Mr. C earned a 96 Equibase Speed Figure winning in June, then improved to 103 with his victory in July before earning a career-best 109 figure taking the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup last month. Last year, Red Knight earned a 108 figure in his previous start before a 112 figure when victorious in this race. As such, Me and Mr. C appears capable of posting the upset win at 10-1 on the morniing line just as his stablemate Red Knight did in this race last year when sent off at 12.02-1 odds
Verstappen proved he belongs in the top turf marathon division with a strong win this past April in the Elkhorn Stakes, in which he earned a career best 112 figure going 1 ½ miles. Prior to that, he won two races in a row at a 1 ¼ miles and finished second in the Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes at the shorter distance of 1 1/8 miles. Following a seventh-place finish behind Red Knight in the Man O’ War Stakes in May, Verstappen was beaten only a little over a length by Me and Mr. C in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup in July, and he then improved to be second at the end of that month in the Bowling Green Stakes, earning a 107 figure. This pattern suggests he is ready to take another step forward as he stretches out back to 1 ½ miles in the Turf Cup.
Red Knight has now banked over $1.8 million, winning 12 of 33 career races on turf. Two races after winning the 2022 Kentucky Turf Cup, Red Knight won the William L. McKnight Stakes Presented by Davidoff Cigars back in January at the mile-and-a-half distance with a 113 figure similar to the 112 earned in the Turf Cup. Then, two races later he won the Man o’ War Stakes. In his most recent race on July 22 in the United Nations Stakes, Red Knight was last of eight for most of the race but managed to pass a number of horses and finish third. That race was held at a mile and three-eighths, so now that he’s returning to his favorite distance of a mile and a half – where he has won or placed six times – Red Knight has a strong chance to become the third horse in history to win this race in back-to-back years, following in the footsteps of Rochester (2002-2003) and Da Big Hoss (2015-2016).
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Another Mystery (112), Cellist (111), Foreign Relations (106), Get Smokin (115), Highest Honors (111), Kitodan (107), Nautilus (102), Never Explain (110), Red Run (99), Santin (110), Spooky Channel (112), Sy Dog (111) and Therapist (116).
Main Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Me and Mr. C
Verstappen
Red Knight
Pick 4
1-9-6-5
1-9-6-5
$10,057
Pick 5
2-1-9-6-5
2-1-9-6-5
$88,264
Consolation Pick 3
9-9-5
9-9-5
$234
Superfecta
5-12-4-2
5-12-4-2
$1,659
Super High Five
5-12-4-2-3
5-12-4-2-3
$13,219
Trifecta
5-12-4
5-12-4
$1,409
Pick 4
1-9-6-5
1-9-6-5
$10,057
Pick 5
2-1-9-6-5
2-1-9-6-5
$88,264
Consolation Pick 3
9-9-5
9-9-5
$234
Superfecta
5-12-4-2
5-12-4-2
$1,659
Super High Five
5-12-4-2-3
5-12-4-2-3
$13,219
Trifecta
5-12-4
5-12-4
$1,409
