Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Saturday, Jan. 4

The first Saturday of the year really gets things started in 2025 with newly turned 3-year-olds hoping to take first steps on the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The action will take place at two different racetracks, with Aqueduct hosting the Jerome Stakes and Oaklawn Park kicking off its lucrative 3-year-old road to the Derby series with the Smarty Jones Stakes on Saturday. For this weekend’s blog, let’s delve into these two stakes races and try to pick some of our first winners of the new year. Best of luck.

Aqueduct, Race 8, $150,000 Jerome Stakes, 3:39 p.m. ET

A field of eight 3-year-olds are set to go to post for the Jerome Stakes going one mile around one turn at Aqueduct. The most accomplished horse in the race and also the second choice on the morning line is #7 Studlydoright, who already owns three wins from his 2-year-old campaign including two stakes win. Studlydoright exits a fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in a race at 1 1/8 miles around two turns but now cuts back to a mile which is the distance of his career-best outing two races ago when he won the $145,000 Nashua Stakes right here at Aqueduct. The one thing potentially standing in the way of a Studlydoright win in his race would be a rival getting clear on the front end and wiring the field, and the horse with the ability to do that looms as #6 Cyclone State, who enters the Jermone off back-to-back impressive front-running wins at Aqueduct going a mile. This race represents a class hike for Cyclone State up against stakes competition for the first time, but this speed figures during his recent winning streak suggest he belongs versus this field. Studlydoright and the rest of this field will be hoping that another horse in the race runs with Cyclone State early, and candidates to do that include #2 Mansetti and, #5 Georgia Magic. Of that duo, the higher potential to make a dent in this race goes to Mansetti, an x-factor who has yet to ever race on dirt but now stretches out off a speedy sprint stakes win on Woodbine’s all-weather surface and could make waves if he can improve on this surface.

The Play: Bet on #7 Studlydoright (5-2) to win and play him in an exacta box with #6 Cyclone State (7-2). For trifecta boxes, add #2 Mansetti (10-1) onto your tickets along with the those two.

Oaklawn Park, Race 9, $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, 5:22 p.m. ET

Coal Battle winning Springboard Mile (Dustin Orona Photography/Remington Park)

The Smarty Jones Stakes has drawn a field of eight sophomores set to race 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn Park for a purse of $250,000. The race features several horses with a lot of potential, but the most accomplished of the group as of today is #8 Coal Battle and he is the horse to beat. Coal Battle is undefeated in three career races on the dirt and has gone 2-for-2 in stakes races since switching from turf to dirt with wins in the $100,000 Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs  followed by the $300,000 Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park. He’ll be coming from off the pace and should get a sufficient set-up for his late run at this added distance. The rest of the top contenders in this field all appear to have some speed including #1 Kale’s Angel, #5 Mo Quality, and #6 Hot Property. The latter took advantage of a lazy pace last time to go wire-to-wire in his career debut. Of that trio, Kale’s Angel seems to have the most upside coming out of a stakes win with a big speed figure at this track last time out. Evidently the connections thought Kale’s Angel was strictly a turf horse based on his four straight turf races to begin his career, however, he unleashed a career-best effort in his dirt debut winning the 5 ½-furlong Advent Stakes here a month ago over Innovator, a horse that his since won but is most well-known for finishing within a head of Bob Baffert’s highly-touted maiden winner Barnes at Churchill Downs. Finally, if you are looking to spice up your exotics with a sneaky contender at a price, try including #3 Optical in your exotics. Optical suffered a mishap in Keeneland’s Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity three races ago but has been good in all of his other three dirt routes so far, including a Churchill Downs allowance win last time over McAfee, who will race as one of the favorites in today’s Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct.

The Play: Bet #9 Coal Battle (9-2) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #1 Kale’s Angel (2-1) and #3 Optical (12-1).