The $1 million, Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs drew a well-matched nine-horse field led by Skippylongstocking, who has earned nearly $2.3 million in his career and who most recently won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. First Mission went over the million-dollar mark in earnings last month when victorious in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes Presented by TwinSpires over Churchill’s dirt track, and on paper those two are the top contenders in this race, which is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic in November.
However, there are other horses with legitimate chances in the Foster, such as recent Grade 3 Pimlico Special Stakes winner Pyrenees, who has won four races in a row. Pimlico Special runner-up Kingsbarns has proven competitive at the level with a win in the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes in April. Disarm finished second in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes last summer and returned off a layoff to win last month over this track, so he could be in the hunt as well. Happy American finished third in the 2023 Foster and was third in a recent prep race at Churchill Downs. Classic Causeway has earned over $1.5 million to date but is winless since taking the Grade 1 Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes on grass two summers ago. Steal Sunshine won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes Presented by Jack Christopher in March around one tun and has finished third and fourth, respectively, in two similar two-turn races since then. Dreamlike has won just once in nine races but has been second or third in six of the other seven, including in the Grade 3 Blame Stakes at Churchill four weeks ago.
Top contenders:
Pyrenees drew the ground-saving rail for the Stephen Foster, and that may give him a slight edge over some more experienced horses. Having won four races in a row going back to December of last year, Pyrenees has continued to mature physically and mentally as well while moving up in class, starting with his maiden win and culminating with a victory in the Pimlico Special Stakes last month. In those four races, Pyrenees improved his Equibase Speed Figures from 89, to 96, to 99, topping off with a career-best figure of 103 earned in the Pimlico Special. In three of his four wins, all with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. in the saddle, Pyrenees stalked the early pacesetters in second, third or fourth, but in his win on April 12, held at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Foster, Pyrenees took the lead from the start when no other horse wanted it and controlled the tempo to the wire while drawing off in the stretch by three lengths. In the Pimlico Special held at 1 3/16 miles, Pyrenees returned to a stalking style as he surged from third in the final eighth of a mile and outfinished heavy favorite Kingsbarns, who had made the lead with an eighth of a mile to run, to win by three-quarters of a length. This colt has the speed to lead from the start or to stalk the pacesetters and then pounce in the stretch, retains Hernandez in the saddle, and is on a pattern to take another big step forward in his Equibase Speed Figure. Pyrenees looks to be a formidable contender in this field.
Skippylongstocking has run two big races in a row, the first- and third-best of his victories over the past year, and it would be no surprise if he gets his picture taken in the winner’s circle for the ninth time in his 24th career start Saturday. He proved himself at the level last summer when leading from start to finish in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic Stakes held at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Stephen Foster, and then wasn’t disgraced one bit when he finished third behind Cody’s Wish in last November’s Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. After not finishing in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat to start his 5-year-old campaign in January, Skippylongstocking redeemed himself beautifully with wins in the Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes in March followed by the Oaklawn Handicap on April 20. That race earned him a career-top 114 Equibase Speed Figure, which is second by one point to the back-to-back 115 figures First Mission earned in his last two races. Skippylongstocking has excellent tactical sped as well, as four of his last five wins have come when he pressed the leader in second for the opening three-quarters of a mile, and the other one earned when he led from the start. Drawing the outside post in the Foster does not appear to be a disadvantage for him, as he drew the 10 post in a field of 11 in the Oaklawn Handicap, and overcame it when jockey Jose Ortiz (who rides again in the Foster) positioned him in the three path, then the two path, on the first turn. With a similarly long run from the start to the first turn in the Foster, Skippylongstocking could find himself on the lead, or just behind Pyrenees in the early stages, and from there the strategy of Hernandez and Ortiz aboard their mounts may be something to behold.
First Mission is certainly a strong contender, having tallied five wins in eight career starts and also a runner-up finish by a nose in the Clark Stakes Presented by Norton Healthcare last November over this track. He was a 3-year-old last fall and earned an extremely strong 112 figure in the Clark, making the lead and opening up by a length with an eighth of a mile to go before losing in a head bob on the wire. After resting a couple of months, and similar to Skippylongstocking, First Mission ran poorly in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational, checking in ninth of 12 with no visible excuse. Returning two months later in the Essex Handicap, First Mission was an entirely different horse, dominating in the stretch and ridden out to a five-length win with a career-best 115 figure. Returning five weeks later, First Mission repeated that effort in the Alysheba Stakes with a 115 figure and four-length victory. As he’s a 4-year-old (like Pyrenees), First Mission may not be fully matured, which means another top effort is likely forthcoming in this race.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Classic Causeway (110), Disarm (107), Dreamlike (113), Happy American (113), Kingsbarns (108) and Steal Sunshine (110).
Win Contenders:
Pyrenees
Skippylongstocking
First Mission
Superfecta
7-1-9-2
7-1-9-2
$88
Super High Five
7-1-9-2-8
7-1-9-2-8
$20,157
Trifecta
7-1-9
7-1-9
$205
Superfecta
7-1-9-2
7-1-9-2
$88
Super High Five
7-1-9-2-8
7-1-9-2-8
$20,157
Trifecta
7-1-9
7-1-9
$205
