The $275,000, Grade 3 Regret Stakes Saturday at Churchill Downs features a very competitive 10-horse field, highlighted by three fillies exiting the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes Presented by TwinSpires held on this turf course four weeks ago.

Way to Be Marie is one of those, having led late before finishing second by a half-length at the end to Dynamic Pricing. Dancing N Dixie finished just a neck behind Way to Be Marie in that race and was third in two stakes in a row prior to that. Buchu won the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes Presented by Japan Racing Association in April before finishing sixth in the Edgewood. Everland won the Bourbonette Oaks in March on an all-weather track before posting a fifth-place finish on conventional dirt in the Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks in early May. Faith Understood finished second in the Memories of Silver Stakes in New York near the end of April and is another proven competitor at this level on grass. Pin Up Betty was very impressive with a five-length win on grass on May 9 and runs in a stakes race for the first time, as does Sassy Princess, who finished fourth but was beaten inches for the win in her most recent race. Hello Hollywood finished third in that same race and was fourth in the Sanibel Island Stakes prior to that. Gavea won last September when importing from Europe but then ran poorly, and now returns off a seven-month layoff. Poolside with Slim finished fifth in the Appalachian Stakes in her most recent start.

Win contenders:

Pin Up Betty finished second in four straight races stretching back to November of last year before finally earning her first win three weeks ago. However, it must be noted three of those runner-up efforts came on dirt or all-weather tracks, with only the last one on turf. Perhaps more importantly, Pin Up Betty was rested nearly three months between her dirt race on January 19 and her first turf race on April 13 and seems to have matured a lot physically and mentally during the time off in addition to really taking to the grass. In the April 13 race, Pin Up Betty made a bold move in the stretch to get to within a neck of the leader and although the winner drew off to score by 3 ½ lengths after that, Pin Up Betty was exceptionally game in keeping the third-place finisher at bay by a neck at the wire. Next, running over the Churchill Downs turf for the first time on May 9 and at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Regret Stakes, Pin Up Betty rallied wide starting with a quarter mile left to go to be in front by 2 ½ lengths into the stretch, then drew off to win by five lengths. Pin Up Betty earned a 93 Equibase Speed Figure and then a 94 figure in her two previous starts, and the filly will be racing against her 3-year-old age group in the Regret after defeating a field of fillies and mares 3 and up on May 9. Therefore, this one could be poised for her best effort yet and that could be good enough to post the upset against this field.

Pin Up Betty (Coady Media)

Buchu burst on the scene when she won the Jessamine Stakes Presented by Keeneland November last October. Following a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in November, Buchu was given five months off and returned to winning form in the Appalachian Stakes, earning a career-best 106 figure. Off that win, Buchu was well-regarded four weeks ago in the Edgewood Stakes but finished sixth, still earning a strong 104 figure. That poor effort could have been the result of the soggy turf course which was labeled yielding that day. She’ll be back on firmer ground Saturday, and having won over the Churchill Downs turf course last September, Buchu could return to form good enough to win this year’s Regret Stakes.

Hello Hollywood didn’t run well in her career debut in January when trying two turns on grass without benefit of a shorter race first, but her three starts since have all resulted in good efforts and her pattern for improvement can’t be ignored. Hello Hollywood won on Feb. 25 in her second start, then although she finished fourth in the Sanibel Island Stakes after that, she was involved in a three-way photo for second. She improved to a career-best 98 figure last month when beaten a nose and a neck for the win and turned in a very strong effort. Hello Hollywood could run even better in this race, and like Pin Up Betty, she could post an upset as we can expect her odds to be higher than other horses with proven stakes form.

Two other horses with stakes form are Way to Be Marie and Dancing N Dixie, who finished second and third, respectively, in the Edgewood Stakes, both of them in front of Buchu. Way to Be Marie earned a career-best 107 figure with that effort, a big improvement from the 100 speed figure earned before that in March when winning an allowance race on the grass. In the Edgewood, Way to Be Marie rallied from fourth on the turn to lead with an eighth of a mile to go but was outfinished by the winner, while Dancing N Dixie (who earned a 106 figure) was widest of the 11 horses entering the stretch and rolling late to move from eighth to third in the final eighth of a mile. Although those were good efforts and both fillies may be competitive again in the Regret, I think they also may be bet more heavily than is correct for their win probability, noting that, for example, Dancing N Dixie finished third in two straight stakes races prior to the Edgewood while rallying much too late to be a win contender.

The rest of the field, with their best representative  Equibase Speed Figures, is Everland (100), Faith Understood (92), Gavea (92), Poolside with Slim (96) and Sassy Princess (97).

Win Contenders in preference order:

Pin Up Betty

Buchu

Hello Hollywood