Now that horse racing’s unofficial “second season” has wrapped up with the conclusion of the 41^st Breeders’ Cup World Championships, it’s time for sprouts of the “first season” to bloom in a sport that has no letup. That first season would be, of course, following prospects for the 2025 Triple Crown races over winter and early spring, starting with those vying for a spot in the most prestigious of the series – the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.

Several qualifying points races on Churchill Downs’ official Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule have already been held over the past two-plus months, and other talented 2-year-olds have emerged in the Derby discussion after winning or running well in maiden and allowance races around the country.

Forecasting the field — and even taking a stand on a potential winner backed by a future wager — is an annual highlight of Kentucky Derby season. Those fans and bettors with an eye on identifying and supporting precocious 2-year-olds have two ways to make future wagers on the 151^st Derby, which will be held at historic Churchill Downs on May 3, 2025. 

This season, fixed odds bets on prospects for the big race are offered by the bookmakers at Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas … but the catch is, they’re offered only in Nevada. Caesars, like many other bookmakers, has expanded its reach out into several other states after sports gambling has become legal, including Kentucky where it has partnered with Keeneland Race Course and the Red Mile harness track in Lexington. However, only Caesars’ Nevada book is offering fixed-odds future wagers on the Kentucky Derby. And as of this writing, fixed-odds bets on the Derby are not offered on other platforms with horse racing such as FanDuel and DraftKings that have launched in the Bluegrass state and elsewhere.

For the truly committed horseplayer, what happens in Vegas doesn’t have to stay in Vegas – bets at Caesars can be made during visits and/or by surrogates and then cashed in person or by mail after May 3 – but the geo-restriction does sharply curtail what could be, or rather should be, a robust fixed-odds betting market on the Kentucky Derby. 

The other option to bet on Derby prospects comes via Churchill Downs’ series of parimutuel pools. Churchill offered the first of six pools during the 2024-’25 road to the Derby from Oct. 30-Nov. 1, prior to the running of the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA. The second pool kicks off Thursday, Nov. 28, and ends on Sunday, Dec. 1, spanning the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. One qualifying points race for Derby 151 will be held while the parimutuel pool is open: the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill on Saturday, Nov. 30.

Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (Nov. 24)

1. Citizen Bull (8-1)

2. Rated by Merit (14-1)

3. East Avenue (15-1)

4. Chancer McPatrick (18-1)

4. Gaming (18-1)

Individual Favorites in Churchill Downs’ Second Kentucky Derby Pool (opening Nov. 27)

1. Chancer McPatrick (10-1)

1. East Avenue (10-1)

2. Citizen Bull (20-1)

2. Jonathan’s Way (20-1)

2. Sovereignty (20-1)

All Other Colts and Geldings Listed at 4-5

Some Insights:

The “Baffert Effect” is back in full force early during Derby futures season. Back in 2021, Bob Baffert briefly enjoyed earning the status of the all-time winningest trainer in the Kentucky Derby after Medina Spirit wired the field. The victory, which pushed Baffert to seven wins and one ahead of mid-20^th century trainer Ben Jones, was short-lived as Churchill Downs disqualified Medina Spirit for a medication violation once mandatory test results for all Derby contenders came in. That set off a prolonged set of legal challenges filed by attorneys for the embattled Hall of Fame trainer and Medina Spirit’s owner Amr Zedan, and Churchill Downs Inc. suspended Baffert from competing at its tracks and in the Derby for what turned out to be three years. A settlement was reached in July 2024, Churchill lifted its ban, and now Baffert looks set to invade Louisville for Derby 151 with a barn full of high-quality prospects.

Citizen Bull (Eclipse Sportswire)

Citizen Bull is getting the most attention right now and justifiably so after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 15.90-1. He’s certainly flashed impressive cruising speed in both of his Grade 1 wins, the American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse followed by the Juvenile, and the Into Mischief colt’s pedigree is solid for stretching out in future races. Still, he’s a huge underlay right now on Caesars’ book at 8-1 odds, and his 20-1 odds opening Churchill’s second parimutuel pool aren’t very appealing either.

Other Baffert-trained contenders getting early support are Gaming and Getaway Car, second and fourth, respectively, behind Citizen Bull in the Juvenile. Gaming is pegged at 18-1 by Caesars and listed at 25-1 in Churchill’s second pool, while Getaway Car is a 20-1 shot at Caesars and has 50-1 opening odds from Churchill. I think the latter might have plateaued already and be suited to races at about seven furlongs or a mile down the road, despite being by Curlin.

More intriguing are a handful of prospects from Baffert’s loaded stable that are just getting on the radar. Emerald Bay (55-1 Caesars, not offered by Churchill) disappointed when fourth in the American Pharoah Stakes but has been training well since then at Baffert’s Santa Anita Park base and has stamina-rich bloodline as a son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and out of 2017 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes winner Romantic Vision, by Lemon Drop Kid. Baffert’s 1-2 finishers of a 6 ½-furlong maiden special weight race last weekend at Del Mar, Romanesque and Rodriguez, both deserve mention. Romanesque is in Churchill’s second Derby pool starting at 40-1 odds, but I think Rodriguez might have more potential although he was defeated by 2 ¼ lengths. He’s by freshman stallion Authentic, who won both the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic for Baffert during the COVID-affected 2020 season. Neither colt is listed in Caesars’ latest book, which came out a day after they raced.

