The $100,000, Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes Saturday at Del Mar drew a compact field of six set to go 1 1/8 miles on the main track.

The field is led by Mixto, the upset winner of the Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic Stakes over the track in August before an 11^th-place finish three weeks ago in the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. Among the rest, Salesman is the only other stakes winner, having captured the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes in November of last year. His best effort in three races this year was a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Cougar II Stakes in July. Then there’s Skinner, who makes his second start following 11 months off after finishing second in this race last year right before the layoff. Mirahmadi comes into the race off a 10-length maiden win in his ninth career start. Tarantino and Ultra Power were separated by inches when first and third, respectively, in a strong allowance race four weeks ago, and both warrant consideration based on those efforts.

Top Contenders to win:

Ultra Power is one of two entrants in the race trained by Bob Baffert, who also saddles Mirahmadi. Baffert has won this race three years in a row and appears likely to keep his streak intact. Although Mirahmadi was extremely impressive when winning by 10 lengths on Oct. 12, that win was against a maiden field. On the other hand, Ultra Power ran much better even though third in an allowance race two weeks later on Oct. 26, earning a 112 Equibase Speed Figure which is tied for the highest last-race figure earned by any horse in this field. Tarantino, who ended up a pair of heads in front of Ultra Power at the finish of the race, also earned a 112 figure. One of the reasons Ultra Power may be the one to beat in this field is his 112 figure was preceded by an even-better 113 figure on August 31. Prior to that, Ultra Power had been away from the races for nearly 10 months but even without a prep race the son of Curlin dominated to win by seven lengths. In the race on Oct. 26, Tarantino battled head-and-head for the lead for the first six furlongs, while Ultra Power relaxed in fourth until given his cue by jockey Juan Hernandez, who rides again in this race. In this race it is likely Mirahmadi, Tarantino and Mixto will vie for the early lead from the start and Ultra Power will be in the same spot until the field enters the stretch. This time, he can go by the pacesetters and pressers for the win.

Mixto wins big at Del Mar. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Skinner is the only real closer in the field, as he has been seventh after a quarter mile on average in his last four races. With only six entered in this race, we can expect Skinner to be taking up that sixth position in the early stages. If the pacesetters tire each other out, Skinner could benefit greatly. Skinner showed a lot of talent when missing by a nose and a half-length in the 2023 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, earning a career-best 106 figure. Then in the 2023 Native Diver Stakes, Skinner raced in last of seven for the first half before moving up nicely, ending up second at the finish and earning a 104 figure. The early fractions last year were moderate at best with the opening half mile in :48.6 and six furlongs in 1:13.4. It is extremely unlikely the pace will be that slow in this year’s edition of the race. Skinner can improve greatly off a sprint prep three weeks ago following 11 months on the sidelines and it would be no surprise if he ran past the field for the win.

About the rest: As mentioned previously, Mirahmadi earned a strong 110 figure winning last month but against maidens. Juan Hernandez had ridden the colt in his last four races but opts for Ultra Power in this spot. Mixto posted the 22.20-1 upset in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August but had not won in six previous starts since breaking his maiden and I view that race, even with a 108 figure, to be an outlier. The only win in seven starts since coming to the U.S. for Salesman came in the 1 5/8-mile Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes a little over a year ago, and although he earned a 108 figure, the effort came when he led from start to finish. It’s highly unlikely he makes the lead in the Native Diver given the early speed of Mirahmadi. Tarantino was claimed for $40,000 three races back in July, in a sprint, then won a sprint and a route race with respectable 107 and 112 figures. He raced on the lead through the opening six furlongs in that route win four weeks ago and is another in this race who will be contesting the early pace and likely tiring from his effort.

Win contenders in preference, handicapper’s probability order:

Ultra Power

Skinner