My colleague at America’s Best Racing, Mike Curry, has long regarded 2-year-old filly races as some of the most difficult to handicap, even after these youngsters get a race or two under their belts. His reasoning is sound – more so than colts at this stage, freshman fillies seem to take unpredictable leaps in maturity from start to start, and it’s often difficult to pinpoint which ones will flip the switch when faced with trying something new such as racing around two turns for the first time.
That makes this year’s NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Nov. 1 at Del Mar an especially intriguing puzzle. There’s no Songbird or Echo Zulu this year, no absolute standout entered in the race. It’s wide open.
Of the nine fillies entered, only three have raced at 1 1/16 miles around two turns before – the 1-2 finishers in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland (#3 Immersive and #5 Quickick) and the runner-up in the Oak Leaf Stakes Presented by Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park (Nooni; race winner #7 Non Compliant was withdrawn Tuesday, Oct. 29). The other six all have raced at distances of one mile or less, including two Japan-based fillies who’ll be making their first starts in North America, #6 Otomena Shacho and #9 American Bikini. In terms of running styles, the NetJets Juvenile Fillies field is mainly comprised of press the pace/stalker types, with two fillies – Nooni and American Bikini – that prefer to be on the early lead.
The slight morning-line favorite is #10 Scottish Lassie, who blew away the field in the one-turn mile Frizette Stakes at Belmont at the Big A in early October racing a one-turn mile and appeared to have plenty left in the tank. Frizette runner-up #2 Snowyte also is in the Juvenile Fillies, and the field is rounded out by #1 Vodka With a Twist, last seen giving up the lead late in the FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante Stakes in early September, and #4 La Cara, who rallied in the stretch to win the Sept. 14 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs over 13 opponents.
Among the U.S.-based horses, Scottish Lassie is easily the most visually impressive contender based on her Frizette victory, which indeed was one of those “leaps” discussed above from her first race, a seven-furlong sprint on Sept. 1 at Saratoga where she finished third behind Quickick and Snowyte. Even if she plateaus in the Juvenile Fillies, that should be good enough to ensure a top-three finish.
Quickick could be the filly who’s ready to take a similar move forward, and that’s what I’ll be betting on. The daughter of McKinzie generated buzz when shipped from New York after her Saratoga win to start in the Alcibiades, and in that race she made a threatening move from near the back of the pack to reach contention at the top of the stretch and take aim on Immersive. Quickick kept trying but could not change leads during the stretch run and ended up 1 ¼ lengths back in second. She’s since posted a strong four-furlong workout for Tom Amoss at Churchill Downs and her 10-1 morning-line odds offer great value (here’s hoping they stay in that range). I’ll be betting Quickick to win and keying this filly first in exacta and trifecta bets, with the hope that I won’t have to shout “Change leads!” again during her stretch run at Del Mar.
In addition to Scottish Lassie, the other fillies I’ll use in my exacta and trifecta bets are Immersive, La Cara, and American Bikini. Immersive is 3-for-3 with two stakes wins, including the Alcibiades, but I’ll take a stand here and gamble she might be ready to level off. La Cara would be my second choice as a win candidate in the Juvenile Fillies as I was impressed by her Pocahontas victory against a full field. Her Equibase Speed Figure declined in the one-turn-mile Pocahontas from the number earned in a breakout win going seven furlongs at Saratoga one start earlier, but she was game in the stretch and sustained her rally well through the finish line. In this filly’s case, I think she may be a late bloomer and will relish racing two turns.
American Bikini is the wild card in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She finished second in her debut but then won back-to-back races sprinting on dirt in Japan by open lengths and with solid final times (easily defeating Otomena Shacho in the first of those). International star jockey Ryan Moore takes the reins and should send this filly straight out of the gate and to the front. I am not sure if she can hold on for a gate-to-wire win, but as a daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah she should have the stamina to remain in contention late.
My betting strategy on a $20 budget is as follows:
$10 win on Quickick
Del Mar, Race 7, $10 win on #5
$1 exacta, Quickick with Immersive, La Cara, American Bikini, and Scottish Lassie ($4)
Del Mar, Race 7, $1 exacta, #5 with #3, #4, #9, and #10
$.50 cent trifecta, Quickick with Immersive, La Cara, American Bikini, and Scottish Lassie ($6)
Del Mar, Race 7, $.50-cent trifecta, #5 with #3, #4, #9, and #10, with #3, #4, #9, and #10
For those with a larger bankroll, I recommend increasing the exacta and trifecta bets above to $2 and $1 respectively (totaling $8 and $12), and then making exacta and trifecta bets with the original base amounts of $1 and $.50 and placing Quickick second. That would add another $20 to make the total amount invested in this race $40.
Good luck, and enjoy what should be an exciting and competitive edition of the Juvenile Fillies!
Pick 4
10-7-4-3/7
10-7-4-3/7
$1,529
Superfecta
3-1-5-10
3-1-5-10
$35
Super High Five
3-1-5-10-4
3-1-5-10-4
$1,285
Pick 4
10-7-4-3/7
10-7-4-3/7
$1,529
Superfecta
3-1-5-10
3-1-5-10
$35
Super High Five
3-1-5-10-4
3-1-5-10-4
$1,285
