For the first time since 1951, Canada’s most prestigious race for 3-year-old Thoroughbreds is being contested under the name of “King’s Plate.” The historic race dates back to 1860 and changes name depending on whether the monarch of the United Kingdom is a king or queen. From 1952 through 2022, the historic race was known as the Queen’s Plate in honor of Queen Elizabeth II. As a result of her passing in September 2022, and the ascent of King Charles III to the British throne, the King’s Plate name is returning for Sunday’s renewal of the $1 million race.

If you think the Kentucky Derby is difficult to handicap, you’ve never analyzed the King’s Plate. Contested at a distance of 1 1/4 miles over a synthetic Tapeta track, the King’s Plate annually draws a competitive mix of Canadian-bred colts, geldings, and fillies. Some bring fine form on Tapeta to the table, but it’s not uncommon for horses with turf or even dirt form to enter the race.

Throw in the typically large field (the 2023 King’s Plate has drawn 19 entries, including two horses on the also-eligible list), and it’s easy to understand why picking the King’s Plate winner can be even more difficult than finding the Kentucky Derby winner.

All of that said, this year’s King’s Plate features a compelling favorite in the form of #6 Kalik (3-1). While the Chad Brown trainee has never run over a synthetic track, his turf form is excellent, and success on turf often translates to strong efforts on synthetic.

Kalik has been competing with aplomb against tougher competition than he’ll encounter at Woodbine. Between March and June he won three straight races in Florida and New York, culminating with a gate-to-wire triumph in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge Stakes at Belmont Park. On that occasion, Kalik carved out a slow pace before accelerating sharply to beat next-out Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational winner Far Bridge by one length, with Grade 1 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Silver Knott settling for third place.

Kalik didn’t fare as well in the Belmont Derby, finishing eighth, but he ran into early traffic trouble and wound up racing in midfield instead of on the lead. Assuming Kalik breaks cleanly in the King’s Plate, he can secure a favorable position on or near the front end and work out a trouble-free trip under hot jockey Kazushi Kimura, the leading jockey at Woodbine this year with 65 wins from 300 rides.

It’s worth noting that Kalik isn’t the first Pennine Ridge/Belmont Derby alumnus to contest Canada’s signature race. In 2021, Safe Conduct started as the 3-1 favorite in the Queen’s Plate after finishing fourth in the Pennine Ridge and eighth in the Belmont Derby. The result? Safe Conduct tracked the pace before battling on to beat 12 Woodbine-experienced rivals by a head.

Kalik. (Jason Moran/Eclipse Sportswire)

Kalik brings better form to the mix than Safe Conduct and has every chance to replicate his predecessor with a King’s Plate victory. He’s the pick to take home top honors.

Who are the other main contenders? We can’t underestimate #13 Paramount Prince (10-1), who led all the way to win Woodbine’s 1 1/8-mile Plate Trial Stakes by five lengths last month. Trainer Mark Casse and jockey Patrick Husbands teamed up to win the 2014 Queen’s Plate with the filly Lexie Lou, so Paramount Prince is possibly the main front-end danger to Kalik.

#15 Kaukokaipuu (6-1) is another logical threat. Two starts back, he beat Paramount Prince in the Queenston Stakes dashing seven-eighths of a mile at Woodbine. A subsequent runner-up finish in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Marine Stakes at Woodbine can be viewed in a positive light; after all, the Marine is open to all three-year-old Thoroughbreds, not just ones foaled in Canada.

Then there are the fillies. No fewer than five fillies visited the Queen’s Plate winner’s circle between 2011 and 2022, and there’s a chance that momentum will continue in the King’s Plate. #2 Elysian Field (8-1) and #8  Wickenheiser (12-1) are the two female representatives in this year’s edition, with Elysian Field looking like the stronger of the two after beating Wickenheiser by 2 1/4 lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Woodbine Oaks last month. But Wickenheiser ran well in defeat after falling a dozen lengths off the early pace, so both are eligible to factor on Sunday.

So how should we bet the King’s Plate? We’ll definitely place a win bet on Kalik in hopes that his 3-1 morning line odds hold up.  If you’re playing on a small budget, we’ll leave it at that, but bettors with more capital to invest can pursue exacta and trifecta wagers in search of a bigger score.

            Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

            $10 to win on #6 Kalik

            What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $10 to win on 6

            Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

            $15 to win on #6 Kalik

            What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $15 to win on 6

            $5 exacta: 6 with 2,13,15 ($15)

            What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $5 exacta 6 with 2,13,15

            Wagering Strategy on a $50 Budget

            $20 to win on #6 Kalik

            What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $20 to win on 6

            $7 exacta: 6 with 2,13,15 ($21)

            What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $7 exacta 6 with 2,13,15

            $1 trifecta: 6 with 2,13,15 with 2,8,13,15 ($9)

            What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, 10th race, $1 trifecta 6 with 2,13,15 with 2,8,13,15

            Good luck, and enjoy the race!

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