
Power Rankings: Owen Almighty Enters Derby Top 10 after Tampa Tour de Force
Every day of the year is part of Kentucky Derby season for horse racing fans in the Bluegrass State, but anticipation for the sport’s biggest event really picks up each spring when Keeneland Race Course in Lexington kicks off its April meet with an opening weekend highlighted by the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
This year, the buzz is higher than usual as the Blue Grass, a key prep race for 3-year-olds in pursuit of the Triple Crown, celebrates its 100th running.
The Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes awards qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis to the top five finishers. Twenty-three horses coming out of the Blue Grass have won the Derby, including such champions as Whirlaway, Chateaugay, Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge, Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Unbridled, and Thunder Gulch. Street Sense in 2007 was the last horse to run in the Blue Grass Stakes and then win the Kentucky Derby, finishing second at Keeneland before wearing the garland of roses at Churchill Downs.
Held at 1 1/8 miles, the 2024 Blue Grass drew a competitive 11-horse field headlined by two talented colts, Dornoch and Sierra Leone, that first competed last fall as 2-year-olds in the Remsen Stakes (with Dornoch winning by a nose) and have subsequently trained on to become top-rated contenders for the 150th Kentucky Derby May 4.
The Blue Grass Stakes has a scheduled post time of 5:52 p.m. ET. It will be televised live on FanDuel TV and will be replayed and analyzed by NBC Sports’ horse racing team during a show starting at 7 p.m. ET, airing on CNBC and streaming on Peacock.
Read on for information about all of the Blue Grass Stakes starters.
1. Top Conor (15-1 morning-line odds)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owner: Flanagan Racing
Career record: 1 start – 1 win – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $42,000
Earnings per start: $42,000
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 79
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Pedigree: Twirling Candy – Divine Dawn, by Divine Park
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: The first of three Blue Grass entrants trained by Chad Brown is ambitiously placed at this Grade 1 level coming off of just one career start. A $ 1 million purchase last year at age 2, Top Conor did not make his first appearance on the racetrack until Feb. 17, when he won a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park. In that race, he stalked the pace while fourth through the first half-mile in an 11-horse field and then took over in midstretch to score by two lengths. Top Conor drifted out, then in, during his rally which certainly is not surprising for a colt in his first outing, and earned a 79 Equibase Speed Figure for his final time of 1:38.22. These credentials make Top Conor a longshot in a renewal of the Blue Grass Stakes where his graded stakes-winning stablemate Sierra Leone is tabbed the morning-line favorite. He’s got a pedigree that suggests one-mile races could be his preference going forward, and obviously he has much potential to be fulfilled in future races, but it would be a surprise to see him make a quantum leap on Saturday and hit the board in the Blue Grass. Top Conor retains the services of top jockey Jose Ortiz in the saddle after Ortiz rode him in his maiden win. Ortiz won the 2018 Blue Grass for Chad Brown on Good Magic, and Brown also won the 2022 edition with Zandon.
2. Be You (8-1)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Repole Stable
Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 1 third
Career earnings: $121,300
Earnings per start: $20,217
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby points: 3
Pedigree: Curlin – Jacaranda, by Congrats
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Owner Mike Repole has at least one Kentucky Derby contender already qualified and primed for the race in Fierceness, dominant winner of last week’s Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. This well-bred colt actually joined Fierceness and a handful of other 2-year-olds as horses to watch during last summer’s Saratoga meet when he finished second in his debut going six furlongs in August and then fourth in the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes in September. In his first race, Be You lost to Just Steel, who’s trained on to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. In the Hopeful, he checked in behind another accomplished colt, runner-up Timberlake, after enduring a rough trip. Be You continued to compete against top-caliber horses in his third start, shipping west and finishing third behind recent Arkansas Derby winner Muth in the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park in October, but then declined in form over the winter, finishing a well-beaten fifth twice in starts at Churchill Downs and Gulfstream Park. On March 3 at Gulfstream, Be You broke through with his first win in career start number six, rallying from a stalking position to win a seven-furlong race by 2 ½ lengths. With time nearly having run out, Be You’s pointed toward one final try at securing a Kentucky Derby spot, and he’ll need to finish first or second in the Blue Grass to do so. He’s bred to run long but has not threatened in his two prior route races, and based on his running style will need a fast early pace to develop in order to have any chance at filling out the exacta. On the positive side, Be You gets Irad Ortiz Jr. back in the saddle after the reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey was aboard for his breakthrough win last month. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher became the all-time leader in wins for this race last year when Tapit Trice gave him a fourth victory as a trainer; his prior ones came with Bandini (2005), Monba (2008), and Carpe Diem (2015).
