
2025 Kentucky Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down for March 18
Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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Six Beginner Betting Tools
Saturday, Sept. 21
Saturday is the biggest day of the year in Pennsylvania racing, headlined by the appearance of the country’s standout 3-year-old filly sensation Thorpedo Anna who would be an overlay at anything more than 1-5 odds in the Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion Stakes. The day’s other feature at Parx Racing will be the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, which is a much better betting race with a field of 11 3-year-olds assembled in search of a win in an extremely soft Grade 1 spot. This pair of million-dollar spotlight races tops a rich 14-race Saturday program at Parx that contains a total of 11 stakes with five of them graded.
The standout undercard betting race of the day is the nightcap in the $100,000 Parx Sprint Stakes, which drew an evenly matched field of 11 horses that rounds out the outstanding day of racing and wagering with perhaps the toughest handicapping puzzle on the card. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on the final two races on Parx’s 14-race Saturday card, the Pennsylvania Derby and the Parx Sprint. If we can finish strong at Parx on Saturday, including in the late Daily Double, we should go home with good money in our pockets. Best of luck.
Parx Racing, Race 13, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, 6:10 p.m. ET
The Pennsylvania Derby drew an 11-horse field and will be a good betting race, especially because the horse to beat in the race is listed at 8-1 odds on the morning line. That horse is #8 Unmatched Wisdom for trainer Chad Brown. Unmatched Wisdom is 3-for-3 with today’s jockey Flavien Prat aboard, including 2-for-2 at this 1 1/8-mile distance with a wire-to-wire win in Saratoga’s Curlin Stakes two races ago. Unmatched Wisdom will need to rebound from a sub-par effort last time in the DraftKings Travers Stakes – hence the 8-1 odds – but there is reason to believe that will happen with the switch back to Prat and the cutback to 1 1/8 miles. Unmatched Wisdom also broke poorly and failed to show his usual early speed – or at least tactical speed – last time, and we can expect him to be in a better position pace-wise here today. If he can indeed rebound, a repeat of his 99 Beyer Speed Figure from the Curlin Stakes win will make him tough to beat versus these. Besides Unmatched Wisdom, the other real value in the Pennsylvania Derby will be betting against favorite #7 Dragoon Guard, who has won four races in a row but seems to have plateaued and topped-out at a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, which he has earned in each of his last three races. He’ll need to do better than that to win this race and thereby looks like a bet-against. For the exactas and trifectas along with Unmatched Wisdom, a pair of better bets will be Preakness Stakes winner #2 Seize the Grey, who clearly has the highest ceiling in this field and whose recent losses were against much tougher competition in the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun, and #5 Protective, who lost by just two lengths in the Peter Pan Stakes with a bad trip and consistently runs well at this distance.
The Play: Bet on #8 Unmatched Wisdom (8-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #2 Seize the Grey (5-1) and #5 Protective (8-1). Start your late Daily Doubles with 2 and 8 in this race, and hook them up with 3, 6, and 9 in Race 14.
Parx Racing, Race 14, $100,000 Parx Sprint Stakes, 6:40 p.m. ET
The get-out race on Saturday’s 14-race card will be the Parx Sprint, which drew a field of 11 sprinters set to go 6 ½ furlongs on the main track. #3 Twisted Ride owns nine career wins from 18 starts at Parx and now gets needed class relief after facing Grade 1 competition at Saratoga in both of his two most recent races. Amongst those last two starts was a respectable third against Nakatomi and Skelly in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap, and a repeat of that kind of an effort against this kind of competition back on his favorite track should be enough to get the victory. The main horse to fear is #6 Super Chow, who is cross-entered in a race this weekend at Laurel and may or may not run. If he does run here, Super Chow must be respected because he has already won three Grade 3 stakes in five starts this year and also finished a solid third in the Grade 2 Carter Handicap Presented by NYRA Bets at Aqueduct when beaten by only 1 ½ lengths. The other horse in the race to focus on will be #9 My Buddy B, who is exiting a similar stakes win at 6 ½ furlongs at Parx in his last race with a speed figure that’s competitive with the best horses in this field.
The Play: Bet #3 Twisted Ride (5-1) to win and use him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #6 Super Chow (7-2) and #9 My Buddy B (6-1).