BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a review of leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 3.

King’s latest list reflects the results of three qualifying points preps held last weekend and looks ahead to the March 8 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby.

Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to keep up to date with stories and statistics on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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1. Sovereignty

Racing for the first time since winning the Oct. 27 Street Sense Stakes and being a late runner competing over a short stretch going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park, he faced some obstacles in the March 1 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes. He cleared them, rallying past the opposition with a final sixteenth in :06.30. His final time of 1:43.12 was sharp, validating his season-long presence atop the Derby Dozen.

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2. Journalism

Sovereignty’s Derby Dozen lead is narrow, with this West Coast 3-year-old hot on his heels. They are similar as dual graded stakes winners around two turns with further upside over longer distances. He ran quickly in winning Saturday’s DK Horse San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park, covering 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.24 with a closing split in :06.11. Weight-conscious handicappers should take note he carried 124 pounds, four pounds more than Barnes and the other starters.

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3. Citizen Bull 

Though trainer Bob Baffert chose to have him sit out the San Felipe, that is not cause for worry with the reigning 2-year-old champion male and 2024 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner. As reflected by a five-furlong breeze at Santa Anita Park in 1:00.60 this past Saturday morning, he has not missed a beat with his training. Only two Juvenile winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby – those being Street Sense (2006-07) and Nyquist (2015-16).

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4. Chancer McPatrick  

Last year, Chancer McPatrick won the Hopeful Stakes and Champagne Stakes before disappointing when sixth in the BC Juvenile. Though Champagne runners have won the Derby 23 times, since the turn of the century, only Super Saver won the 2010 Derby after competing in the Champagne. As for the Hopeful Stakes, I’ll Have Another is the lone Hopeful starter to win the Derby this century, doing so in 2012. So the two-turn, 1 1/16-mile Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby March 8 should provide some indication of whether Chancer McPatrick is as skilled around two turns as one.

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5. Barnes

After the talented Barnes set soft initial fractions in the San Felipe of :23.71 and :47.31, jockey Juan Hernandez tried to blow the race open by asking his mount to distance himself from the pack. Barnes accelerated as asked, opening up on all those chasing him on the second turn, but he grew a bit fatigued in the stretch to settle for second behind Journalism, beaten 1 ¾ lengths in his first route. He ran a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 107 in defeat, but his fade – coupled with his powerfully built physical make-up – raises doubts about his staying power.

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6. Coal Battle

He does not have the massive stride of the two Derby Dozen leaders, but he is nimble and can quicken. That was apparent in the Feb. 23 Rebel Stakes when he accelerated from fifth to go after leader Madaket Road and got the jump on the rest of the field. Then he wore that rival down, and the stretch rallies from closers came too late. The March 29 Arkansas Derby is likely next, though trainer Lonnie Briley is keeping his options open.

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7. Burnham Square 

The Holy Bull Stakes winner came under pressure from jockey Edgard Zayas in the Fountain of Youth to try to stick with Sovereignty’s rally on the turn. Burnham Square could not, but he kept grinding away, crossing the wire in fourth, beaten three lengths. “He’s just still learning. It looked like in the turn he was going nowhere. But all of a sudden when I got him back to the outside, he really picked it up again,” Zayas said.

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8. Sandman

Though he broke much better in the Rebel than the Southwest Stakes, he was farther off the pace than trainer Mark Casse had hoped he would be. Sandman trailed by 13 lengths over the first half-mile of the Rebel and kicked into gear with a belated rally to finish third, beaten 1 ¾ lengths. Casse believes Sandman, a $1.2 million purchase as a juvenile, will appreciate racing an extra sixteenth of a mile in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby.

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9. River Thames

Some of the leading progeny of Maclean’s Music, such as Jackie’s Warrior, Drain the Clock, and Complexity, were highly effective sprinters and milers. But let’s not forget that one of Maclean’s Music’s sons, Cloud Computing, won the 2017 Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles. The naturally quick River Thames gives the impression of being able to route. Though he was caught in the Fountain of Youth by Sovereignty, he lost a little focus nearing the wire, flicking an ear forward before reacting too late to that rival’s surge.

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10. Built

Though this stakes-winning, graded-placed colt was beaten almost 10 lengths when third in the Feb. 15 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, it was a solid effort. He made a second-turn bid to go after victorious Magnitude (now sidelined), and when that one turned him aside, Built might have grown discouraged. Regardless, the Risen Star was contested in blazing time. A follow-up work Feb. 27 in New Orleans suggests he is on track for the March 22 Louisiana Derby.

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11. Hill Road

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race flow favored speed horses. Citizen Bull and Gaming ran 1-2 around the track, and fourth-place Getaway Car was also close throughout. Longshot Hill Road was the only horse to make up meaningful ground, rallying from last to grab third in his United States debut after two prior starts on turf in Ireland. Now training in Florida, he is likely to be entered in the Tampa Bay Derby, new trainer Chad Brown told Daily Racing Form, though Brown acknowledged the colt might be a couple works short of desired fitness.

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12. Flood Zone

Making his first start for trainer Brad Cox in the March 1 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct following a private purchase, he adeptly stretched out from 6 ½ furlongs to a mile to defeat the speedy New York-bred Sand Devil by 3 ¼ lengths. He is obviously talented, though the Gotham was a one-turn race, and the Derby is just two months away. If Flood Zone, who is bred for more distance, competes in one of the final Derby preps at 1 1/8 miles, he would have just a single two-turn race before the Kentucky Derby.