The Grade 2, $250,000 Mother Goose Stakes is Saturday's featured race at Belmont at the Big A featuring a field of eight 3-year-old fillies racing 1 1/8 miles.
The field for the Mother Goose includes Gun Song and Tarifa, the second and third finishers in the Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes five weeks ago. Prior to that, Gun Song won the Cathryn Sophia Stakes while Tarifa was previously seen winning the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks presented by Fasig-Tipton back in March. Life Talk won the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes last fall at the distance of the Mother Goose and enters the race off a runner-up effort in the Seneca Stakes. The only other stakes winner in the field is Call Another Play, who won the Weber City Miss Stakes in April. Dorothy’s Dreams enters the race off a pair of wins in allowance company and runs in a stakes race around two turns for the first time. Just Music brings a 2-for-15 record into the Mother Goose and runs in a stakes race for the first time. Pretty Ana has one win in seven starts and also runs in a stakes for the first time in her career. Headline Numbers is trying stakes competition for the first time but won her debut in July and then was placed first via disqualification in her only other race.
Main win contenders:
Until last year, the Mother Goose Stakes was run in June, and the change to the fall created a new graded stakes for 3-year-old fillies at this time of year and a new race where trainers could point their horses. With that in mind we look to the final prep race that last year’s Mother Goose winner, Xigera, used as a springboard to victory, which was the Seneca Stakes at Churchill Downs about five weeks earlier. The only horse in this year’s field coming out of the Seneca Stakes is Life Talk, who closed strongly to be beaten a half a length at the wire and might have won with just a couple more yards to run. Now stretching out from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, Life Talk is very likely to improve off the career-best 93 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that race, particularly as she is now making her second start since returning from more than five months off. Better still, last December Life Talk won the Demoiselle Stakes at the distance of the Mother Goose, here at Aqueduct, also when stretching out from 1 1/6 miles to 1 1/8 miles. The Seneca was also the second race since trainer Todd Pletcher put blinkers on Life Talk. As such, Life Talk could improve off her Seneca effort and win this race.
Gun Song will likely be the betting favorite in this race by virtue of her neck defeat at the hands of division leader Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion Stakes five weeks ago. In that race Gun Song pressed the early leader in second for about three quarters of a mile then took over by a half a length before Thorpedo Anna kicked into high gear. Nevertheless, Gun Song was very game down to the wire. She was disregarded by bettors in the race at 44.80-1 odds even though she had won the Cathryn Sophia Stakes four weeks earlier and finished second in the Monmouth Oaks prior to that. Similar to Life Talk, Gun Song also possesses a win at this 1 1/8-mile distance, having won the George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in May. That effort earned a 95 figure, which she duplicated in the Monmouth Oaks. Gun Song earned a much stronger 112 figure in the Cotillion, but that might be taken with a grain of salt here because it was so much higher than her previous best efforts. Therefore, comparing her pair of 95 figure efforts in the Monmouth Oaks and Black Eyed Susan to the 93 and 91 figures Life Talk earned in the Seneca Stakes and Demoiselle Stakes, Gun Song may be as fast as Life Talk and certainly can win, but is no standout.
Headline Numbers is a very interesting filly, and not just because she’s trained by Chad Brown (who also saddles Pretty Ana). Headline Numbers made her career debut in July, well after the prep races for the Kentucky Oaks and the Oaks itself, which I’m sure was disappointing for the connections as she won by nearly 12 lengths with speed to spare. Stretching out to the distance of the Mother Goose for her second career start in August, Headline Numbers stalked in second in the early stages, got the lead in the stretch, then came up a half-length short on the wire. However, when the winner was disqualified, Headline Numbers inherited the win. As a daughter of Gun Runner (the same sire as both Gun Song and Life Talk), this filly has a promising career ahead of her. She improved from an 88 figure in her debut to 91 and is likely to improve again, Headline Numbers has a shot to post the upset in this race.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Call Another Play (90), Dorothy’s Dreams (92), Just Music (96), Pretty Ana (90) and Tarifa (106).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Life Talk
Gun Song
Headline Numbers
Superfecta
3-5-4-1
3-5-4-1
$4
Grand Slam
3/5/6-5/6/7-1/3/5/11-3
3/5/6-5/6/7-1/3/5/11-3
$228
Superfecta
3-5-4-1
3-5-4-1
$4
Grand Slam
3/5/6-5/6/7-1/3/5/11-3
3/5/6-5/6/7-1/3/5/11-3
$228