3. Seize the Grey (20-1)
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: MyRacehorse
Career record: 7 starts – 2 wins – 0 seconds – 3 thirds
Career earnings: $259,138
Earnings per start: $37,020
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 93
Kentucky Derby points: 27
Pedigree: Arrogate – Smart Shopping, by Smart Strike
Color: Gray or roan
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has already secured one spot in the 150th Kentucky Derby barring any training setback with Just Steel, who finished second in last week’s Arkansas Derby. “The Coach” has not had a Derby starter since Bravazo in 2018, and Just Steel could give him his 50th all-time … but why stop at one starter? This colt is wheeling back two weeks after finishing a good third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks for one final try in a Derby points prep. Seize the Grey has improved in his two starts at age 3 after a decent but unspectacular record through five starts last year as a juvenile. He made his sophomore debut Feb. 24 in a 1 1/16-mile, two-turn allowance-optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park and won by a length, and then transferred that form nicely to the all-weather track at Turfway Park where, as noted, he finished third in the Jeff Ruby. He was four lengths behind runaway winner Endlessly (a multiple stakes winner on turf and all-weather) but was part of a four-horse photo for second and was a head behind the runner-up West Saratoga. Seize the Grey will return to a dirt track Saturday, which he probably prefers based on his career record, and although his Equibase Speed Figures have topped out about 10-15 points below what will very likely be needed to win this Grade 1 race, his development so far in 2024 has been encouraging. Taking another step on that path could help this longshot secure second or third – the former would punch his ticket to Louisville, while the latter would put him on the borderline of getting in. Lukas has two prior wins in the Blue Grass on his résumé: War in 1987 and High Yield in 2000.
4. Dornoch (3-1)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Career record: 5 starts – 3 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $505,400
Earnings per start: $101,080
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 102
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Dornoch has kept his status as one of the handful of leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby since December’s Remsen Stakes, and he’ll probably vie for post-time favoritism in the Blue Grass with the horse he defeated by a nose in that race, Sierra Leone. This colt, who is a full brother (same sire [father] and dam [mother]) to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage, is based in Florida but made his first four starts last year at different tracks away from the Sunshine State. In fact, he notched his first career win back in October at Keeneland in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race, which preceded his game stakes victory over Sierra Leone in the Remsen at Aqueduct. After spending the winter at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, Dornoch returned for his 3-year-old bow at nearby Gulfstream Park in the March 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes held at 1 1/16 miles and easily defeated four opponents, winning by 1 ¾ lengths. Instead of staying home for the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farm at Xalapa, Dornoch’s connections chose to send him back to Keeneland and use the Blue Grass as his final prep. That decision looks like the right one based on Fierceness’ dominant win in the Florida Derby, although Dornoch will still face a tough field on Saturday. He did not defeat any highly rated Kentucky Derby prospects in the Fountain of Youth (four horses were scratched, including main opponent Locked), and in fact all four of his vanquished foes failed to make an impression in their subsequent Derby preps. Still, Dornoch has every right to improve in his second start of the season and on a track he’s familiar with. Dornoch also projects to contest the early pace in the Blue Grass, with possible pressure from Epic Ride, Just a Touch, and Good Money, and this colt has already shown he will not back down from a challenge in the stretch. Jockey Luis Saez has ridden Dornoch in his past three races, starting with the win last fall at Keeneland, and he’s won the Blue Grass three times aboard Brody’s Cause (2016), Essential Quality (2021), and Tapit Trice last year.
5. Good Money (20-1)
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owner: Calumet Farm
Career record: 2 starts – 1 win – 0 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $36,060
Earnings per start: $18,030
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 82
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Pedigree: Good Magic – Cascading Cash, by Distorted Humor
Color: Bay
Running style: Press the pace
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Another Chad Brown-trained Blue Grass starter, Good Money is a longshot alongside Top Conor and, like that colt, he’s shown promising talent in his brief career. The son of Brown’s 2018 Blue Grass winner Good Magic made both prior starts at Tampa Bay Downs, winning his debut at seven furlongs by a length on Jan. 26 and then testing deeper waters in the 1 1/16-mile Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby on March 9 and holding his own with a close fourth-place finish. In the Tampa Bay Derby, Good Money was aggressively ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. and dueled for the lead with Sam F. Davis Stakes winner No More Time through the far turn. He did not throw in the towel during the stretch but tired late to end up three-quarters of a length behind Domestic Product, who proved best in a three-horse photo for first. While Good Money’s effort in the Tampa Bay Derby was admirable, fractions and final time for the race were very slow, and he earned a modest 82 Equibase Speed Figure. A repeat of that performance will not cut it in the Blue Grass Stakes, and overall this colt – who comes from the family of Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil – profiles as a contender for minor honors as he continues to mature with hopefully bigger accomplishments ahead. Hall of Famer Javier Castellano takes the mount on Good Money for the first time Saturday; he won the 2019 Blue Grass aboard Vekoma. Calumet Farm is the all-time leading owner for wins in the Blue Grass Stakes with six, and all of those came in the 20th century when the historic operation was owned by the Wright family as opposed to current owner Brad Kelley.
