Horses race at the start of the Flower Bowl Stakes in 2021. The Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series race offers an expenses-paid berth to the Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf Nov. 2 at Del Mar. (Eclipse Sportswire)
Slated to be held at 1 3/8 miles on turf, the Flower Bowl has drawn 11 entries, including two horses — #10 Movie Moxy and #11 Amanda’s Folly — who will compete only if rain causes the Flower Bowl to be switched from turf to dirt. Assuming the race stays on the grass and they are scratched, we’ll be left with a nine-horse field.
Two past Flower Bowl winners have returned to seek a second victory. #1 War Like Goddess, a perennial leader among North America’s long-distance turf females, won the 2021 Flower Bowl when it was a Grade 1 race. She also finished second by a neck in the 2022 edition.
On her best day, War Like Goddess is downright formidable. She’s beaten males in the last two editions of the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes and finished third against males in the 2022 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf. She remains in good form this year, rallying to finish third in the Grade 1 New York Stakes Presented by Rivers Casino going a 1 3/16-mile distance shorter than her best before closing strongly from behind a slow pace to win the 1 3/8-mile Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park.
The challenge for War Like Goddess on Saturday is the fact she’s drawn the rail post. The Flower Bowl is unlikely to unfold at a fast pace, so if War Like Goddess gets boxed in behind a slow tempo, she may have difficulty finding a way out in time to launch a winning rally. That’s what happened in the 2022 Flower Bowl — War Like Goddess got buried on the rail behind an incredibly slow pace, and by the time she found a clear path it was too late to catch the front-running winner.
The other Flower Bowl winner entered this Saturday is #3 Parnac, who faces an opposite obstacle. Parnac led from start to finish to win the 2023 Flower Bowl by 1 1/4 lengths over #7 McKulick. But Parnac benefited from setting extremely slow quarter-mile fractions of :25.19, :51.33, and 1:18.82. She’s been defeated by McKulick in a couple of starts since then, including the 1 1/2-mile Glens Falls Stakes at Saratoga Aug. 1, so unless Parnac lucks into another uncontested lead, repeating in the Flower Bowl may prove difficult.
All this adds up to the distinct possibility of a new name winning the Flower Bowl. Three candidates appear to have strong chances: the above-mentioned McKulick, the up-and-coming #4 Eternal Hope, and the European raider #9 Verbier.
McKulick has been a force to reckon with for years. Back in 2022 she won the 1 1/4-mile, Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes and 1 3/8-mile Jockey Club Oaks Invitational. In 2023, she won the Glens Falls and the 1 3/8-mile Waya Stakes, in addition to finishing second with a poor pace setup in the Flower Bowl. This year, McKulick counts victories in the 1 1/2-mile Orchid Stakes and the Glens Falls on her record. Long-distance grass stakes are McKulick’s strong suit, and drawing post seven in the Flower Bowl affords her more options than War Like Goddess for working out a clean trip. It’s worth noting, McKulick defeated War Like Goddess by a neck in the 2023 Glens Falls here at Saratoga.
Moving on to Eternal Hope, the 4-year-old Godolphin homebred faltered in her first start of 2024, fading from a pace-pressing position to finish fourth, 3 ¾ lengths behind McKulick, in the Glens Falls. But the pace of the Glens Falls was sharp, and Eternal Hope may have needed a race for fitness purposes. Last year, Eternal Hope went 2-for-2 in North America for renowned trainer Charlie Appleby, launching strong rallies to win the 1 3/8-mile Fasig-Tipton Jockey Club Oaks Invitational and 1 1/8-mile Sands Point Stakes.
According to Brisnet statistics, Appleby wins at a lofty 37% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff. Eternal Hope is eligible to move forward in her second start of 2024, especially if she reverts to the closing tactics she employed so successfully in 2023.
As for Verbier, she’s making her North American debut after winning the British E.B.F. Lyric Fillies’ Stakes racing 1 5/16 miles at York in England. The daughter of British superstar Frankel is progressing in the right direction for trainer Ralph Beckett, who has sent Starlust and Kinross to record top-three finishes at the Breeders’ Cup World Championships in recent years.
We recommend taking a bold approach to betting the Flower Bowl. Rather than opting for a win bet on one horse, we suggest betting trifecta tickets using McKulick and Eternal Hope on top while adding War Like Goddess, Parnac, Verbier, and the Grade 1-placed #6 Neecie Marieunderneath. If we can select the top three finishes in order, we’re bound to catch a nice payoff.
Wagering Strategy A: Under $15
$1 trifecta: 4,7 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,9 ($8)
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $1 trifecta 4,7 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,9
$1 trifecta: 4,7 with 4,6,7,9 with 1 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $1 trifecta 4,7 with 4,6,7,9 with 1
Wagering Strategy B: Under $40
$1.50 trifecta: 4,7 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,9 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $1.50 trifecta 4,7 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,9
$1.50 trifecta: 4,7 with 4,6,7,9 with 1 ($9)
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $1.50 trifecta 4,7 with 4,6,7,9 with 1
$0.50 trifecta: 4,7 with 1,4,6,7,9 with 1,3,4,6,7,9 ($16)
What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $0.50 trifecta 4,7 with 1,4,6,7,9 with 1,3,4,6,7,9
