Saturday’s Grade 2 Ainsworth Turf Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs hasn’t yet achieved Grade 1 status, but that may be coming. With its rich purse of $2 million (including $1 million from the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund), the grass dash over three-quarters of a mile has drawn a stellar field for its 2024 renewal.
Indeed, the horses entered in the Ainsworth Turf Sprint pretty much represent a “who’s who” of top-notch turf sprinters from around the United States. There’s even an accomplished British raider in the entries. Whoever prevails will earn a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Nov. 2 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar via the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series.
One of the most accomplished horses in the Ainsworth Turf Sprint field is #10 Nobals (6-1 morning-line odds), a 5-year-old gelding with eight stakes wins to his credit. Four of those stakes triumphs came during 2023, including a season-defining triumph in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Santa Anita Park.
But despite his achievements, Nobals may prove vulnerable in the Ainsworth Turf Sprint. He finished fifth in his lone previous start over the unique European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs, and these days he seems better running a bit shorter than three-quarters of a mile. Plus, Nobals ran below form in his first start of 2024, finishing fourth (though beaten only three-quarters of a length) in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga.
#1 Gear Jockey (30-1) is another accomplished entrant. He’s won the Ainsworth Turf Sprint twice, in 2021 and 2023. His obvious affinity for Kentucky Downs is appealing, but he hasn’t started since finishing 11th in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, beaten seven lengths by Nobals. Can Gear Jockey three-peat in the Ainsworth Turf Sprint while returning from a 10-month layoff? Last year he had a prep race before returning to Kentucky Downs, so the long break is a question mark.
For these reasons, #4 Cogburn (6-5) is hands-down the horse to beat in the 2024 Ainsworth Turf Sprint. Some bettors might hesitate to support Cogburn since his lone defeat from six turf starts came at Kentucky Downs in last year’s Ainsworth Turf Sprint; he finished fifth, beaten three-quarters of a length by Gear Jockey. It seemed like a step backward compared to his gritty victory in the 2023 Grade 3 Troy Stakes at Saratoga, in which he rallied to defeat Nobals by three-quarters of a length.
But Cogburn has elevated his game to a new level this year. In the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes Presented by Sentient Jet at Churchill Downs, he dominated by a deep field by 2 ¼ lengths. Then in the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes at Saratoga, he led all the way to crush his rivals by 3 ½ lengths, completing 5 ½ furlongs (11/16ths of a mile) in the North American record time of :59.80.
Since Cogburn is even better this year than last year, he can make amends for his Ainsworth Turf Sprint defeat while returning to Kentucky Downs. We recommend betting on this standout grass dasher to secure first prize on Saturday.
Other logical Ainsworth Turf Sprint contenders include #2 Axthelm (30-1), winner of a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Kentucky Downs last Sunday, and #3 One Timer (8-1), beaten a head by Gear Jockey in the 2023 Ainsworth Turf Sprint. One Timer will also be making a quick turnaround as he finished second by a head last Saturday in a $220,000 allowance race on this turf course.
One wildcard is #8 Khaadem (7-2), who has won back-to-back editions of the prestigious Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over the straight course at Royal Ascot in England. The 8-year-old gelding is clearly talented, but he’s finished 10th in two starts since winning the 2024 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee in June. It’s difficult to trust Khaadem to bring his “A” game away from Ascot, so we’ll oppose him in the Ainsworth Turf Sprint.
Instead, let’s play Cogburn on top of trifecta tickets using Nobals, Gear Jockey, Axthelm, and One Timer underneath. If we can successfully select the top three finishers in order, we’ll cash a nice payoff despite the fact Cogburn is likely to be a short price in the betting.
Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget
$1 trifecta: 4 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,2,3,10 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 11th race, $1 trifecta 4 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,2,3,10
Wagering Strategy on a $36 Budget
$3 trifecta: 4 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,2,3,10 ($36)
What to say at the betting window: Kentucky Downs, 11th race, $3 trifecta 4 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,2,3,10
Good luck, and enjoy the race!
Pick 3
10-10-4
10-10-4
$115
Daily Double
10-4
10-4
$43
Consolation Pick 3
10-11-4
10-11-4
$5
Superfecta
4-8-2-10
4-8-2-10
$61
Pick 3
10-10-4
10-10-4
$115
Daily Double
10-4
10-4
$43
Consolation Pick 3
10-11-4
10-11-4
$5
Superfecta
4-8-2-10
4-8-2-10
$61
