Once upon a time, in the year 2021, an unheralded Japanese-bred mare named Marche Lorraine arrived at Del Mar to compete in the $2 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
Bettors didn’t know what to make of the international raider. Her last-out victory in the Breeders’ Gold Cup racing 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) in Japan failed to impress U.S. analysts, and she started as a 49.90-1 longshot in the 1 1/8-mile Distaff. But alas, when the dust settled at Del Mar, it was Marche Lorraine who visited the winner’s circle after defeating an elite field of American fillies and mares by a nose.
Three years later, the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff is returning to Del Mar this Saturday. The American filly #2 Thorpedo Anna (4-5) is a heavy morning-line favorite, and deservedly so after rattling off a bevy of big wins this year. But Japanese challenger #9 Awesome Result (4-1) is seeking to emulate Marche Lorraine with a Breeders’ Gold Cup-Breeders’ Cup Distaff double, and from all appearances Awesome Result is superior to her predecessor.
A daughter of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, Awesome Result hasn’t tasted defeat in seven starts, all in Japan. Her unblemished record has been compiled with a variety of running styles. Three starts back she rallied from 10th place to win the Aldebaran Stakes at 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles). But last time out in the Breeders’ Cup Gold, Awesome Result raced in third place for much of the way before seizing command to dominate by five lengths.
Awesome Result’s margin of victory towered over the half-length by which Marche Lorraine won the same race in 2021. Awesome Result’s winning time of 2:04 was also superior, beating Marche Lorraine’s 2:06.60 clocking by 2.6 seconds.
Obviously, comparing race times across different years is fraught with risk; Marche Lorraine competed on a good track while Awesome Result prevailed on sloppy footing, and the differing conditions may have influenced the time gap. But the speed and authority of Awesome Result’s triumph, coupled with her perfect 7-for-7 record, suggests she’s one of the best dirt horses Japan has ever sent to compete in the Breeders’ Cup.
Even better, Awesome Result appears to have picked the perfect year to tackle the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. An ill-timed minor knee injury has derailed 2023 Distaff winner Idiomatic from her repeat bid, and many of the other entrants — while capable performers — aren’t especially fast in terms of Beyer Speed Figures and Brisnet Speed ratings.
The above-mentioned Thorpedo Anna is an obvious exception. The 3-year-old daughter of Fast Anna has been virtually unstoppable this season. She’s 5-for-5 facing fellow fillies, counting wins in the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks, Grade 1 DK Horse Acorn Stakes, Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes, and Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes on her record. She’s also competed with aplomb against 3-year-old males, rallying gamely to finish second by a head against champion Fierceness in the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes. That effort yielded powerful speed figures of 111 (Beyer) and 107 (Brisnet).
But Thorpedo Anna is coming to the end of an action-packed year, and it’s worth noting she ran below her best in the Cotillion. After saving ground and waiting for racing room around the final turn, Thorpedo Anna found a seam between rivals and rallied to the front. But the pace-tracking Gun Song wasn’t done yet and nearly battled back to beat Thorpedo Anna, ultimately finishing second by a neck.
The final time of the 1 1/16-mile Cotillion was a modest 1:45.45, and Thorpedo Anna’s speed figures declined from the Travers, dropping to 93 (Beyer) and 96 (Brisnet). Fast workouts since the Cotillion suggest Thorpedo Anna is capable of rebounding, but she’s been in winning form since March, and staying on top all year long can be difficult. Thorpedo Anna is the filly to beat if she brings her “A” game, but anything less than a peak showing could open the door for Awesome Result to surprise … not at 49-1 odds like Marche Lorraine, but at the still-enticing price of 4-1.
We’ll bet the Breeders’ Cup Distaff accordingly. Bettors playing on small budgets (say, $10) can keep things simple with a win bet on Awesome Result, hoping for a $50 payoff. But if you want to invest more (say, $30) and shoot for a bigger score, exacta and trifecta tickets using Thorpedo Anna and Personal Ensign Stakes winner #6 Raging Sea (7-2) underneath should have a strong chance to hit. Raging Sea has won five graded stakes within the last year and got the better of Idiomatic in the Personal Ensign, so we know she’s talented enough to compete against this caliber of competition.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #9 Awesome Result
What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, Race 6, $10 to win on 9
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 to win on #9 Awesome Result
What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, Race 6, $15 to win on 9
$5 exacta: 9 with 2,6 ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, Race 6, $5 exacta 9 with 2,6
$2.50 trifecta: 9 with 2,6 with 2,6 ($5)
What to say at the betting window: Del Mar, 6th race, $2.50 trifecta 9 with 2,6 with 2,6
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Daily Double
JUVF-DSTF(3-2)
JUVF-DSTF(3-2)
$5
Consolation Pick 3
8-1-2
8-1-2
$15
Superfecta
2-6-1-4
2-6-1-4
$7
Super High Five
2-6-1-4-5
2-6-1-4-5
$65
Consolation Double
JUVF-DSTF(3-9)
JUVF-DSTF(3-9)
$4
Daily Double
JUVF-DSTF(3-2)
JUVF-DSTF(3-2)
$5
Consolation Pick 3
8-1-2
8-1-2
$15
Superfecta
2-6-1-4
2-6-1-4
$7
Super High Five
2-6-1-4-5
2-6-1-4-5
$65
Consolation Double
JUVF-DSTF(3-9)
JUVF-DSTF(3-9)
$4
