The complexion of Saturday’s $400,000 Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont at the Big A has changed significantly since entries were drawn.
The one-mile contest for 2-year-old fillies originally drew a field of 10, all vying for a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Nov. 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and also for qualification points on the 2024-’25 Road to the Longines Kentucky Oaks. But the Daily Racing Form’s David Grening reported that both #8 Senza Parole (3-5) and #6 Paradise City (12-1) will be scratched, leaving eight fillies to compete.
The scratch of Senza Parole is a big one. She was the heavy morning-line favorite after dominating her debut at Saratoga by 7 3/4 lengths. In her absence, favoritism could potentially fall on #1 Snowyte (6-1), which is a bit ironic given that Snowyte has yet to win a race.
There is actually a lot to like about Snowyte. The daughter of 2017 champion 2-year-old male Good Magic debuted in a maiden special weight sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Saratoga, where she set a quick pace before weakening in the final yards to finish second by 2 1/2 lengths. Even in defeat, she earned a respectable 86 Brisnet speed rating that stacks up well against the Frizette field.
There are reasons to believe Snowyte can improve significantly this Saturday. She’s trained by Danny Gargan, and according to Brisnet statistics, Gargan wins at a powerful 29% rate with horses running in a route race (one mile or farther) for the first time. Also, Snowyte will add blinkers for the Frizette, and Gargan wins at a 23% rate with horses wearing blinkers for the first time. Throw in the fact she’s bred to shine racing one mile and Snowyte is a compelling win candidate.
Another intriguing contender is #9 Social Fortress (12-1). She hasn’t been remotely challenged in two starts for high-percentage trainer Jamie Ness, who has won with 25% of his starters this year. She debuted in a maiden special weight race sprinting five-eighths of a mile at Delaware Park, where she led all the way to trounce her rivals by 11 lengths. Subsequently stretching out to one mile for the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth Park, Social Fortress again took command early and overwhelmed six opponents in a seven-length runaway.
Social Fortress has yet to run especially fast, but her huge margins of victory suggest she may have more to offer. She’s been turning in fast workouts in preparation for the Frizette and shouldn’t be underestimated under hot jockey Jaime Rodriguez. According to Brisnet statistics, Rodriguez has won at a 29% rate teaming up with Ness over the last two months.
Who are other logical Frizette contenders? Certainly, we must respect #10 Icona Mama (15-1). She joined the Road to the Kentucky Oaks with a close third-place finish in the one-mile, Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs, where she was beaten by only three-quarters of a length.
#2 The Queens M G (10-1) is interesting, too. She misfired on a muddy track in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes last time out, finishing a distant fifth. But she’d previously posted dominant victories in the Schuylerville Stakes and Grade 3 Adirondack Stakes at Saratoga, earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 84 and 89, so we know The Queens M G is capable of competing at a high level on her best day.
We shouldn’t underestimate #3 Pondering (12-1) either. She never factored in the Spinaway, finishing seventh by more than 23 lengths. But perhaps she didn’t care for the muddy footing. On a fast track in her debut at Ellis Park, Pondering pressed the pace on her way to victory by 2 1/4 lengths. A return to that level of form would make this Godolphin homebred an intriguing longshot contender under hot jockey Flavien Prat.
It also could be a mistake to underestimate the chances of #7 Another Cleeshay (20-1), who led all the way to crush a maiden special weight sprint at Saratoga by 9 1/2 lengths in her lone start to date.
So how do we take all these opinions and turn them into a betting strategy for the Frizette? We’ll focus our attention on the trifecta, which requires selecting the top three finishers in order.
We’ll build our tickets around Snowyte, counting on her to finish first or second. Social Fortress, The Queens M G, and Pondering are the others we’ll play on top of some tickets, and we’ll add Icona Mama and Another Cleeshay underneath.
Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget
$0.50 trifecta: 1 with 2,3,9 with 2,3,7,9,10 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 7, $0.50 trifecta 1 with 2,3,9 with 2,3,7,9,10
$0.50 trifecta: 2,3,9 with 1 with 2,3,7,9,10 ($6)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 7, $0.50 trifecta 2,3,9 with 1 with 2,3,7,9,10
Wagering Strategy on a $34 Budget
$1.50 trifecta: 1 with 2,3,9 with 2,3,7,9,10 ($18)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 7, $1.50 trifecta 1 with 2,3,9 with 2,3,7,9,10
$1 trifecta: 2,3,9 with 1 with 2,3,7,9,10 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 7, $1 trifecta 2,3,9 with 1 with 2,3,7,9,10
$0.50 trifecta: 1 with 7,10 with 2,3,7,9,10 ($4)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 7, $0.50 trifecta 1 with 7,10 with 2,3,7,9,10
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 4
2/5-3/7-5-5
2/5-3/7-5-5
$214
Pick 5
6-2/5-3/7-5-5
6-2/5-3/7-5-5
$3,862
Consolation Pick 3
3-5-2
3-5-2
$19
Superfecta
5-1-9-7
5-1-9-7
$23
Consolation Double
5-2
5-2
$5
Pick 4
2/5-3/7-5-5
2/5-3/7-5-5
$214
Pick 5
6-2/5-3/7-5-5
6-2/5-3/7-5-5
$3,862
Consolation Pick 3
3-5-2
3-5-2
$19
Superfecta
5-1-9-7
5-1-9-7
$23
Consolation Double
5-2
5-2
$5
