There is always one major mystery surrounding the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve: How will the 3-year-olds handle the demanding 1 ¼-mile distance? In three of the last six runnings, there was also a second major concern: How will the runners handle a wet track?

With six days and counting until the first Saturday in May, Mother Nature could have an impact on track conditions for the May 6 classic at Churchill Downs. While the track was fast the last three years, in 2017-19 the field faced the added complication of a wet surface.

As unpredictable as weather predictions can be, even a sudden rainstorm should not have a dramatic impact on the outlook of this year’s opening leg of the Triple Crown. Of the likely 20 starters, 13 have raced on a wet track and all but one have a first, second, or third-place finish in one of those starts.

The lone 3-year-old who has flopped on a wet track is Jace’s Road, whose two starts on off-tracks resulted in losses by a combined 48 lengths. Before his last start – a third in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby on a dry track – his trainer, Brad Cox, expressed hope that a fast track would generate a strong effort by Jace’s Road after a 12 3/4 -length loss on a sloppy track in the Southwest Stakes in his previous start.

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As for the ones who have yet to race in wet going, they are: Kingsbarns, Hit Show, Mage, and Disarm.

As for the main threats, probable favorite Forte won Saratoga’s Hopeful Stakes at age 2 on a sloppy track.

Angel of Empire, the Arkansas Derby winner, won his career debut on a sloppy track at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Tapit Trice broke his maiden on a muddy track at Aqueduct.

Two Phil’s has the added advantage of owning a wet track win at Churchill Downs. He captured the two-turn Street Sense Stakes by 5 ¼ lengths last fall at the Louisville track on a sloppy surface.

Rocket Can also posted a win on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, taking a maiden race at 1 1/16 miles.

Others who have won stakes on a wet track include Raise Cain and Confidence Game.

The list of wet winners also include Sun Thunder in a maiden race, though he was fourth in the Southwest, and King Russell, whose maiden win came on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park and who has run forst or second in three races on "off" racetracks..

Reincarnate’s lone wet-track race was a third behind Confidence Game in the Rebel Stakes on a sloppy track. Verifying’s two races on an off-track produced a second in the Champagne Stakes at age 2 and a fourth in the Rebel.

Both Japanese starters have won on a wet surface. UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake won a $526,000 handicap race in Japan on a good track and was third in a $70,000 stakes race, also on a good surface.  Mandarin Hero is 2-for-2 on "off tracks," both rated as muddy, in his native Japan.