Noel’s Weekend Winners: Saturday Selections in the Hoosier State

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Weekend Winners handicapping betting gambling horse racing exacta trifecta Horseshoe Indianapolis Indiana Derby Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial Me and Mr. C Mike Maker Runaway Storm Stronghold Informed Patriot E J Won the Cup
The starting gate springs open at Horseshoe Indianapolis. (Coady Media)

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners is brought to you by Horseplayers.com, the official online qualifying site of the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) and National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). Horseplayers.com offers low-cost feeders every day and BCBC and NHC qualifiers every weekend, and it’s the only site where you can qualify for the $1.25 million BCBC. It’s free to sign up – click here to get information about registering and how to enter contests.


Six Beginner Betting Tools

  1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
  2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
  3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
  5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
  6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

The extended July 4th holiday weekend comes complete with stakes racing at racetracks all over the country as many places like Horseshoe Indianapolis host their biggest race days of the year this Saturday. That track’s 12-race July 6 card is a big one, with a total of eight stakes races on the program including a pair of graded stakes – the Grade 3 Indiana Derby and the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks. The day will also feature six undercard stakes races with $100,000 purses, and many of those will be headline betting races, as well. For this weekend’s winners, let’s concentrate on the Saturday races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, with the focus on the Indiana Derby and perhaps the best of the undercard races, the Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial Stakes, which goes earlier in the afternoon as race 6. Enjoy the Independence Day weekend, and best of luck at the races.

weekend Television schedule

Thursday, July 4: 1-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Friday, July 5: 1-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, July 6: 12:30-7 p.m. and 8-11 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, July 7: 12:30-1 p.m. on FS2; 1-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 6, $100,000 Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial, post time 2:56 p.m. ET

The Schuster Memorial is a 1 1/16-mile turf race for older horses that has drawn a field of 11 entries and features plenty of live contenders. Among the horses in the field is the defending champion of this race, #11 Me and Mr. C, drawn all the way on the far outside. The Mike Maker trainee won the Schuster last year with a stretch rally from a midpack stalking spot and will hope for a similar track again this year. Me and Mr. C has been able to earn consistently solid speed figures in the year since he won this race, yet his morning-line odds of 6-1 indicate he may be an overlay by the time the gates open. The other interesting entrant is #1 Runaway Storm, who probably is the most talented horse in this bunch but is somewhat of a question mark in what will be his first start back from an eight-month layoff after last being seen in October winning the Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes at Keenelend. There’s no telling if he will be ready for his best effort right off the bat, but he needs to be respected based on his strong 3-year-old season last year that also included a turf allowance win right here at Horseshoe Indianapolis at this distance and a third-place finish in what turned out to be an extraordinarily tough running of the $500,000, Grade 3 New Kent County Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs where he finished behind the likes of Integration and Program Trading in a key race.

The Play: Bet to win on #11 Me and Mr. C (6-1) and play him in an exacta box with #1 Runaway Storm (9-2).

Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 12, $300,000 Indiana Derby, post time 6:41 p.m. ET

Stronghold (BENOIT photo)

The Grade 3 Indiana Derby has been able to assemble a stellar field of 3-year-olds that have shown a lot of promise in their best efforts so far in a variety of Derbies at tracks all around the country. Among the horses in the field are #2 Stronghold, who won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby, as well as #3 Real Men Violin, who was second in the $200,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, #5 Informed Patriot, who won the $250,000 Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and #7 E J Won the Cup, who won the $300,000 Texas Derby at Lone Star Park in addition to the $60,000 Turf Paradise Derby. Now we arrive at the Indiana Derby, and the question is, which of these horses can take the next step?

The advantage in this race certainly goes to Stronghold based on his accomplishments so far, especially if you are willing to forgive him for his seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve where he raced competitively but faded in the stretch. He might not have handled 1 ¼ miles, but this shorter assignment of 1 1/16 miles looks right up his alley. Among the horses he beat in his Santa Anita Derby victory was third-place E J Won the Cup, and that horse flattered him when he came back to win the Texas Derby. Speaking of E J Won the Cup, he also must be considered one of the serious contenders based on his Texas Derby win last time, which was by far his best career effort to date and seems to indicate he is coming into his own now. Stronghold and E J Won the Cup look tough to beat, but there won’t be a lot of value in this race if you are just betting the favorites. If you are looking for a horse at value odds with a realistic chance, at least in the trifectas, that horse is Informed Patriot at 15-1 on the morning line. Informed Patriot disappointed in the Texas Derby but you can’t blame those who give him another chance based on his Bath House Row Stakes win at Oaklawn where he beat some solid horses like Gould’s Gold, who went on to finish second in the $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes and Grade 3 Ohio Derby, and Imperial Gun, who returned to finish third in the Sir Barton.

The Play:  Bet #2 Stronghold (2-1) to win and box him in exactas and trifectas along with #5 Informed Patriot (15-1) and #7 E J Won the Cup (5-2).

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