Best Bets: Big Value in Blue Grass

Gambling
The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, the signature race of the sprint meet at Keeneland, will be held Saturday at the Lexington, Ky. track. (Eclipse Sportswire)

America’s Best Racing and handicapper (and avid gambler) Monique Vág team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.

For some posts, Vág will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet. She also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity for other wagers.


This Weekend's Bets

Saturday, April 7

Best Bet

Aqueduct, Race 6, Gazelle Stakes, 3:38 p.m. ET

#3 Midnight Disguise: Her last two starts have been somewhat troubled. Two starts back, she was forced four wide into the second turn and still managed to open up to a comfortable 4 ¼-length victory. Last start, she brushed the gate early and didn’t get away to an ideal start. Despite the early troubles he’s won two straight. Confidence should be high and three in a row is looking very likely!

Longshot Play

Aqueduct, Race 8, Carter Handicap, 4:44 p.m. ET

#3 Favorable Outcome: I think he needed a start last time out after three months off. Although he disappointed as a super short-priced favorite, after missing the break he was out of the race right from the start. He’s been exceptionally inconsistent but when he’s good, he’s really fast. I think drawing inside of most of his main rivals is ideal and should work to his advantage. The 8-1 morning-line price is generous to take a shot.

Best Bet

Keeneland, Race 9, Central Bank Ashland Stakes, 5:45 p.m. ET

#1 Monomoy Girl: I like how she draws inside of her main rivals and it’s great to see how she isn’t dependent upon racing on the front end, so she’s able to overcome a poor break. She was the obvious choice of jockey Florent Geroux, who also rode morning-line second choice Eskimo Kisses in her last start. She looks like a very logical single in your Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers.

Longshot Play

Keeneland, Race 10, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, 6:23 p.m. ET

#12 Flameaway: He’s been somewhat inconsistent, but I think a lot of that is due to changing surfaces from turf to dirt and a couple troubled starts along the way. He’s gotten into some traffic trouble in the stretch — getting bumped — and he’s also been pressured every step of the way in a couple starts. Unfortunately for him, that often comes with being a horse that really wants the lead early. With a clean trip, he looks tough to beat.

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