The Grade 2, $2 million FanDuel TV Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes is one of six stakes races with a $2 million purse Saturday at Kentucky Downs on one of the richest days of turf racing in North America. It is also a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf Nov. 2 at Del Mar.
The Kentucky Turf Cup drew a field of 11 led by last year’s Turf Cup winner Get Smokin, who enters the race off a win in the Grade 2 United Nations Stakes. Another strong last-race effort appears to belong to Integration, who finished second in the Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes four weeks ago. Sugoi was fifth in that race, but two starts before that won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes at the same 1 ½-mile distance of the Turf Cup. Cathkin Peak just won the John’s Call Stakes on grass at the longer distance of one mile and five-eighths and fits on all counts. Tawny Port won the 2022 John’s Call and just missed in the United Nations, where he was a head and a nose behind Get Smokin, with Grand Sonata second in the three-horse photo finish. Anglophile won the Grade 3 2023 National Thoroughbred League Dueling Grounds Derby (now the Nashville Derby this year) at Kentucky Downs one year ago but is winless in seven races since. Highway Robber won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes in August and appears to fit versus these. Chief Little Rock travels from the U.K. for world-renowned trainer Aiden O’Brien and one race before last won the Group 2 Heider Family Gallinule Stakes. Balladeer won the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship Stakes one year ago this week in California but is winless in six races since then. King Curlin rounds out the field off a fourth-place effort behind Highway Robber last month, but he has won at this 1 ½-mile turf distance in January.
How the race may be run in the early stages:
Get Smokin won the 2023 FanDuel Kentucky Turf Cup when leading from start to finish, which is the same way he won the United Nations Stakes last month, both coming with jockey Fernando De La Cruz in the saddle. Considering that strategy has been a winning one, it is likely Get Smokin and De La Cruz will use it once again.
However, there’s another “need the lead” type in the field and that is Balladeer, whose last two wins were earned leading every step of the way and who has led from the start though the first mile in each of his last eight races. If both Balladeer and Get Smokin run as expected and battle for the lead – even if they run more slowly than average for this type of race – it is highly probable the mental energy of running next to each other, instead of being on a clear lead, could take its toll. In that case both could be susceptible to being passed in the last quarter mile. The horses best able to stalk the pace have a big shot to succeed.
Analysis and win contenders:
The top two potential stalkers are Sugoi and Cathkin Peak and both are trained by Mike Maker, who has won five of the last 10 editions of the Turf Cup, most recently in 2022 with Red Knight and in 2019 with Zulu Alpha. Maker gets the services of two top jockeys, Irad Ortiz Jr. and his brother Jose Ortiz, who combined have won 415 races to date in 2024 with their horses earning $38 million in prize money. A quick check of Race Lens statistics reveals that over the last five years, when the Ortiz brothers ride for Maker in stakes races on grass at similar distances to this race, they have won seven of 29 (25%) and finished in the top three in 13 of 29 races (45%). Irad Ortiz Jr. rides Sugoi for the first time while Jose Ortiz rode Cathkin Peak for the first time in the horse’s most recent race on Aug. 21, winning the John’s Call Stakes on the grass at a distance one furlong farther than the distance of this race.
Sugoi and Cathkin Peak were recent purchases by Maker, who has a keen eye for horses which may be able to succeed in these types of marathon turf races even if they have never run these long-distance races previously. Cathkin Peak is a perfect example; before winning the John's Call he had never run as far in 19 races prior to making his first start for Maker. Similarly, Maker purchased Sugoi in April and the horse immediately ran 1 ½ miles for the first time and won the Louisville Stakes right off the bat.
Both Sugoi and Cathkin Peak can win on the lead or from off the pace and are likely to be relaxed in mid-pack in the early stages, with either or both launching bids when the pace quickens with about a quarter mile to run. Of the pair – who both carry enticing morning-line odds – I give Sugoi slight preference based on his best recent effort when second in the Chorleywood Stakes with a 114 Equibase Speed Figure. Cathkin Peak earned his best Equibase speed figure of 2024, a 107, winning the John’s Call and can certainly run as well or better in his second start since moving to the Maker barn.
Chief Little Rock ships in from Europe for world renowned trainer Aiden O’Brien, who over the last five years has a pretty solid record of 7-4-4 in 25 races with horses running in North America who last started overseas. As a son of Galileo, one of the top sires in the world, there is no doubt the horse can run well at this distance. Although Chief Little Rock ran poorly when 12th of 14 in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, he won the Gallinule Stakes in May with a 107 figure which tells us he fits with these. Frankie Dettori, who has already won five of 18 races this year at Kentucky Downs, takes the mount and we can expect Chief Little Rock to be competitive at this level and distance.
Another horse that deserves mention is Tawny Port, who must be considered for the top three. His career record is 5-3-4 in 21 races including 1-2-3 in nine lifetime starts on turf, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In four of his last five races, Tawny Port has been beaten a neck or less, with back-to-back 114-figure efforts, most recently when finishing just a head and nose behind Get Smokin in the United Nations. Tawny Port won the 1 5/8-mile John’s Call Stakes in 2023 with a 108 figure, the same race Cathkin Peak won in 2024 with a 107 figure. So, if we consider Cathkin Peak to be a contender, we also must not discount the chances of Tawny Port.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Anglophile (113), Balladeer (109), Get Smokin (114), Grand Sonata (114), Highway Robber (112), Integration (118) and King Curlin (108).
Main Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Sugoi
Cathkin Peak
Chief Little Rock
Next contender: Tawny Port
Pick 3
11-10-10
11-10-10
$362
Pick 4
10-11-10/(13-16)-10
10-11-10/(13-16)-10
$9,700
Pick 5
7-10-11-10/(13-16)-10
7-10-11-10/(13-16)-10
$56,817
Daily Double
10-10
10-10
$89
Consolation Pick 3
11-10-11
11-10-11
$27
Superfecta
10-1-7-2
10-1-7-2
$161
Trifecta
10-1-7
10-1-7
$334
Consolation Double
10-11
10-11
$4
Pick 3
11-10-10
11-10-10
$362
Pick 4
10-11-10/(13-16)-10
10-11-10/(13-16)-10
$9,700
Pick 5
7-10-11-10/(13-16)-10
7-10-11-10/(13-16)-10
$56,817
Daily Double
10-10
10-10
$89
Consolation Pick 3
11-10-11
11-10-11
$27
Superfecta
10-1-7-2
10-1-7-2
$161
Trifecta
10-1-7
10-1-7
$334
Consolation Double
10-11
10-11
$4
