One of the richest stakes races taking place in North America this weekend is the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks Presented by Stella Artois at Woodbine. Held at 1 1/8 miles on the all-weather Tapeta Footings main track, the Woodbine Oaks is open to 3-year-old fillies foaled in Canada, and 15 fillies, including one also-eligible contender, were entered to battle for the lucrative purse.

Woodbine Oaks entrant Kin's Concerto (Michael Burns/Woodbine)

On paper, the race looks absolutely wide open. There is no any standout favorite, and you can make a case for plenty of the fillies to vie for victory. But after analyzing the entries, we recommend #4 Kin’s Concerto as the most likely winner, even though she’s yet to cross the finish line first in a race.

Kin’s Concerto’s lone victory came in her debut sprinting three-quarters of a mile on the Woodbine Tapeta surface. On that occasion, she gobbled up ground from off the pace to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths, and when the winner was disqualified for interfering with the third-place finisher, Kin’s Concerto was elevated to first place.

Kin’s Concerto has subsequently performed well without winning in three straight starts while facing a variety of conditions. In a $75,000 allowance-optional claiming on Gulfstream Park turf course, Kin’s Concerto finished second behind next-out Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes winner Pounce. This was followed by a third-place finish in a $50,000 allowance-optional claimer on the Woodbine main track, a race from which runner-up Ready for Shirl returned to win her next start.

Most recently, Kin’s Concerto stretched out beyond one mile for the first time in a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claiming race on the Woodbine Tapeta surface. After rating in midfield behind slow quarter-mile fractions of :24.53, :49.92, and 1:15.42, Kin’s Concerto found herself boxed in along the inside, waiting for racing room while eventual winner Final Draft made a bold advance on the outside. Kin’s Concerto did find racing room down the homestretch, but as the pace accelerated, she couldn’t quite reel in Final Draft, finishing second by a head.

Kin’s Concerto has since worked a fast five-eighths of a mile in :59.80 at Woodbine, suggesting she’s ready to move forward in the Woodbine Oaks. It’s important to note Kin’s Concerto has competed exclusively in races that aren’t restricted to Canadian-bred runners, so tackling a restricted stakes like the Woodbine Oaks should suit this daughter of Mendelssohn just fine. Throw in the fact jockey Sofia Vives and trainer Josie Carroll have won at a 26% rate teaming up together over the last two months per Brisnet statistics, and Kin’s Concerto looms as a formidable win threat in the Woodbine Oaks.

Our main betting strategy for the Woodbine Oaks is simple: since the field is large and competitive, the odds on Kin’s Concerto shouldn’t dip too low, and even a $10 win bet can yield a respectable return on investment.

Woodbine Oaks contender War Painter (Michael Burns/Woodbine)

However, bettors with more capital to invest should also consider playing Kin’s Concerto over #11 War Painter in the exacta. If we can select the top two finishes in this tough race, we’ll be in line for an enticing payday.

War Painter was arguably the best filly in the 1 1/16-mile Princess Elizabeth Stakes on the Woodbine Tapeta main track last fall. Facing fellow Canadian-foaled fillies, War Painter raced wide throughout, launched a big rally to seize command in the stretch, and then failed by a head to hold off the rally of ground-saving longshot #1 Inudation. According to the Equibase GPS result chart, War Painter ran 18 feet (about two lengths) farther than Inudation due to her outside trip.

War Painter recently posted a half-length victory in an unrestricted allowance-optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles on Woodbine’s Tapeta surface. She’s posted fast workouts since then and should produce a highly competitive run for trainer Kevin Attard, who has won two of the last three editions of the Woodbine Oaks.

It’s tempting to box Kin’s Concerto and War Painter in the exacta so we can cash if they run 1-2 in either order. But in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Kin’s Concerto is a little faster than War Painter, and Kin’s Concerto’s placing against graded stakes winner Pounce during the winter at Gulfstream cements our belief that Kin’s Concerto is the most likely winner. We’ll take a stand and play our exacta only one way, maximizing the potential return on investment.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #4 Kin’s Concerto

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, Race 9, $10 to win on #4 Kin’s Concerto

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$20 to win on #4 Kin’s Concerto

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, Race 9, $20 to win on #4 Kin’s Concerto

$10 exacta: 4 with 11

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, Race 9, $10 exacta 4 with 11

Good luck, and enjoy the race!