The $1.25 million, Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes Saturday at Saratoga drew an exceptionally strong field of eight including Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun winner Fierceness, Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch and Thorpedo Anna, who is coming off a win in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and will attempt to become the first filly to win the “Mid-Summer Derby” since 1915.
The Travers depth doesn’t end there as the Jim Dandy runner-up and third place finishers, Sierra Leone and Batten Down, respectively, are also entered as well as the one-two finishers in the Curlin Stakes last month, Unmatched Wisdom and Corporate Power. Honor Marie rounds out the field off a rallying fourth-place effort in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes behind Dornoch when last seen in June.
Analysis and top win contenders:
The way this race will be run in the early stages will almost certainly decide which horse may, or may not, be in contention to win the race in the final eighth of a mile. Five of the eight contenders might be found on the lead in the opening quarter mile, or tracking just off the pace. Those that are wide going around the first turn or expend too much energy trying to get the lead may be found wanting in the final stages. Considering two of those, Dornoch and Fierceness, draw the outside two spots in the gate, jockey strategy during the first portion of the race may be significant in determining whether either can win given that they earned recent Equibase Speed Figures of 107 and 108, respectively. Even if repeated, these figures offer no superior margin against four other horses’ best recent figures: Thorpedo Anna (105), Sierra Leone (106), Unmatched Wisdom (107) and Corporate Power (105).
Considering Unmatched Wisdom won the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga five weeks ago leading from start to finish, I believe jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will try to get the lead in the opening strides. Thorpedo Anna was second for the first mile when winning both the DK Horse Acorn Stakes and Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga and can take up second position easily. That forces Dornoch and Fierceness either to settle for being three or four paths wide going into the first turn or to use a lot of energy trying to get in front of Unmatched Wisdom and Thorpedo Anna before that point. On the other hand, if either Fierceness or Dornoch do get the lead before the first turn, they might use too much energy to do so and will be susceptible to being passed in the stretch, with both Thorpedo Anna and Unmatched Wisdom settling behind in second and third or third and fourth. That scenario benefits both Unmatched Wisdom and Thorpedo Anna. Unmatched Wisdom won after stalking in second early one race before the Curlin, and Thorpedo Anna has proven very successful coming from as far back as fourth after a quarter-mile to win.
As it appears, both Thorpedo Anna and Unmatched Wisdom have an edge based on their positions in the gate and the likely early pace scenarios. This should shape up as a fantastic race, and they are the two horses with a best chance to win in my opinion. Thorpedo Anna is on a pattern of improving Equibase Speed Figures, having gone from 94 winning the Longines Kentucky Oaks, to 99 winning the Acorn Stakes, and then to 105 in the CCA Oaks, and since the latter pair of races were at Saratoga this filly gets slight preference to win the Travers and etch her name in the history books as the first female winner since Lady Rotha 109 years ago. Unmatched Wisdom is also on an improving pattern, from 92 in his debut in May, to 100 winning in June, and then to 107 when victorious in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga.
The ”X” factor is Corporate Power, who may be ignored in the wagering in spite of missing by one length at the end in the Curlin behind Unmatched Wisdom. He too is on a pattern for improvement, going from a 94 figure three races back to 103 winning the Sir Barton Stakes Sponsored by Brandon and Diannah Perry to Benefit TAA in May and then to 105 in the Curlin. Since his effort in the Curlin came off a two month layoff, Corporate Power may improve again. Additionally, it must be noted his sire Curlin leads all sires of horses in the 2024 Travers in terms of graded stakes winners at 10 furlongs on dirt, having eight different horses which have won similar races (from 31 horses). Trainer Shug McGaughey won the 2019 Travers with Code of Honor, who won the Dwyer Stakes one month earlier, with the same 105 figure Corporate Power earned in his most recent race. I will strongly keep this in mind when considering bets involving this race because the pattern is impossible to ignore.
About the rest: Dornoch has shown a lot of fight in his last two starts – the Belmont Stakes and the Haskell Stakes – where he led at one or more points in each of the races but then was second with an eighth of a mile to go. In each instance, Dornoch found something extra both physically and mentally to prevail, and certainly the 106 and 107 figures earned, respectively, fit with the best in the field if repeated. There’s still a question of where he may be positioned in the opening furlongs of this year’s Travers. He could be third, fourth of fifth going into the first turn or around the turn, which is unfamiliar to him, or he could be vying for the lead and expending a lot of energy going in the early stages. Both scenarios aren’t conducive to the kind of efforts he put forth in the Belmont or Haskell, so it may be difficult for him to win his third straight race.
Sierra Leone will likely be last or second to last (behind Honor Marie) in the early stages and make his usual later run. However, as shown in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (second), Belmont (third) and Jim Dandy (second) he usually has his work cut out for him, although it must be noted the 109 figure earned in the Derby is good enough to win if repeated and if none of the others improves to that level. Otherwise, there’s no doubt Sierra Leone can get up for second or third in the late stages once more.
Fierceness got back into winning form with a very sharp effort in the Jim Dandy with a 108 figure, almost as good as the 110 figure earned winning the Curlin Florida Derby this past spring. However, as mentioned above, I just don’t see a pace scenario which favors him repeating either of those efforts in this field.
Batten Down was no match for Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy as he finished 5 ¾ lengths in back of the latter. His best figure is 98 and it would take significant improvement to run as well as the top contenders in this field. Honor Marie won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November with a 98 figure and earned the same figure when a well-beaten fourth in the Belmont Stakes behind Dornoch.
Win Contenders in preference/probability order:
Thorpedo Anna
Corporate Power
Unmatched Wisdom
Pick 4
4-5/6-3-8
4-5/6-3-8
$314
Pick 5
3-4-5/6-3-8
3-4-5/6-3-8
$4,308
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$102,094
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$592
Superfecta
8-1-2-7
8-1-2-7
$11
Pick 4
4-5/6-3-8
4-5/6-3-8
$314
Pick 5
3-4-5/6-3-8
3-4-5/6-3-8
$4,308
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$102,094
Pick 6
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
4-3-4-5/6-3-8
$592
Superfecta
8-1-2-7
8-1-2-7
$11
