The $500,000 Virginia Derby finds a new home on the calendar and a new surface. Since 1998, the Virginia Derby has been run in July or even later in the year and on turf, but this year the race will be run on dirt and finds itself part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifying series Saturday at Colonial Downs.
Due to those changes it’s no wonder that 10 aspiring 3-year-olds were entered in the race, led by Sunland Park Derby winner Getaway Car, shipping in from California for Bob Baffert. John Hancock enters the race following a similar victory, having won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last month. Studlydoright is the only other horse in the field possessing a stakes win, with two coming in the Nashua Stakes in November and last June in the Tremont Stakes. Rapture, trained by Brad Cox, who also conditions John Hancock, comes into the race following a very strong win by 6 ½ lengths and could be this good. Similarly, Authentic Gallop won his most recent race in a gutsy effort for his second victory in his last three races. Omaha Omaha finished second in the Jerome Stakes in January before a third-place finish in the Withers Stakes in February. Render Judgment finished third in the Gun Runner Stakes before an eighth-place effort in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes. American Promise won in December but has finished seventh and fifth since then. Calling Card earned his first and only win in November and has finished third, eighth, and seventh in in his last three starts. Georgia Magic won his debut in November but finished sixth and fourth since then.
Top Win Contenders:
Based on Rapture’s pedigree — a son of Uncle Mo out of a Bernardini mare — trainer Brad Cox most likely believed that he would be better suited to racing at a mile or longer, so he entered him in a one-turn mile race for his career debut in December. Rapture finished second of nine in that race, then when stretched out another sixteenth of a mile and to two turns for his second career start on Jan. 25, Rapture improved markedly, drawing off by 6 ½ lengths in a field of 12. He improved from a 78 Equibase Speed Figure in his debut to a 98 figure, which is nearly stakes quality at this time of year. Flavien Prat, who had a career-best year in 2024, rode Rapture to victory and rides back here, choosing this horse whose last win was in a maiden race over John Hancock, who Prat rode to victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes five weeks ago.
In both starts, Rapture has shown maturity in closing from behind, whereas John Hancock, who earned a 97 speed figure in the Sam F. Davis, has won both his starts when leading from start to finish. The ability to stalk and pounce is the running style most likely to be successful in the Virginia Derby, because Getaway Car won the Sunland Park Derby (earning a 100 speed figure) leading from start to finish. With the addition of Georgia Magic to the field, who is stretching out from six furlongs and who earned his only win leading from start to finish, there is a high probability of a faster than average early pace, allowing Prat to put Rapture in a great spot around third or fourth early before kicking on to win the race and establish himself as a contender as we move closer and closer to the first Saturday in May.
Authentic Gallop had won one of three dirt route races and also had raced on turf twice, prior to his last start four weeks ago at Oaklawn Park. Removing his blinkers, which had been worn for all of his races since his second start last summer, Authentic Gallop ran the best race of his life, by far, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure, which is within range of the 97 to 100 figures earned by John Hancock, Rapture, and Getaway Car in their most recent races. However, like Rapture, and not like John Hancock or Getaway Car, Authentic Gallop does not need the early lead to win, having rallied from fourth with an eighth of a mile to run in his win last month. Jockey Javier Castellano rides for the first time, but that is of no concern considering Castellano rode Mage to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby after taking over for another rider and rode Arcangelo to four straight wins in 2023, including the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes, having taken over for another jockey for the first of those wins.
There is no doubt John Hancock and Getaway Car have run fast enough to win this race but it appears they will battle for the lead from the start, perhaps at any cost, and be joined by Georgia Magic. If both John Handcock and Getaway Car run in the race, I can’t endorse either of them to win. John Hancock earned a 96 speed figure winning in his debut in January then 97 winning the Sam F. Davis, while Getaway Car earned a 100 figure in December when second in the Los Alamitos Futurity then 100 in the Sunland Park Derby last month following a two-month layoff. It just doesn’t appear to me, based on their previous starts, that either has learned to rate off the pace, even in second, particularly Getaway Car, who ran second from start to finish in the American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse last October behind Citizen Bull, another Baffert trainee.
American Promise is an interesting horse who could make noise at high odds. He’s won just one of eight races, but that one, on Dec. 29, earned a 102 speed figure, good enough to win this race if Rapture doesn’t improve a little and if Authentic Gallop doesn’t improve a bit more than a little. American Promise led from start to finish in that race at 1 1/16 miles and had shown some ability to race off the pace previously. However, he had a very poor start in the Southwest Stakes in January when the plan was to lead from the start, then rushed up before tiring. In the Risen Star Stakes last month, he started fifth of 12, moved up to third, then retreated to fifth. Getting his third different jockey in his last three races, this time Nik Juarez, I’m not sure what tactics might be used, but considering he is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and is out of the mare who produced Hoosier Philly, American Promise may warrant a couple of dollars to win so we don’t kick ourselves after the fact.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure in a route race): Calling Card (90), Georgia Magic (81), Omaha Omaha (86), Render Judgment (90) and Studlydoright (89).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Rapture
Authentic Gallop
Note: John Hancock or Getaway Car may be considered contenders if one of the two withdraws, leaving the other with a chance to lead from start to finish.