Another Baffert runner is set to debut this week – not in California, but as the first horse to set hooves back at Churchill Downs for the trainer in 3 ½ years. Barnes, named after Baffert’s longtime assistant Jimmy, is slated to make his first start Nov. 27 in a 5 ½-furlong sprint where he’s the 6-5 morning-line favorite. This Into Mischief colt is owned by Amr Zedan, who purchased him for $3.2 million as a yearling, and is out of a mare by Baffert’s 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Barnes is opening at 25-1 odds in Churchill’s pari-mutuel pool, and he’ll be either several ticks lower or many rungs higher when the pool closes Dec. 1 depending on what we see under the Twin Spires Wednesday.

Update: Barnes won his debut by a head with Baffert in attendance at Churchill. The colt showed early speed but was outrun by Innovator, a D. Wayne Lukas trainee making his fifth start and first since finishing fifth in the Hopeful Stakes in September. Barnes angled out and took aim on Innovator in early stretch and he prevailed despite wavering into the middle of the track and refusing to change leads.

Bullard (BENOIT photo)

Baffert’s arsenal aside, there are many other intriguing contenders offered by Caesars, in Churchill’s holiday weekend pool, or both. Michael McCarthy trains two of them in Bullard (22-1 Caesars, 30-1 Churchill) and Journalism (45-1 Caesars, 99-1 Churchill). Unlike the profession for which he’s named, Journalism’s fortunes are on the rise after taking a one-mile Del Mar maiden by an eye-catching 2 ½ lengths on Nov. 17, his second career start and first race around two turns. This bay colt is another son of Curlin and his dam is Grade 2-winning router Mopotism, by Uncle Mo. As for Bullard, 22-1 is too low of a price right now at Caesars, but there’s a chance his odds in Churchill’s pool might rise over the weekend. He’s 2-for-2 and has shown a nice turn of foot coming from off the pace in both wins, most recently taking the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar by 4 ¾ lengths. The Gun Runner colt has an interesting female pedigree that connects him to speed via his half-sister Mundaye Call – a stakes winner and track record setter for seven furlongs at Ellis Park – and also stamina through his second dam (maternal grandmother), who is a sibling to blue hen broodmare Better Than Honour, the producer of two Belmont Stakes winners.

Finally, here are two value plays to consider and a colt to keep tabs on. If you can get past the memory of one of Robin Williams’ corniest movies, Patch Adams offers value from Caesars at 100-1 odds and is worth considering at 50-1 opening odds from Churchill, too. The Brad Cox trainee had a large bandwagon backing him in his debut Oct. 11 at Keeneland, where he was sent off at 0.83-1 odds against 11 opponents. He set a pressured pace early in a six-furlong maiden special weight race, clipping off solid early fractions for his debut, before tiring in the stretch while still competing to finish third behind two longshot first-timers (the winner, David of Athens, is listed at 66-1 by Caesars). This Into Mischief colt should be better running around two turns – he’s out of a Distorted Humor mare who won a stakes race at 1 1/16 miles, and he’s closely related to Dubai World Cup winner Well Armed, who earned more than $5 million for Patch Adams’ breeder and co-owner WinStar Farm.

Sandman (Eclipse Sportswire)

Another colt who should improve with maturity and distance in his races is Sandman, offered at 40-1 by Caesars and listed at 90-1 odds in Churchill’s pool. He’s a son of Tapit out of a Distorted Humor mare who also produced stakes-winning miler She Can’t Sing, and he’s got additional stamina deeper in his pedigree. Sandman, who is trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse and partially owned by social media influencer Griffin Johnson via America’s Best Racing’s “A Stake in Stardom” initiative, won his second start going seven furlongs at Saratoga Race Course and then ran fifth and third, respectively, in the Iroquois Stakes and Street Sense Stakes at Churchill. The gray or roan colt was making up ground late in both races while no threat to win and those efforts – the second coming in his two-turn debut – should provide valuable experience for his next start, which might come at Gulfstream Park or Oaklawn Park this winter.

A colt who is not offered by either Caesars or in Churchill’s Derby pool #2 but very well could be in the weeks ahead is Sea Vista, who has finished second in both of his career starts for owner-breeder Godolphin and trainer Brad Cox. The first came Aug. 3 in a six-furlong sprint at Saratoga on a muddy track, but it’s his return last weekend at Churchill that got my attention. Coming off the 3 ¾-month layoff, Sea Vista had a rough start in a 6 ½-furlong sprint, getting bumped and then having to steady behind horses eight lengths off of the early pace. He got into gear on the turn and made a sustained rally to finish second, 1 ½ lengths behind winner Mo Quality (99-1 at Churchill) but 2 ¼ lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

Sea Vista is by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and out of multiple graded stakes-winning miler Sara Louise, by Malibu Moon. His half-brother Nash hit the board in a pair of Derby preps at Fair Grounds last winter, but that Godolphin homebred did not develop into a classic-distance horse. After an encouraging return, Sea Vista has the potential to bring these blue-blood connections back to the Derby trail for 2025.