
2025 Kentucky Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down for March 18
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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Six Beginner Betting Tools
We’re back at Saratoga this Saturday for another installment of Weekend Winners. This week, let’s focus on the two featured stakes races for fillies on the card, including the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes Presented by Caesars Sportsbook and the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales. These events have drawn classy and competitive fields and will be a showcase of some of the best 3-year-old fillies around on both the turf and the dirt. Enjoy another great weekend of racing and wagering from Saratoga, and best of luck.
Saratoga Race Course, Race 9, $200,000 Lake Placid Stakes Presented by Caesars Sportsbook, post time 5:04 p.m. ET
A large 11-horse field of 3-year-old fillies has been assembled for Saturday’s grass feature at Saratoga, the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course. The horse in the field that seems to stand out above the others is #7 She Feels Pretty, who was a Grade 1 winner as a 2-year-old in the Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes and finished third when beaten by only a half a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf. She returned as a 3-year-old with a win in the $100,000 Hilltop Stakes and then just missed another Grade 1 win last time when a close third in the Fasig-Tipton Belmont Oaks Invitational behind Cinderella’s Dream, who has since come back to win the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Oaks Invitational, as well. As the favorite and horse to beat, you will probably need to hook-up She Feels Pretty in the exotics in order to make a profitable score in this race. For that, the best of the rest looks like #10 Dynamic Pricing, who is already a Grade 2 stakes winner from Saratoga’s leading turf trainer, Chad Brown. She didn’t draw the best post, but she is a late runner who will be closing from far behind anyway so the post shouldn’t matter much if she’s good enough. Another contender drawn on the far outside is #11 Beautiful Love trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin. Beautiful Love won big in a turf allowance race in Dubai when last seen back in February and she could factor into the exotics if ready to roll in this return from the sidelines. Finally, there is also another foreign invader in this field who might have a chance, and that’s #6 Les Reys who is coming off two straight wins in France at Longchamp and makes her U.S. debut in the Lake Placid for turf ace trainer Christophe Clement.
The Play: Bet to win on #7 She Feels Pretty (2-1) to win and play her on top in a trifecta key over three horses, #6 Les Reys (10-1), #10 Dynamic Pricing (6-1), and #11 Beautiful Love (4-1).
Saratoga Race Course, Race 10, $600,000 Alabama Stakes Presented by Keeneland Sales, post time 5:43 p.m. ET
Saratoga’s Saturday feature is the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, and a field of eight has been assembled ready to run 1 ¼ miles on the main track. Everyone in the field breathed a big sigh of relief when it was announced that divisional leader Thorpedo Anna would skip the Alabama in order to take on the boys next weekend in the DraftKings Travers Stakes. What we are left with is a wide-open race amongst the fillies vying to be the best of the rest. That should be #3 Power Squeeze, a filly that has lost twice against Thorpedo Anna but has won four other stakes races this year in that rival’s absence including the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks last time and the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Oaks earlier this year where she beat Ways and Means, who since won the Grade 1 Test Stakes Presented by Ticketmaster earlier this month at Saratoga. In the Alabama, the difference maker between winning and losing is often the 1 ¼-mile distance. Power Squeeze is a filly that always gains ground in the stretch of all of her wins and should benefit the most from the distance. The best horses she will have to pass on Saturday will be the potent Todd Pletcher-trained 1-2 punch of #6 Miss Justify and #7 Candied. Miss Justify looks ready for this step up in class following back-to-back wins including the $135,000 Wilton Stakes at Saratoga, and Candied is the favorite and horse to beat based on her loaded stakes résumé that includes a win in last fall’s Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes and a runner-up finish to Thorpedo Anna last time out in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks.
The Play: Bet #3 Power Squeeze (9-2) to win and play her in exacta and trifecta boxes along with #6 Miss Justify (6-1), and #7 Candied (7-5).