The $500,000, Grade 1 Fasig-Tipton Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes drew a quality cast of nine 3-year-old fillies for a 1 3/16-mile turf stakes that looks like the best betting race from among four graded stakes on the July 6 card at the Belmont at the Big A meet.
Saturday’s card also features the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes, the $200,000 John A. Nerud Stakes, and the $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes. “America’s Day at the Races” offers coverage of the Belmont at the Big A spring-summer meet on FOX Sports affiliates.
Sure to tickle many a bettor’s fancy in the Belmont Oaks is #8 Cinderella’s Dream for the potent trio of owner Godolphin, trainer Charlie Appleby, and jockey William Buick. When this UK-based dream team ships across the Atlantic to compete in North America, it’s wise to pay special attention.
Since 2020, Appleby has amassed 32 wins from 86 starters in North America for a 37% strike rate with 31 of the wins coming in graded stakes and 19 Grade 1 wins. So, he’s not just shipping and winning, Appleby runners are winning many of the most important turf races in North America. Likewise, the Appleby-Buick partnership has produced 15 wins from 33 starts in North America since 2020 for an exceptional 45% win rate in that span that includes 13 Grade 1 wins.
Thus, it stands to reason that Cinderella’s Dream should be atop your bets in the Belmont Oaks, right? Not so fast.
While Appleby has continued to win at a very strong clip in the last 18 months or so since the start of 2023, he has leveled off just a bit to a 29% win percentage with five Grade 1 wins. He’s been very good but not quite dominant of late. There are two other reasons to take a stand against Cinderella’s Dream, who began her career with four straight wins before running seventh most recently in the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas.
First, she’s never competed in a race longer than one mile, so she’ll be navigating an extra three-sixteenths of a mile in the Belmont Oaks. She’s also very likely to face soft ground for the first time in the Belmont Oaks with a rain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday in Jamaica, N.Y.
With those variables in play, I’ll look to a couple of other fillies to play on top of an exacta ticket.
I’m hoping for a solid price on #3 Fun With Flags, who has made all four of her previous starts in France with three wins and a second in the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre. She’s won at distances ranging from 7 ½ furlongs to 1 ¼ miles on turf ranging from soft to heavy. This is a significant step up in class but I feel confident she’ll love the distance and expected softer ground.
I also have a ton of respect for #7 She Feels Pretty, who won her season debut by 5 ¾ lengths on turf rated good in a stakes race on Preakness Stakes weekend at Pimlico. That was her first start since she finished third, beaten by a half-length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf after winning a Grade 1 race at Woodbine earlier in her 2-year-old season, also on turf rated good. I think she likes a bit of give in the turf and, expect the classy She Feels Pretty to run well.
Underneath, I plan to use #2 Dynamic Pricing coming off a win on yielding turf in the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes Presented by TwinSpires on the Longines Kentucky Oaks undercard at Churchill Downs for elite U.S. turf trainer Chad Brown.
I feel better about beating Cinderella’s Dream in the exacta than leaving her out of my trifecta, so I’ll focus on an exacta strategy for the Belmont Oaks.
Exacta Strategy on a $12 Budget
$3 exacta 3,7 with 2,3,7 ($12)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 9, $3 exacta part wheel, 3,7 with 2,3,7
Exacta Strategy on a $40 Budget
$10 exacta 3,7 with 2,3,7 ($40)
What to say at the betting window: Belmont at the Big A, Race 9, $10 exacta part wheel, 3,7 with 2,3,7
Pick 3
5-5-8
5-5-8
$1,030
Superfecta
8-6-7-1
8-6-7-1
$82
Pick 3
5-5-8
5-5-8
$1,030
Superfecta
8-6-7-1
8-6-7-1
$82
