Bolt d’Oro or McKinzie? Tough Choice in San Felipe Showdown

March 8th, 2018 by J. Keeler Johnson

Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing

It’s not every day that racing fans get to see two of the top Kentucky Derby contenders square off in March, but we’ll be in for such a treat when the $400,000 Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes is contested at Santa Anita Park this Saturday.

Held at a mile and a sixteenth, the race is set to be a memorable showdown between #1 Bolt d’Oro and #4 McKinzie, two Grade 1-winning colts that rank near the top of almost every list of prominent Derby contenders.

Speed? No doubt, they’ve got it. It’s hard to forget Bolt d’Oro’s explosive 7 ¾-length victory in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita last September, in which he left the talented Solomini far behind while recording a fast time. McKinzie? He’s turned in big speed figures with every start and cruised to an easy win in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita in January, leaving the future Grade 3 Southwest Stakes winner My Boy Jack 7 ½ lengths behind.

McKinzie (Eclipse Sportswire)

Versatility? They’ve got that too. Bolt d’Oro won the FrontRunner with a pace-tracking trip and rallied from far behind after a slow start to win the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity sprinting seven-eighths of a mile. McKinzie has been most effective racing from off the pace, but has enough speed to be positioned just about anywhere in a race.

The only problem is trying to separate Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie and determine who is more likely to win the San Felipe. A strong case can be made for either of them, and both have been catching eyes during training hours at Santa Anita. But I’m going to give the edge to McKinzie, who has a more recent run under his belt and seems poised to work out an ideal trip while breaking from post position No. 4. In contrast, Bolt d’Oro has not run since finishing third with an impossibly wide trip in the Nov. 4 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His workouts suggest that he’s ready to go, but also concerning is the fact that he’s broken slowly from the starting gate in three of his four starts. A slow start from post No. 1 could put him at a disadvantage in the San Felipe.

For bettors playing the trifecta or superfecta, I would consider #5 Aquila and #7 Peace. Aquila enters off a sharp gate-to-wire maiden win over this track and distance on Feb. 16, while Peace has kept good company and could be a candidate to rebound from a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, a race in which he reportedly didn’t care for wearing blinkers. Not surprisingly, the blinkers will be removed for the San Felipe. Lastly, #2 Ayacara could be a threat from off the pace, particularly if the track comes up wet.

Here’s how I would play the race:

Wagering Strategy

$10 to win on #4 McKinzie

$2 trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 3,5,7 ($12)

$1 trifecta: 4 with 3,5,7 with 1 ($3)

Good luck, and enjoy the race!