The Grade 3, $265,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park is the first of two prep races leading to the Curlin Florida Derby in April and offers what could be important points to the top five finishers on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.
Unlike last year’s Holy Bull, when FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner Fierceness made his 3-year-old debut, none of these entrants has wins in stakes races around two turns on dirt to date. However, He’s Not Joking won the Grade 3 bet365 Grey Stakes at this 1 1/16-mile distance on an all-weather surface last November, while Guns Loaded won the one-turn Mucho Macho Man Stakes on the Gulfstream main track last month. Ferocious finished second in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at this distance on dirt before a fifth-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and appears to fit with this group as well. Three others — Burnham Square, Burning Glory, Kinetic Control — enter the race off maiden wins at a mile or longer and Tappan Street won a seven-furlong maiden race on this main track Dec. 28. All four have the potential to improve markedly making their first starts as 3-year-olds.
Analysis and top win contenders:
I’ll start with Burning Glory, owing to a very strong pedigree as well as Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott’s unique ability to determine when a young horse in his care can successfully make the leap in class from maiden races to stakes races as a 3-year-old. Many racing fans are already aware of Mott’s prowess with these types of horses, but if not, some prime examples are Hofburg (second in the 2018 Florida Derby), Modernist (winner of the 2020 Risen Star Stakes), and Candyman Rocket (winner of the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes), all following maiden victories. Overall, per a Race Lens query, Mott has a very strong record of eight wins in 37 races during the past five years with 3-year-olds in dirt route stakes following a maiden win. On the pedigree side, Burning Glory was produced by stakes-placed Hail (by Tapit), who is a half-sister to champion Close Hatches ($2.7 million) and Lockdown ($445,900), both of whom had solid 3-year-old campaigns. As to Burning Glory himself, he improved to a career-best 93 Equibase Speed Figure in winning in his third career start when last seen in December, and Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for the first time in that race, returns to ride back. Considering Burning Glory improved his speed figure by 10 points from his previous start and considering that 93 figure is the second best last-race figure in the field behind the 95 earned by Ferocious when fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, this colt could take a big step forward and into the early list of top contenders on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Tappan Street won at first asking on Dec. 28 at Gulfstream, but at seven furlongs. Just the same, there is little doubt he can run as well or better off the experience of a race and at this longer distance as he is a son of Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare. That mare, Grade 2-placed Virginia Key, is a half-sister to Pyrenees ($786,316) and Grace Adler ($258,800) and her only other foal to race is a multiple winner around two turns (on turf). The race Tappan Street won has turned out to be a “Key Race” from which only three horses have run back, two winning their next starts. In that debut win, which earned an excellent 91 figure, Tappan Street showed a lot of maturity when relaxing in third position for the first half-mile before rallying by the front-runner to win going away. As such, this colt could be well on his way to making his mark on the Derby trail.
Ferocious won his debut in easy fashion by 7 ¾ lengths last summer so it was no surprise when he was sent to post as the heavy favorite in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last September. Although second to Chancer McPatrick, Ferocious wasn’t disgraced as he was finishing fast and missed by a half-length at the end, earning a 91 Equibase Speed Figure. He followed with the same figure when second in the Breeders’ Futurity last October, repeating that 91 figure effort. Fairly well regarded by bettors in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, Ferocious had traffic trouble twice during the race but showed some excellent late interest, moving up from 10th to fifth in the last eighth of a mile and earning a career best 95 speed figure. Now very likely more mature as a 3-year-old, Ferocious has a shot to run even better in this situation.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Burnham Square (92), Guns Loaded (100), He’s Not Joking (95) and Kinetic Control (85)
Win Contenders:
Burning Glory
Tappan Street
Ferocious
Superfecta
7-3-6-2
7-3-6-2
$25
Superfecta
7-3-6-2
7-3-6-2
$25
