The Road to the Kentucky Derby makes a lucrative stop at Oaklawn Park this Saturday for the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile event known for producing Kentucky Derby winners such as Smarty Jones (2004) and 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

History can tell us a lot about the Rebel, which boasts a $1 million purse and awards Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualification points to the top five finishers on a 50-20-15-10-5 basis. Digging through the last 10-15 editions reveals several recurring trends helpful for predicting future winners.

Are you planning to bet the Rebel this Saturday? Then use these five historical trends to guide your handicapping:

Favor pacesetters and speed horses

It’s difficult to win the Rebel with a sweeping rally from off the pace. Case in point? Each of the last 10 winners raced within two lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. Furthermore, five of those winners led after half a mile, reiterating the power of early speed. History suggests that if you bet late runners on top, you’re unlikely to win your money back.

Avoid betting major longshots to win

Only two of the last 10 Rebel winners started as the betting favorite, but that doesn’t mean major longshots win the Rebel every time we turn around. Un Ojo sprung a 75.40-1 surprise in 2022, but the other nine winners since 2014 started at single-digit odds, including seven who started at less than 5-1.

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But don’t overlook the possibility of a longshot snatching second place. Ethereal Road (15.80-1 in 2022), Hozier (18.80-1 in 2021), Excession (82.60-1 in 2020), and Sonneteer (112.30-1 in 2017) have all garnered runner-up honors in recent years.

Bet Bob Baffert

Since 2010, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has saddled 16 starters in the Rebel Stakes. The results have been staggering: eight wins, four seconds, and one third. Five of Baffert’s winners (Nadal, American Pharoah, Secret Circle, The Factor, and Lookin At Lucky) started as the favorite, but the remaining three (Concert Tour, Cupid, and Hoppertunity) started at 1.70-1, 2.90-1 and 6.10-1, so it’s possible to catch a non-favored Baffert winner once in a while.

Shippers typically outshine the locals

A home-court advantage doesn’t mean much in the Rebel Stakes. Over the last decade, only one Rebel winner (Long Range Toddy) prepped for the race at Oaklawn Park. Among the others, five prepped in California, two came from Florida, one shipped down from New York, and one (the California-based Hoppertunity) exited a race at Fair Grounds.

Favor last-out winners

Horses entering off a victory have the best chance to win the Rebel. Seven of the last 10 Rebel winners won their previous race, while the three horses who defied this trend (Un Ojo, Long Range Toddy, and Hoppertunity) entered off defeats in graded stakes races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, making their shortcomings more forgivable.

Conclusions

Sham winner Reincarnate (Eclipse Sportswire)

Final entries for the Rebel are slated to be drawn on Monday. Among the probable starters, Reincarnate looms as a standout from a historical standpoint.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Reincarnate is shipping in from California off a determined victory in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park. In that one-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier, Reincarnate led almost every step of the way to beat stablemate Newgate by a neck. This performance was flattered when Newgate returned to win the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

So let’s see … Reincarnate is trained by Baffert, he’s shipping in from California, he’s entering off a victory, he brings pacesetting speed to the table, and he’ll almost certainly start at under 5-1 in the betting. In other words, Reincarnate is a perfect match for the historical profile of a Rebel winner, stamping the gray or roan colt as a formidable win threat at Oaklawn.

Good luck with your handicapping, and enjoy the race!