Soglio Primed to Give Graham Motion Fourth Spiral Win

March 23rd, 2017 by Ellis Starr

Soglio ships in from California for the Spiral Stakes for trainer Graham Motion. (BENOIT photo)

The 46th running of the $500,000 Jack Cincinnati Casino Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park brings together a field of 12 in search of the 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points the winner earns, virtually guaranteeing that horse a spot in the gate in Louisville in just six weeks. Some of the most accomplished horses in this race have done their best on turf and hope to make the transition to a synthetic surface like Animal Kingdom did in 2011 before victory in the Kentucky Derby. Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes runner-up Kitten's Cat leads the list of horses proven competitive in stakes on the grass, with Eddie Logan Stakes runner-up Soglio and recent Sage of Monticello Stakes winner Fast and Accurate two more previous turf runners of note. Todd Pletcher ships in Bronson off a strong allowance win and given his recent success with shippers (One Liner in the Southwest and Malagacy in the Rebel) in Derby prep races, this colt deserves a look. Convict Pike finished second in the OBS Championship on all-weather in his most recent race and appears to fit with these, as does John Battaglia Memorial Stakes runner-up En Hanse. King and His Court makes his second start off a layoff and won the Display Stakes last fall on an all-weather surface so must be considered another contender. Colonel Samsen won the Gold Rush Stakes on all-weather in December but has run poorly in three starts since.

Soglio gets slight preference even though the career-best tying 97 Equibase Speed Figure earned when second in the Eddie Logan Stakes in December is far afield from the 105 figure Kitten's Cat earned in his most recent race. Jockey Trevor McCarthy, a mainstay for the barn of trainer Graham Motion, takes off an entire day of mounts at Laurel to ride this colt who returns from nearly two months off and won the last time he came back from a similar rest.

Although Soglio has never raced on any surface other than turf, Stats Race Lens tells us that sons and daughters of his sire, Scat Daddy, have performed very well when racing in two-turn stakes on all-weather over the last five years, with three wins and two runner-up finishes from 18 races including Azar, who missed by a neck in last year's Spiral. Considering Motion won the Spiral with Animal Kingdom in 2011 off a turf effort, which is the same pattern presented by Soglio, I think this colt can get the job done and punch his ticket to the Derby.

Convict Pike has never been worse than third in four tries around two turns, most recently when rallying to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to go before settling for second in the OBS Championship Stakes. That was his first race on all-weather so Convict Pike should improve on the 90 figure earned in his second start on the surface.

Kitten's Cat (Bob Coglianese/Gulfstream Park)

Kitten's Cat, like Soglio, has raced exclusively on turf to date in his career. Kitten's Cat won the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes last fall, then after two months off returned to finish fourth in the Dania Beach Stakes in January. Improving markedly second off the layoff, Kitten's Cat won the Kitten's Joy Stakes (named after his sire) before a very strong second-place finish in the Palm Beach Stakes after leading in the stretch. Since he has never run on all-weather, I turned to Stats Race Lens to see how sons and daughters of Kitten's Joy have fared in two-turn stakes on the surface. On one hand, their combined 2 for 66 record over the past five years is not very encouraging. On the other hand, one of the two winners was Oscar Nominated in last year's Spiral at 23-to-1. Considering top jockey Luis Saez takes comes in from Florida to ride and has been aboard for his last two wins, Kitten's Cat must be taken seriously as a contender in the Spiral.

King and His Court tried dirt for the first time last month in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and finished last of nine but that can be considered an irrelevant race. He won the Display Stakes and Coronation Futurity on all-weather prior to that and, back on his preferred surface, could return to competitive form.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Blueridge Traveler (83), Bronson (83), Colonel Samsen (85), En Hanse (93), Fast and Accurate (87), Giant Payday (101) Parlor (88) and Shiraz (93).

My selections:
Soglio
Convict Pike
Kitten's Cat
King and His Court