The $500,000, Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga this weekend is a race you don’t want to miss. The race is scheduled for Saturday, Aug. 10, but might be rescheduled to Sunday, Aug. 11, if heavy rain forecasted for the upstate New York region on Friday and Saturday causes races to be moved off the turf.

The one-mile grass contest is a pivotal steppingstone toward the Nov. 2 Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF; in fact, the Fourstardave awards its winner a fees-paid berth to the Breeders’ Cup. That’s a fitting prize since the Fourstardave regularly attracts past or future Breeders’ Cup Mile winners such as Wise Dan (first in 2012 and 2013), Tourist (first in 2016), World Approval (first in 2017), and Uni (third in 2019 and seventh in 2020). Furthermore, recent Fourstardave winners like Got Stormy (2019 and 2021) and Casa Creed (2022 and 2023) have recorded top-three finishes in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

The 2024 Fourstardave field was slated to feature 2023 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner #2 Master of The Seas, who would have been a heavy favorite to record his fourth Grade 1 win from five North American starts. The standout miler has unfortunately scratched from the Fourstardave, but perhaps one of the remaining six entrants will go on to achieve similar star status with a victory in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Certainly there are some talented horses remaining in the field. Consider #6 Ottoman Fleet (8-5), a stablemate of Master of The Seas trained by Charlie Appleby, who has won with 34% of his North American starters this year. Ottoman Fleet has proven to be an excellent campaigner around the world over distances from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles. In North America, he won the 2023 Grade 2 Fort Marcy Stakes before returning this year to take the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes and Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes.

Ottoman Fleet has never run as short as one mile, but the Arlington and Wise Dan took place over 1 1/16 miles, so cutting back another sixteenth of a mile shouldn’t be a major obstacle. He’s slated to be ridden by hot jockey Flavien Prat, a 22% winner at Saratoga who has gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up with Appleby over the last two months according to Brisnet statistics, so any way you slice it Ottoman Fleet is a serious win threat.

But we can’t overlook #4 Carl Spackler (9-5) as a challenger. Trained by Chad Brown (a 23% winner at Saratoga this meet), Carl Spackler has won three of his four starts on turf at Saratoga. As a 3-year-old last year, he proved much the best in the one-mile Grade 2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes and 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Saranac Stakes, winning by margins of 2 ¼ lengths and 3 ½ lengths.

Carl Spackler suffered his lone Saratoga defeat in the one-mile Grade 3 Poker Stakes two starts back, in which a slow early/fast late pace compromised his chances to some degree. But he was back to his best in the July 13 Grade 3 Kelso Stakes racing one mile at Saratoga, tracking the pace from second place before finishing fast to win by half a length. Carl Spackler has every chance to work out another favorable trip tracking tried-and-true speed horse #1 Strong Quality (8-1) in second or third place, setting the stage for a showdown with Ottoman Fleet down the homestretch.

#7 More Than Looks (7-2) is another intriguing contender. He launched a big late charge to finish sixth in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Mile, beaten only two lengths after gaining 6 ¼ lengths through the final eighth of a mile. Victorious in the one-mile Grade 3 Manila Stakes at Belmont Park last summer, More Than Looks hasn’t run since the Breeders’ Cup and may be short of peak fitness off the long layoff. But in terms of talent, he’s a must-use player under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

We believe Ottoman Fleet, Carl Spackler, and More Than Looks are the three strongest contenders in the Fourstardave field, so we’ll focus our attention on betting the trifecta. We’ll play Ottoman Fleet and Carl Spackler on top while using More Than Looks for second and third place.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$2.50 trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6,7 with 4,6,7 ($10)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $2.50 trifecta 4,6 with 4,6,7 with 4,6,7

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$7.50 trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6,7 with 4,6,7 ($30)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, 10th race, $7.50 trifecta 4,6 with 4,6,7 with 4,6,7

Good luck, and enjoy the race!