6. Just a Touch (7-2)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owners: Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing, and Marc Detampel
Career record: 2 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $94,200
Earnings per start: $47,100
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby points: 25
Pedigree: Justify – Touching Beauty, by Tapit
Color: Bay
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Sierra Leone and Dornoch are the headliners in Saturday’s 100th Blue Grass Stakes based on their status as graded stakes winners (and their budding rivalry), but this colt is right there with them as a win candidate, and his 7-2 morning-line odds reflect that. Just a Touch turned heads back on Jan. 27 when debuting in a six-furlong sprint at Fair Grounds, routing seven opponents by 4 ¼ lengths while running on a sloppy track. Trainer Brad Cox then shipped him to Aqueduct and stretched him out to a mile (still around one turn) in the Gotham Stakes on March 2, and Just a Touch raced wide throughout after breaking from an outside post position but still managed to run on in the stretch and rally for second, two lengths behind Deterministic. Based on pedigree, this son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify should prefer racing in two-turn routes, and he’ll get that opportunity in the Blue Grass Stakes along with a fast dirt track for the first time based on the projected weather forecast as of April 2. His Equibase Speed Figures are already among the best in this field and he doesn’t need to take a huge leap in development to contend for top honors with regular rider Florent Geroux aboard, and drawing a better post position should also help his chances. Look for Geroux to position Just a Touch within the top two or three runners through the backstretch, and possibly take the initiative even earlier than that and move to the lead if the opportunity arises. Cox won the 2021 Blue Grass with Essential Quality.
7. Lat Long (30-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Owner: Walking L Thoroughbreds
Career record: 6 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 4 thirds
Career earnings: $143,750
Earnings per start: $23,958
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 88
Kentucky Derby points: 6
Pedigree: Liam’s Map – Amen Sista, by Street Cry
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: This Liam’s Map colt has not raced since finishing third in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds and earning six qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. That was his first start at age 3 after an active fall campaign consisting of five starts. Lat Long has not finished worse than third so far, which is good, and he improved at the end of his 2-year-old season when stretching out to two turns by finishing second to subsequent Lecomte winner Track Phantom and then winning his maiden over eventual Rebel Stakes runner-up Common Defense in 1 1/16-mile races at Churchill Downs. But he’s also earned Equibase Speed Figures between 85 and 88 in all of his starts, a plateau that is far below (15-20 points) what will be required to win the Blue Grass Stakes. Since the Lecomte, Lat Long trained at Fair Grounds and then shipped to Churchill Downs for one final workout on March 31, a four-furlong drill in :46.40 that was fastest of 41 horses that day at the distance. Even if he’s fit and ready to improve in his second start of the year, the Blue Grass is a very tough assignment, and based on the evidence at hand a minor award is his ceiling. His connections certainly demand respect, as trainer Ken McPeek has two Blue Grass wins to his credit with Harlan’s Holiday in 2002 and Java’s War in 2013; jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. won this race aboard Art Collector in 2020.
8. Epic Ride (20-1)
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Trainer: John Ennis
Owner: Welch Racing
Career record: 4 starts – 2 wins – 2 seconds – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $159,416
Earnings per start: $39,854
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Pedigree: Blame – Pick a Time, by Gio Ponti
Color: Bay
Running style: Pacesetter/press the pace
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Epic Ride will be making his first start on a dirt track in the Blue Grass Stakes after competing on Turfway Park’s all-weather Tapeta Footings track in his first four races. He finished second by a neck in a six-furlong sprint last December and then turned heads as one of the most promising 3-year-olds stabled at Turfway during January and February with back-to-back open-length wins in another six-furlong maiden and then the one-mile, two-turn Leonatus Stakes. Based on those efforts, Epic Ride was favored at 1.16-1 odds in the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial Stakes March 3 at Turfway, and after stalking the pace he took the lead at the top of the stretch only to be overtaken by Encino rallying to his outside. The Blame colt did not quit, however, and ended up second by a length, and he has since moved south from Turfway for workouts on dirt at Keeneland and the nearby Thoroughbred Training Center. Epic Ride is bred for stamina with stakes-winning relatives in route races both on dirt and turf, but he’ll need to handle the switch to dirt along with a substantially higher level of competition in order to have a shot at pulling the upset Saturday.
