Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

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Six Beginner Betting Tools

1. Start simple with an easy guide for how to bet on horse racing.
2. Not sure what that word means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its own. Allow us translate for you
3. What the heck is a speed figure? This beginner’s guide to speed figures has everything you need to know.
4. Betting on horse racing can be intimidating. Team ABR put together some Dos and Don’ts for the new fan getting started betting on racing.
5. We all make mistakes when it comes to betting on horse racing, here are eight lessons learned from experience.
6. Figure out how much each bet will cost in advance with our Gambling Calculator, presented by NYRA Bets.

Churchill Downs racing and wagering tops this weekend’s offerings for handicappers and racing fans with an 11-race card that includes six $275,000 stakes in races six through 11. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on the last two races on the card, the Grade 3 Blame Stakes and the Audubon Stakes, which goes as the finale. If we can hit these two get-out races on Saturday, we should ensure a winning day. Best of luck.

Saturday, June 1

Churchill Downs, Race 10, $275,000 Blame Stakes, 5:27 p.m. ET

The Blame Stakes has drawn a competitive field of 11 older horses entered to run 1 1/8 miles on the main dirt track. A case can be made for many of these horses based on their best efforts, but many do not currently appear to be in their best form. That leaves the Brad Cox-trained #2 Highland Falls as the horse to beat. Highland Falls exits a runner-up finish in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap behind Skippylongstocking. He lost two races ago in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap presented by Yaamava’ Resort & Casino at 1 ¼ miles, but other than that his form has been sharp going back to consecutive allowance wins at Churchill and Fair Grounds in November and January. He looks good enough to beat this field based on any of those four most recent outings. If good current form is the deciding factor in this race as opposed to back class, the horse with the best chance at an upset would be #9 Cagliostro, who returned from a six-month layoff last time and improved nicely with blinkers on to win a tough allowance race at Keeneland over #6 Dreamlike, who also was returning from an extended layoff in that race. Dreamlike is still a non-winner of two, but he’s nevertheless already accumulated a solid career resume that includes a close third-place finish by a head in the 2023 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino and a second-place finish in the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby, a half-length behind Saudi Crown. Let’s narrow down the Blame to these top three contenders and try to make some money in the exotics.

The Play: Bet to win on #2 Highland Falls (5-2) and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #6 Dreamlike (4-1) and #9 Cagliostro (6-1). You can also use these three horses in the first half of the late Daily Double.

Churchill Downs, Race 11, $275,000 Audubon Stakes, post time 5:58 p.m. ET

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The Audubon Stakes is a 1 1/8 turf race that has drawn a field of 10 3-year-olds to contest the Saturday nightcap. In a very competitive field, the nod goes to #5 Formidable Man, who shows a favorable improving pattern in every one of his four races so far in 2024, culminating last time with a second-place finish in Churchill’s Grade 2 American Turf Stakes Presented by TwinSpires, in which he came within 1 ½ lengths of being able to go wire-to-wire. He’s versatile from a pace standpoint, too, because he won a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Santa Anita two races ago when he failed to make the lead. He owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure in this field and just beat a couple of today’s top challengers. For the exactas, you can go for some value by including one of the longshots in the field. My choice is #10 Can Group, who was a Grade 2 winner last year in the Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland and then lost by only two lengths when fourth in the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He’s had possible excuses in all three of the recent losses with the loss three races ago coming on the dirt, the loss two races ago when needing the race in return from the sidelines, and the loss last time when coming from too far behind in a race with no pace. This could be the right spot for Can Group to score a positive turnaround.

The Play:  Bet #5 Formidable Man (5-1) to win and box him in the exacta with #10 Can Group (15-1). Play both horses in the back half of your late doubles.