The Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes takes a new spot on the racing calendar, having traditionally been run in February until the last two years when it was run the last week in January. The Sham Stakes, which had been the kickoff race for 3-year-olds on the Santa Anita Park road to the Santa Anita Derby, is off the calendar this year so the San Vicente is now the local prep for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February. The San Felipe Stakes in March the final showcase for 3-year-olds hoping to make their mark in the Santa Anita Derby to be run on April 6 this year.
A field of six was entered for the San Vicente, led by Muth, recently second in the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thorougfhbred Aftercare Alliance and winner of the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes prior to that. The other previous stakes winner in the field is Slider, who was victorious in the Speakeasy Stakes on grass in October. Boltage finished third in the Grade 3 Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes in September before a seventh-place effort in a stakes race at Santa Anita followed by a three-month layoff. Pilot Commander was an impressive winner in his only start and calls the Bob Baffert barn home, sharing that shedrow with Muth. Similarly, Moonlit Sonata won his only start and attempts to step up and make his mark in the division. Formidable Man rounds out the field, having won at a mile on grass in his debut in September before a sixth-place effort in the Grade 3 Zuma Beach Stakes on turf in October.
Top contenders
Boltage might be able to post the upset in this field as this seven-furlong dirt distance may hit him right between the eyes. After a sixth-of-nine finish in his debut last July, Boltage dominated in a one-mile turf race, winning by 5 1/4 lengths in a field of 10 and earning an 87 Equibase Speed Figure. Stepping up in class just 17 days later, the colt wasn’t disgraced when moving to within a half-length of the leader on the turn and into the stretch before tiring to third in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes at one mile on grass, earning a similar 86 figure. Four weeks later, he didn’t run as well, finishing seventh in the Zuma Beach Stakes. Now rested three months, Boltage has been working spectacularly well in the morning for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella and appears fit as a fiddle. His pedigree suggests this trip is perfect, as another son of Bolt d’Oro (Corona Bolt) won the similar Lafayette Stakes last spring at the distance. Better still, Mike Smith gets on for the first time and — per a Race Lens query — over the previous five years when Mandella gives Smith the leg up in a dirt sprint stakes they have won four of six times, rewarding bettors with a +123% profit ($4.46 for every $2 invested).
Pilot Commander is trained by Bob Baffert, who also trains Muth, the latter very likely to be the prohibitive betting favorite in this field. However, Pilot Commander may be as talented, or more so, evidenced by his easy win on Nov. 11 in his career debut, a race in which he earned a 93 Equibase Speed Figure. A son of Justify, whose Arabian Lion won the similar Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun at the distance last year, Pilot Commander follows the same pattern for Baffert as 2021 San Vicente winner Concert Tour, who won his only start prior to victory in this race.
Muth has never finished farther back than second in four races, the most significant of those two months ago when behind 6 ¼-length winner Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That was the colt’s best effort yet, with a 103 speed figure. Prior to that, Muth earned a 100 figure winning the American Pharoah Stakes. Both of those races were around two turns, but Muth also ran well in both of his one-turn races. Baffert saddled Pinehurst to a second-place finish in the 2022 San Vicente Stakes off a fifth-place effort in the Juvenile, so Muth certainly has a high probability to be part of the exacta at the very least in this year’s race.
The rest of the field (with best Equibase Speed Figure): Formidable Man (84), Moonlit Sonata (90), and Slider (95).
Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Boltage
Pilot Commander
Muth
Superfecta
3-4-2-6
3-4-2-6
$3
Superfecta
3-4-2-6
3-4-2-6
$3