9. Mugatu (30-1)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Trainer: Jeff Engler
Owners: Average Joe Racing Stables and Dan Wells
Career record: 11 starts – 1 win – 1 second – 3 thirds
Career earnings: $56,663
Earnings per start: $5,151
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 92
Kentucky Derby points: 4
Pedigree: Blofeld – Union Way, by Union Rags
Color: Chestnut
Running style: Closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Mugatu has a good chance to carry the highest post-time odds in the Blue Grass Stakes coming into the Grade 1 test with a record of one win in 11 starts. He’s made nine of those on either turf or all-weather surfaces, including a late-running fourth in the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Memorial Stakes March 2 on Turfway Park’s Tapeta Footings track that netted him four Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Mugatu finished well back of Battaglia winner Encino and runner-up Epic Ride at odds of 68.36-1, and followed the Battaglia up with an eighth-place finish in the March 23 Rushaway Stakes, also held at 1 1/16 miles on Turfway’s all-weather track. He did post the two highest Equibase Speed Figures of his career in the abovementioned Turfway stakes – 88 in the Battaglia, and 92 in the Rushaway – which are still distant from the 105-110 range that most Blue Grass winners earn. In his two dirt starts, both last year, Mugatu has finished a combined 26 lengths out of first. Add these credentials up, and even finishing fifth on Saturday and adding 10 more Derby points to his ledger seems far-fetched.
10. Sierra Leone (2-1)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Chad Brown
Owners: Peter Brant, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, and Brook Smith
Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $336,750
Earnings per start: $112,250
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 99
Kentucky Derby points: 55
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Closer
Notable achievements and interesting facts: Through only three starts, Sierra Leone has lived up to high expectations dating back to his 2022 purchase for $2.3 million as a yearling at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale of selected yearlings. The well-bred Gun Runner colt won his debut racing a mile last November, and then in his next start showed inexperience after taking the lead from Dornoch in midstretch of the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes, easing up just enough in the final strides to let that opponent re-rally and prevail by a nose. Sierra Leone returned for his 3-year-old debut in a stacked renewal of the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes Feb. 17 at Fair Grounds, and had to fan 10-wide at the top of the stretch for a closing rally. Impressively, he made a sustained charge in the middle of a muddy track through Fair Grounds’ long stretch and defeated pacesetter Track Phantom, who entered the Risen Star off of two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, by a half-length. The Risen Star has proved a productive Derby prep, as third-place finisher Catching Freedom and fifth-place Honor Marie both improved next out in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby to finish first and second, respectively. When assessing the pace scenario for the Blue Grass, this field has a mixture of horses that are capable of being forwardly placed but it lacks a full-out speedball. Therefore, it’s within the realm of possibility that the overall pace Saturday could be modest, which will hurt Sierra Leone’s win chances as a closer. He’s far from a lock as the morning-line favorite, but based on his current form it would be surprising to see this runner finish worse than fourth Saturday … and with 55 Kentucky Derby points already earned, finishing fifth and adding 10 points should be good enough to secure a spot in the May 4 starting gate. If he wins the Blue Grass, on the other hand, Sierra Leone probably will head into Kentucky Derby week as the second betting favorite behind Fierceness.
11. Encino (12-1)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Brad Cox
Owner: Godolphin
Career record: 3 starts – 2 wins – 1 second – 0 thirds
Career earnings: $142,715
Earnings per start: $47,572
Top Equibase Speed Figure: 100
Kentucky Derby points: 20
Pedigree: Nyquist – Glittering Jewel, by Bernardini
Color: Dark bay or brown
Running style: Press the pace/stalker
Notable achievements and interesting facts: This Godolphin homebred faces the new surface question in Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes, and if he answers in the affirmative he could become one of the leading “wise-guy” horses for Kentucky Derby 150. He’s made all three career starts on the all-weather Tapeta Footings surface at Turfway Park and is a neck shy of being undefeated. Encino’s loss came in his debut Dec. 29 when he broke slowly and closed with a rush in a one-mile maiden race only to come up just short. He returned in a 1 1/16-mile maiden Jan. 26 with a change in running style and won by a half-length after setting the pace, and then reverted back to a stalking position in his stakes debut and impressively won the 1 1/16-mile John Battaglia Stakes March 2 at Turfway by a length over fellow Turfway standout Epic Ride. Encino earned 20 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby in the Battaglia, so he’ll need to finish first or second in the Blue Grass in order for his connections to feel secure about earning a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. He’s certainly bred to handle dirt as his dam is a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Encino has made two posted workouts on Keeneland’s dirt track since the Battaglia to gain experience on the new footing and joins stablemate Just a Touch as two live contenders for trainer Brad Cox to upset Dornoch and Sierra Leone in a well-matched race. Cox and Godolphin won the 2021 Blue Grass with Essential Quality. Flavien Prat rode 2022 Blue Grass winner Zandon.